Uncertainty measure in evidence theory with its applications

A new basic probability assignment generation and combination method for conflict data fusion in the evidence theory

Dempster-Shafer evidence theory is an effective method to deal with information fusion. However, how to deal with the fusion paradoxes while using the Dempster's combination rule is still an open issue. To address this issue, a new basic probability assignment (BPA) generation method based on the cosine similarity and the belief entropy was proposed in this paper. Firstly, Mahalanobis distance was used to measure the similarity between the test sample and BPA of each focal element in the frame of discernment. Then, cosine similarity and belief entropy were used respectively to measure the reliability and uncertainty of each BPA to make adjustments and generate a standard BPA. Finally, Dempster's combination rule was used for the fusion of new BPAs. Numerical examples were used to prove the effectiveness of the proposed method in solving the classical fusion paradoxes. Besides, the accuracy rates of the classification experiments on datasets were also calculated to verify the rationality and efficiency of the proposed method.

Multi-Source Information Fusion Based on Negation of Reconstructed Basic Probability Assignment with Padded Gaussian Distribution and Belief Entropy

Multi-source information fusion is widely used because of its similarity to practical engineering situations. With the development of science and technology, the sources of information collected under engineering projects and scientific research are more diverse. To extract helpful information from multi-source information, in this paper, we propose a multi-source information fusion method based on the Dempster-Shafer (DS) evidence theory with the negation of reconstructed basic probability assignments (nrBPA). To determine the initial basic probability assignment (BPA), the Gaussian distribution BPA functions with padding terms are used. After that, nrBPAs are determined by two processes, reassigning the high blur degree BPA and transforming them into the form of negation. In addition, evidence of preliminary fusion is obtained using the entropy weight method based on the improved belief entropy of nrBPAs. The final fusion results are calculated from the preliminary fused evidence through the Dempster's combination rule. In the experimental section, the UCI iris data set and the wine data set are used for validating the arithmetic processes of the proposed method. In the comparative analysis, the effectiveness of the BPA determination using a padded Gaussian function is verified by discussing the classification task with the iris data set. Subsequently, the comparison with other methods using the cross-validation method proves that the proposed method is robust. Notably, the classification accuracy of the iris data set using the proposed method can reach an accuracy of 97.04%, which is higher than many other methods.

CEQD: A Complex Mass Function to Predict Interference Effects

Uncertainty is inevitable in the decision-making process of real applications. Quantum mechanics has become an interesting and popular topic in predicting and explaining human decision-making behaviors, especially regarding interference effects caused by uncertainty in the process of decision making, due to the limitations of Bayesian reasoning. In addition, complex evidence theory (CET), as a generalized Dempster-Shafer evidence theory, has been proposed to represent and handle uncertainty in the framework of the complex plane, and it is an effective tool in uncertainty reasoning. Particularly, the complex mass function, also known as a complex basic belief assignment in CET, is complex-value modeled, which is superior to the classical mass function in expressing uncertain information. CET is considered to have certain inherent connections with quantum mechanics since both are complex-value modeled and can be applied in handling uncertainty in decision-making problems. In this article, therefore, by bridging CET and quantum mechanics, we propose a new complex evidential quantum dynamical (CEQD) model to predict interference effects on human decision-making behaviors. In addition, uniform and weighted complex Pignistic belief transformation functions are proposed, which can be used effectively in the CEQD model to help explain interference effects. The experimental results and comparisons demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method. In summary, the proposed CEQD method provides a new perspective to study and explain the interference effects involved in human decision-making behaviors, which is significant for decision theory.

