Men Who have Sex with Men Who Believe that Their State has a HIV Criminal Law Report Higher Condomless Anal Sex than Those Who are Unsure of the Law in Their State

HIV Criminalization Laws and Enforcement: Assessing the Relationship Between HIV Criminalization at the State Level, Policing at the County Level, and County-level HIV Incidence Rates

The U.S. HIV epidemic disproportionately affects Black and Hispanic communities via ecosocial determinants of excess HIV risk, including HIV criminalization laws and overpolicing. This study used multilevel modeling to test the hypothesis that HIV criminalization laws are associated with higher county HIV incidence, and that this effect is modified by heavier county-level policing. County-level HIV incidence data from 2010 to 2019 were merged with county-level demographic, socioeconomic, and jailed population rate data for counties with stable HIV incidence rates (rates generated from a numerator of at least 12) for > 5 years. Multivariable multilevel (hierarchical) models for count-rate data were fitted, with years nested inside counties, and counties nested within states. An HIV criminalization law was associated with higher countywide HIV incidence rate for the general, Black, and Hispanic populations (aRR = 1.14, 1.30, and 1.32, respectively). This association was modified by an increased county jailed population rate for the general and Black populations.

Development and Validation of a Multivariable Prediction Model for Missed HIV Health Care Provider Visits in a Large US Clinical Cohort

Background

Identifying individuals at high risk of missing HIV care provider visits could support proactive intervention. Previous prediction models for missed visits have not incorporated data beyond the individual level.

Methods

We developed prediction models for missed visits among people with HIV (PWH) with ≥1 follow-up visit in the Center for AIDS Research Network of Integrated Clinical Systems from 2010 to 2016. Individual-level (medical record data and patient-reported outcomes), community-level (American Community Survey), HIV care site–level (standardized clinic leadership survey), and structural-level (HIV criminalization laws, Medicaid expansion, and state AIDS Drug Assistance Program budget) predictors were included. Models were developed using random forests with 10-fold cross-validation; candidate models with the highest area under the curve (AUC) were identified.

Results

Data from 382 432 visits among 20 807 PWH followed for a median of 3.8 years were included; the median age was 44 years, 81% were male, 37% were Black, 15% reported injection drug use, and 57% reported male-to-male sexual contact. The highest AUC was 0.76, and the strongest predictors were at the individual level (prior visit adherence, age, CD4+ count) and community level (proportion living in poverty, unemployed, and of Black race). A simplified model, including readily accessible variables available in a web-based calculator, had a slightly lower AUC of .700.

Conclusions

Prediction models validated using multilevel data had a similar AUC to previous models developed using only individual-level data. The strongest predictors were individual-level variables, particularly prior visit adherence, though community-level variables were also predictive. Absent additional data, PWH with previous missed visits should be prioritized by interventions to improve visit adherence.

Prosecution of non-disclosure of HIV status: Potential impact on HIV testing and transmission among HIV-negative men who have sex with men

Background

Non-disclosure criminal prosecutions among gay, bisexual and other men who have sex with men (MSM) are increasing, even though transmission risk is low when effective antiretroviral treatment (ART) is used. Reduced HIV testing may reduce the impact of HIV “test and treat” strategies. We aimed to quantify the potential impact of non-disclosure prosecutions on HIV testing and transmission among MSM.

Methods

MSM attending an HIV and primary care clinic in Toronto completed an audio computer-assisted self-interview questionnaire. HIV-negative participants were asked concern over non-disclosure prosecution altered their likelihood of HIV testing. Responses were characterized using cross-tabulations and bivariate logistic regressions. Flow charts modelled how changes in HIV testing behaviour impacted HIV transmission rates controlling for ART use, condom use and HIV status disclosure.

Results

150 HIV-negative MSM were recruited September 2010 to June 2012. 7% (9/124) were less or much less likely to be tested for HIV due to concern over future prosecution. Bivariate regression showed no obvious socio/sexual demographic characteristics associated with decreased willingness of HIV testing to due concern about prosecution. Subsequent models estimated that this 7% reduction in testing could cause an 18.5% increase in community HIV transmission, 73% of which was driven by the failure of HIV-positive but undiagnosed MSM to access care and reduce HIV transmission risk by using ART.

Conclusions

Fear of prosecution over HIV non-disclosure was reported to reduce HIV testing willingness by a minority of HIV-negative MSM in Toronto; however, this reduction has the potential to significantly increase HIV transmission at the community level which has important public health implications.