1
|
Zhou L, Gong Z, Tian L, Chen Z. Exploring the interconnection between international crude oil and silver rates volatilities: Novel evidence from the COVID-19 pandemic. Heliyon 2024; 10:e34545. [PMID: 39149075 PMCID: PMC11324939 DOI: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e34545] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/31/2024] [Revised: 07/09/2024] [Accepted: 07/11/2024] [Indexed: 08/17/2024] Open
Abstract
Several research studies globally focus on the volatility of gold and oil prices, neglecting an examination of silver price volatility in relation to other market commodities. The current Covid-19 pandemic has led to various uncertainties and fluctuations in financial and stock exchange markets, yet existing literature primarily concentrates on individual product rates rather than combined rate changes. Our study aims to bridge this research gap by analyzing the relationship between oil rates, silver rates, oil rate transitions, and silver rate transitions on the security exchange in China from 1990 to 2022, using the ARDL approach and Nonlinear ARDL for a comprehensive assessment. The findings reveal a significant impact of silver and oil rates on China's security exchange in the future, with the negative effects of oil rate changes and a positive effect of silver rate transitions. In the short term, oil and silver rates play a crucial role in influencing China's security exchange, highlighting the importance of monitoring these trends for investors. It is recommended that investors respond prudently to market transitions, particularly by considering silver as a secure option during times of uncertainty, while policymakers should implement appropriate measures to manage the rapid fluctuations from oil to the security market.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Lei Zhou
- School of Economics and Management, Hunan University of Science and Engineering, Yongzhou, 425199, China
- Business School of Xiangtan University, Xiangtan, 411105, China
| | - Zhimin Gong
- Business School of Xiangtan University, Xiangtan, 411105, China
| | - Lihui Tian
- College of Economics and Management, Hunan University of Arts and Science, Changde, 415000, China
| | | |
Collapse
|
2
|
Lu Z, Bing Z, Li S, Zender A. Navigating crisis: The effect of COVID-19 on sports entrepreneurs and service excellence in non-profit organizations. Heliyon 2024; 10:e32286. [PMID: 38975188 PMCID: PMC11226769 DOI: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e32286] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/28/2024] [Revised: 05/27/2024] [Accepted: 05/31/2024] [Indexed: 07/09/2024] Open
Abstract
Sports organizations have deemed sports entrepreneurship crucial in helping them overcome difficult times. The purpose of this research is to find out how the COVID-19 issue affected sports entrepreneurs and whether there are any variations in how non-profit sporting organizations anticipate entrepreneurs' effect on service excellence. This goal was achieved by comparing 145 sports organizations before and after the viral epidemic. The factors evaluated before (Time 1) and after (Time 2) the COVID-19 epidemic were compared using paired sample-t tests. Associations and multilevel linear declines were utilized to examine the link between the factors discussed in the two phases. After the emergence of COVID-19, the findings suggest that risk-taking and creativity are much more significant, although initiative has mostly stayed the same. Lastly, a favourable and statistically substantial correlation exists between sports entrepreneurial and service excellence during pre- and post-crisis periods.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Zhihai Lu
- College of Leisure and Social Sports, Capital University of Physical Education and Sports, Beijing, China
| | - Zeng Bing
- Graduate School, Capital University of Physical Education and Sports, Beijing, China
| | - Shilong Li
- Graduate School, Capital University of Physical Education and Sports, Beijing, China
| | | |
Collapse
|
3
|
De Giuli ME, Spelta A. Wasserstein barycenter regression for estimating the joint dynamics of renewable and fossil fuel energy indices. COMPUTATIONAL MANAGEMENT SCIENCE 2023; 20:1. [PMID: 37520271 PMCID: PMC9898863 DOI: 10.1007/s10287-023-00436-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/15/2022] [Accepted: 12/19/2022] [Indexed: 08/01/2023]
Abstract
In order to characterize non-linear system dynamics and to generate term structures of joint distributions, we propose a flexible and multidimensional approach, which exploits Wasserstein barycentric coordinates for histograms. We apply this methodology to study the relationships between the performance in the European market of the renewable energy sector and that of the fossil fuel energy one. Our methodology allows us to estimate the term structure of conditional joint distributions. This optimal barycentric interpolation can be interpreted as a posterior version of the joint distribution with respect to the prior contained in the past histograms history. Once the underlying dynamics mechanism among the set of variables are obtained as optimal Wasserstein barycentric coordinates, the learned dynamic rules can be used to generate term structures of joint distributions.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Maria Elena De Giuli
- Department of Economics and Managemen, University of Pavia, San Felice 5, 27100 Pavia, Italy
| | - Alessandro Spelta
- Department of Economics and Managemen, University of Pavia, San Felice 5, 27100 Pavia, Italy
