Development and validation of neoadjuvant rectal score-based signature nomograms to predict overall survival and disease-free survival in locally advanced rectal cancer: a retrospective, double center, cohort study

Modified neoadjuvant rectal score as a novel prognostic model for rectal cancer patients who underwent chemoradiotherapy

BACKGROUND

The neoadjuvant rectal score (NAR score) has recently been proposed as a better prognostic model than the conventional TNM classification for rectal cancer patients that have undergone neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy. We recently developed an apoptosis-detection technique for assessing the viability of residual tumors in resected specimens after chemoradiotherapy. This study aimed to establish an improved prognostic classification by combining the NAR score and the assessment of the apoptosis of residual cancer cells.

METHODS

We retrospectively enrolled 319 rectal cancer patients who underwent chemoradiotherapy followed by radical surgery. The recurrence-free survival and overall survival of the four models were compared: TNM stage, NAR score, modified TNM stage by re-staging according to cancer cell viability, and modified NAR score also by re-staging.

RESULTS

Downstaging of the ypT stage was observed in 15.5% of cases, whereas only 4.5% showed downstaging of ypN stage. C-index was highest for the modified NAR score (0.715), followed by the modified TNM, TNM, and NAR score. Similarly, Akaike's information criterion was smallest in the modified NAR score (926.2), followed by modified TNM, TNM, and NAR score, suggesting that the modified NAR score was the best among these four models. The overall survival results were similar: C-index was the highest (0.767) and Akaike's information criterion was the smallest (383.9) for the modified NAR score among the four models tested.

CONCLUSION

We established a novel prognostic model, for rectal cancer patients that have undergone neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy, using a combination of apoptosis-detecting immunohistochemistry and neoadjuvant rectal scores.

A Modified NAR Scoring Model Incorporating Immune Infiltration Characteristics to Better Predict Long-Term Survival Following Neoadjuvant Radiotherapy in Rectal Cancer

(1) Background: The neoadjuvant rectal (NAR) score has been developed as a prognostic tool for survival in locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC). However, the NAR score only incorporates weighted cT, ypT, and ypN categories. This long-term follow-up study aims to modify a novel prognostic scoring model and identify a short-term endpoint for survival. (2) Methods: The prognostic factors for overall survival (OS) were explored through univariate and multivariate analyses. Based on Cox regression modeling, nomogram plots were constructed. Area under the curve (AUC) and concordance indices were used to evaluate the performance of the nomogram. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was conducted to compare the efficiency of the nomogram with other prognostic factors. (3) Results: After a long-term follow-up, the 5-year OS was 67.1%. The mean NAR score was 20.4 ± 16.3. Multivariate analysis indicated that CD8+ T-cell, lymphovascular invasion, and the NAR score were independent predictors of OS. The modified NAR scoring model, incorporating immune infiltration characteristics, exhibited a high C-index of 0.739 for 5-year OS, significantly outperforming any individual factor. Moreover, the predictive value of the nomogram was superior to the AJCC stage and pathological complete regression at 3-year, 5-year, and 10-year time points, respectively. Over time, the model's predictions of long-term survival remained consistent and improved in accuracy. (4) Conclusions: The modified NAR scoring model, incorporating immune infiltration characteristics, demonstrates high accuracy and consistency in predicting OS.