Still crazy after all these years: the challenge of AIDS denialism for science

Science and the public: Debate, denial, and skepticism

When the scientific method yields discoveries that imperil people’s lifestyle or worldviews or impinge on corporate vested interests, the public and political response can be anything but favorable. Sometimes the response slides into overt denial of scientific facts, although this denial is often claimed to involve “skepticism”. We outline the distinction between true skepticism and denial with several case studies. We propose some guidelines to enable researchers to differentiate legitimate critical engagement from bad-faith harassment, and to enable members of the public to pursue their skeptical engagement and critique without such engagement being mistaken for harassment.

On the Viability of Conspiratorial Beliefs

Conspiratorial ideation is the tendency of individuals to believe that events and power relations are secretly manipulated by certain clandestine groups and organisations. Many of these ostensibly explanatory conjectures are non-falsifiable, lacking in evidence or demonstrably false, yet public acceptance remains high. Efforts to convince the general public of the validity of medical and scientific findings can be hampered by such narratives, which can create the impression of doubt or disagreement in areas where the science is well established. Conversely, historical examples of exposed conspiracies do exist and it may be difficult for people to differentiate between reasonable and dubious assertions. In this work, we establish a simple mathematical model for conspiracies involving multiple actors with time, which yields failure probability for any given conspiracy. Parameters for the model are estimated from literature examples of known scandals, and the factors influencing conspiracy success and failure are explored. The model is also used to estimate the likelihood of claims from some commonly-held conspiratorial beliefs; these are namely that the moon-landings were faked, climate-change is a hoax, vaccination is dangerous and that a cure for cancer is being suppressed by vested interests. Simulations of these claims predict that intrinsic failure would be imminent even with the most generous estimates for the secret-keeping ability of active participants—the results of this model suggest that large conspiracies (≥1000 agents) quickly become untenable and prone to failure. The theory presented here might be useful in counteracting the potentially deleterious consequences of bogus and anti-science narratives, and examining the hypothetical conditions under which sustainable conspiracy might be possible.

An AIDS-denialist online community on a Russian social networking service: patterns of interactions with newcomers and rhetorical strategies of persuasion

BACKGROUND

The rise of social media proved to be a fertile ground for the expansion of the acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS)-denialist movement (in the form of online communities). While there is substantial literature devoted to disproving AIDS-denialist views, there is a lack of studies exploring AIDS-denialists online communities that interact with an external environment.

OBJECTIVE

We explored three research areas: (1) reasons for newcomers to come to an AIDS-denialist community, (2) the patterns of interactions of the community with the newcomers, and (3) rhetorical strategies that denialists use for persuasion in the veracity of their views.

METHODS

We studied the largest AIDS-denialist community on one of the most popular social networking services in Russia. We used netnography as a method for collecting data for qualitative analysis and observed the community for 9 months (at least 2-3 times a week). While doing netnography, we periodically downloaded community discussions. In total, we downloaded 4821 posts and comments for analysis. Grounded theory approach was used for data analysis.

RESULTS

Most users came to the community for the following reasons: their stories did not fit the unitary picture of AIDS disease progression translated by popular medical discourse, health problems, concern about HIV-positive tests, and desire to dissuade community members from false AIDS beliefs. On the basis of strength in AIDS-denialist beliefs, we constructed a typology of the newcomers consisting of three ideal-typical groups: (1) convinced: those who already had become denialists before coming to the group, (2) doubters: those who were undecided about the truth of either human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) science theory or AIDS-denialist theory, and (3) orthodox: those who openly held HIV science views. Reception of a newcomer mainly depended on the newcomer's belief status. Reception was very warm for the convinced, cold or slightly hostile for the doubters, and extremely hostile or derisive for the orthodox. We identified seven main rhetorical strategies of persuasion used by the denialists on the "undecided".

CONCLUSIONS

Contrary to the widespread public health depiction of AIDS denialists as totally irrational, our study suggests that some of those who become AIDS denialists have sufficiently reasonable grounds to suspect that "something is wrong" with scientific theory, because their personal experience contradicts the unitary picture of AIDS disease progression. Odd and inexplicable practices of some AIDS centers only fuel these people's suspicions. We can conclude that public health practitioners' practices may play a role in generating AIDS-denialist sentiments. In interactions with the newcomers, the experienced community members highlighted the importance of personal autonomy and freedom of choice in decision making consistent with the consumerist ideology of health care. The study findings suggest that health care workers should change a one-size-fits-all mode of counseling for a more complex and patient-tailored approach, allowing for diversity of disease progression scenarios and scientific uncertainty.

The Psychology of AIDS Denialism

More than 34 million people in the world are living with HIV/AIDS. Each year there are nearly three million new HIV infections and nearly two million AIDS-related deaths. In the face of these staggering statistics, there is a vocal group of individuals who deny reality and claim that HIV is harmless or may not even exist at all. Mirroring the AIDS pandemic itself, AIDS denialism is a threat to public health. AIDS denialism propagates the views of a few rogue scientists through press releases, social media, and a significant presence on the Internet. AIDS Denialists aim to undermine HIV testing, prevention, and treatment. Most tragic has been the adoption of AIDS Denialist views by public officials, perhaps none more infamous than former President of South Africa Thabo Mbeki. This article examines the psychology of AIDS denialism, focusing on its emergence from the earliest days of AIDS and its grounding in conspiracy thinking and medical mistrust. The article also describes the tactics and rhetoric of AIDS denialism and those who are most vulnerable to AIDS Denialist claims. Recommendations are offered for countering AIDS denialism by exposing its fake experts and baseless claims.