| |
Collapse
|
4
|
Boubaker S, Liu Z, Zhang Y. Forecasting oil commodity spot price in a data-rich environment. ANNALS OF OPERATIONS RESEARCH 2022:1-18. [PMID: 36217322 PMCID: PMC9534472 DOI: 10.1007/s10479-022-05004-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 09/19/2022] [Indexed: 06/16/2023]
Abstract
Statistical properties that vary with time represent a challenge for time series forecasting. This paper proposes a change point-adaptive-RNN (CP-ADARNN) framework to predict crude oil prices with high-dimensional monthly variables. We first detect the structural breaks in predictors using the change point technique, and subsequently train a prediction model based on ADARNN. Using 310 economic series as exogenous factors from 1993 to 2021 to predict the monthly return on the WTI crude oil real price, CP-ADARNN outperforms competing benchmarks by 12.5% in terms of the root mean square error and achieves a correlation of 0.706 between predicted and actual returns. Furthermore, the superiority of CP-ADARNN is robust for Brent oil price as well as during the COVID-19 pandemic. The findings of this paper provide new insights for investors and researchers in the oil market.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Sabri Boubaker
- EM Normandie Business School, Métis Lab, Paris, France
- International School, Vietnam National University, Hanoi, Vietnam
- Swansea University, Swansea, United Kingdom
| | - Zhenya Liu
- School of Finance, Renmin University of China, Beijing, China
- China Financial Policy Research Center, Renmin University of China, Beijing, China
- CERGAM, Aix-Marseille University, Aix-en-Provence, France
| | - Yifan Zhang
- School of Finance, Renmin University of China, Beijing, China
| |
Collapse
|
5
|
Shahzad U, Ramzan M, Shah MI, Doğan B, Ajmi AN. Analyzing the Nexus Between Geopolitical Risk, Policy Uncertainty, and Tourist Arrivals: Evidence From the United States. EVALUATION REVIEW 2022; 46:266-295. [PMID: 35379007 DOI: 10.1177/0193841x221085355] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/12/2023]
Abstract
This study attempts to explore the causal linkage of the COVID-19 pandemic, economic policy uncertainty, geopolitical risk, and tourism arrivals in the United States taking data from January to November 2020. In order to analyze the above relationship, this study uses a novel time-varying granger causality test developed by Shi et al. (2018), which incorporates its three causality algorithms such as forward recursive causality, rolling causality, and recursive evolving causality. The findings from forward recursive causality could not confirm any significant causal relationship between COVID-19 and tourism, geopolitical risk (GPR) and tourism, economic policy uncertainty and tourism, and geopolitical risk and COVID-19 but found causality between economic policy uncertainty and COVID-19. The rolling window causality reported bidirectional causality between COVID-19 and tourism and unidirectional causality running from tourism to geopolitical risk. However, the recursive evolving causality identified a significant bidirectional causal relationship between all the variables. Based on the findings, policy implications for the tourism sector are provided.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Umer Shahzad
- School of Statistics and Applied Mathematics, 12531Anhui University of Finance and Economics, Bengbu, China
| | - Muhammad Ramzan
- School of International Trade and Economics, 47855Shandong University of Finance and Economics, 250014, Jinan, Shandong, China
- Faculty of Management Sciences, department of Commerce, University of Sialkot, Punjab, Pakistan
| | - Muhammad Ibrahim Shah
- Resource Economics and Environmental Sociology (REES), University of Alberta, Edmonton, Canada
- Alma Mater Department of Economics, 95324University of Dhaka, Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | - Buhari Doğan
- Department of Economics, 52994Suleyman Demirel University, Isparta, Turkey
| | - Ahdi Noomen Ajmi
- Department of Business Administration, College of Science and Humanities in Slayel, Prince Sattam Bin Abdulaziz University, Saudi Arabia
- ESC de Tunis, 108051Manouba University, Manouba, Tunisia
| |
Collapse
|
6
|
Jana RK, Tiwari AK, Hammoudeh S, Albulescu C. Financial modeling, risk management of energy and environmental instruments and derivatives: past, present, and future. ANNALS OF OPERATIONS RESEARCH 2022; 313:1-7. [PMID: 35571379 PMCID: PMC9088720 DOI: 10.1007/s10479-022-04723-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 04/11/2022] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
In this preface, we investigate the past, study the present, and look for the future of financial modeling, risk management of energy and environmental instruments, and derivatives based on articles selected in this special issue (SI). We also summarize the significant findings of those articles and identify the research trends.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Rabin K. Jana
- Operations and Quantitative Methods Area, Indian Institute of Management Raipur, Atal Nagar, CG 493661 India
| | | | - Shawkat Hammoudeh
- Lebow College of Business, Drexel University, 3220 Market Street, Philadelphia, USA
- Bureau of Business Research, University of Economics Oh Chi Min City, Ho Chi Min City, Vietnam
| | - Claudiu Albulescu
- Management Department, Research Center in Engineering and Management, Politehnica University of Timisoara, 300006 Timisoara, Romania
| |
Collapse
|