The role of conspiracist ideation and worldviews in predicting rejection of science

Background

Among American Conservatives, but not Liberals, trust in science has been declining since the 1970's. Climate science has become particularly polarized, with Conservatives being more likely than Liberals to reject the notion that greenhouse gas emissions are warming the globe. Conversely, opposition to genetically-modified (GM) foods and vaccinations is often ascribed to the political Left although reliable data are lacking. There are also growing indications that rejection of science is suffused by conspiracist ideation, that is the general tendency to endorse conspiracy theories including the specific beliefs that inconvenient scientific findings constitute a “hoax.”

Methodology/Principal findings

We conducted a propensity weighted internet-panel survey of the U.S. population and show that conservatism and free-market worldview strongly predict rejection of climate science, in contrast to their weaker and opposing effects on acceptance of vaccinations. The two worldview variables do not predict opposition to GM. Conspiracist ideation, by contrast, predicts rejection of all three scientific propositions, albeit to greatly varying extents. Greater endorsement of a diverse set of conspiracy theories predicts opposition to GM foods, vaccinations, and climate science.

Conclusions

Free-market worldviews are an important predictor of the rejection of scientific findings that have potential regulatory implications, such as climate science, but not necessarily of other scientific issues. Conspiracist ideation, by contrast, is associated with the rejection of all scientific propositions tested. We highlight the manifold cognitive reasons why conspiracist ideation would stand in opposition to the scientific method. The involvement of conspiracist ideation in the rejection of science has implications for science communicators.

NASA faked the moon landing--therefore, (climate) science is a hoax: an anatomy of the motivated rejection of science

Although nearly all domain experts agree that carbon dioxide emissions are altering the world's climate, segments of the public remain unconvinced by the scientific evidence. Internet blogs have become a platform for denial of climate change, and bloggers have taken a prominent role in questioning climate science. We report a survey of climate-blog visitors to identify the variables underlying acceptance and rejection of climate science. Our findings parallel those of previous work and show that endorsement of free-market economics predicted rejection of climate science. Endorsement of free markets also predicted the rejection of other established scientific findings, such as the facts that HIV causes AIDS and that smoking causes lung cancer. We additionally show that, above and beyond endorsement of free markets, endorsement of a cluster of conspiracy theories (e.g., that the Federal Bureau of Investigation killed Martin Luther King, Jr.) predicted rejection of climate science as well as other scientific findings. Our results provide empirical support for previous suggestions that conspiratorial thinking contributes to the rejection of science. Acceptance of science, by contrast, was strongly associated with the perception of a consensus among scientists.

Use of dietary supplements among people living with HIV/AIDS is associated with vulnerability to medical misinformation on the internet

Background

Use of dietary supplements is common among people living with HIV/AIDS. Because dietary supplements are used in the context of other health behaviors, they may have direct and indirect health benefits. However, supplements may also be associated with vulnerability to medical misinformation and unfounded health claims. We examined use of dietary supplements among people living with HIV/AIDS (PLWH) and the association between use of dietary supplements and believing medical misinformation.

Methods

A convenience sample of 268 men and 76 women living with HIV was recruited from AIDS services and clinics in Atlanta, GA. Participants completed measures of demographic and health characteristics, dietary supplement use, beliefs about dietary supplements, internet use, and an internet evaluation task designed to assess vulnerability to medical misinformation.

Results

One out of four PLWH currently used at least one dietary supplement product excluding vitamins. Dietary supplement use was associated with higher education and greater use of the internet for health-related information. Dietary supplement users also endorsed greater believability and trust in unfounded claims for HIV cures.

Conclusions

Dietary supplement use is common among PLWH and is associated with a broad array of health information seeking behaviors. Interventions are needed to reduce the vulnerability of PLWH, particularly dietary supplement users, to medical misinformation propagated on the internet.

HIV-related conspiracy beliefs and its relationships with HIV testing and unprotected sex among men who have sex with men in Tshwane (Pretoria), South Africa

The objective of this study was to determine extent of HIV conspiracy belief endorsement among men who have sex with men (MSM) in Pretoria, and assess whether endorsement of HIV conspiracy beliefs are associated with inconsistent condom use and never testing for HIV. A cross-sectional survey using respondent-driven sampling was conducted between February and August 2009. A high proportion of respondents endorsed HIV conspiracy beliefs. MSM commonly endorsed beliefs related to AIDS information being held back from the general public (51.0%), HIV being a man-made virus (25.5%), and people being used as guinea pigs in HIV research and with HIV treatments (approximately 20%). Bisexually- or heterosexually-identified MSM were significantly more likely to endorse conspiracy beliefs compared to homosexually-identified MSM (38.5% vs. 14.7%). Endorsing conspiracy beliefs was not associated with unprotected anal intercourse; however, it was significantly associated with not having been HIV tested (AOR: 2.4; 95% CI: 1.1-5.7). Endorsing beliefs in HIV conspiracies reflects a mistrust in government institutions and systems which could be an impediment to seeking HIV-related services, including HIV counseling and testing.

"There is no proof that HIV causes AIDS": AIDS denialism beliefs among people living with HIV/AIDS

AIDS denialists offer false hope to people living with HIV/AIDS by claiming that HIV is harmless and that AIDS can be cured with natural remedies. The current study examined the prevalence of AIDS denialism beliefs and their association to health-related outcomes among people living with HIV/AIDS. Confidential surveys and unannounced pill counts were collected from a convenience sample of 266 men and 77 women living with HIV/AIDS that was predominantly middle-aged and African American. One in five participants stated that there is no proof that HIV causes AIDS and that HIV treatments do more harm than good. AIDS denialism beliefs were more often endorsed by people who more frequently used the internet after controlling for confounds. Believing that there is a debate among scientists about whether HIV causes AIDS was related to refusing HIV treatments and poorer health outcomes. AIDS denialism beliefs may be common among people living with HIV/AIDS and such beliefs are associated with poor health outcomes.