A new method of conflicting evidence management based on non-extensive entropy and Lance distance in uncertain scenarios

Handing uncertain information is one of the research focuses currently. For the sake of great ability of handing uncertain information, Dempster-Shafer evidence theory (D-S theory) has been widely used in various fields of uncertain information processing. However, when highly contradictory evidence appears, the results of the classical Dempster combination rules (DCR) can be counterintuitive. Aiming at this defect, by considering the relationship between the evidence and its own characteristics, the proposed method is a new method of conflicting evidence management based on non-extensive entropy and Lance distance in uncertain scenarios. Firstly, the Lance distance function is used to measure the degree of discrepancy and conflict between evidences, and the credibility of evidence is expressed by matrix. Introducing non-extensive entropy to measure the amount of information about evidence and express the uncertainty of evidence. Secondly, the discount coefficient of the final fusion evidence is measured by considering the credibility and uncertainty of the evidence, and the original evidence is modified by the discount coefficient. Then, the final result is obtained by evidence fusion with DCR. Finally, two numerical examples are provided to illustrate the efficiency of the proposed method, and the utility of our work is demonstrated through an application of the active lane change to avoid obstacles to the autonomous driving of new energy vehicles. The proposed method has a better identification accuracy, reaching 0.9811.

Managing uncertainty of expert's assessment in FMEA with the belief divergence measure

Failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) is an effective model that identifies the potential risk in the management process. In FMEA, the priority of the failure mode is determined by the risk priority number. There is enormous uncertainty and ambiguity in the traditional FMEA because of the divergence between expert assessments. To address the uncertainty of expert assessments, this work proposes an improved method based on the belief divergence measure. This method uses the belief divergence measure to calculate the average divergence of expert assessments, which is regarded as the reciprocal of the average support of assessments. Then convert the relative support among different experts into the relative weight of the experts. In this way, we will obtain a result with higher reliability. Finally, two practical cases are used to verify the feasibility and effectiveness of this method. The method can be used effectively in practical applications.

Weighted Decoding for the Competence Reliability Problem of ECOC Multiclass Classification

Error-Correcting Output Codes has become a well-known, established technique for multiclass classification due to its simplicity and efficiency. Each binary split contains different original classes. A noncompetent classifier emerges when it classifies an instance whose real class does not belong to the metasubclasses which is used to learn the classifier. How to reduce the error caused by the noncompetent classifiers under diversity big enough is urgent for ECOC classification. The weighted decoding strategy can be used to reduce the error caused by the noncompetence contradiction through relearning the weight coefficient matrix. To this end, a new weighted decoding strategy taking the classifier competence reliability into consideration is presented in this paper, which is suitable for any coding matrix. Support Vector Data Description is applied to compute the distance from an instance to the metasubclasses. The distance reflects the competence reliability and is fused as the weight in the base classifier combination. In so doing, the effect of the competent classifiers on classification is reinforced, while the bias induced by the noncompetent ones is decreased. Reflecting the competence reliability, the weights of classifiers for each instance change dynamically, which accords with the classification practice. The statistical simulations based on benchmark datasets indicate that our proposed algorithm outperforms other methods and provides new thought for solving the noncompetence problem.

Uncertainty of Interval Type-2 Fuzzy Sets Based on Fuzzy Belief Entropy

Interval type-2 fuzzy sets (IT2 FS) play an important part in dealing with uncertain applications. However, how to measure the uncertainty of IT2 FS is still an open issue. The specific objective of this study is to present a new entropy named fuzzy belief entropy to solve the problem based on the relation among IT2 FS, belief structure, and Z-valuations. The interval of membership function can be transformed to interval BPA [Bel,Pl]. Then, Bel and Pl are put into the proposed entropy to calculate the uncertainty from the three aspects of fuzziness, discord, and nonspecificity, respectively, which makes the result more reasonable. Compared with other methods, fuzzy belief entropy is more reasonable because it can measure the uncertainty caused by multielement fuzzy subsets. Furthermore, when the membership function belongs to type-1 fuzzy sets, fuzzy belief entropy degenerates to Shannon entropy. Compared with other methods, several numerical examples are demonstrated that the proposed entropy is feasible and persuasive.

Distance-Based Knowledge Measure for Intuitionistic Fuzzy Sets with Its Application in Decision Making

Much attention has been paid to construct an applicable knowledge measure or uncertainty measure for Atanassov's intuitionistic fuzzy set (AIFS). However, many of these measures were developed from intuitionistic fuzzy entropy, which cannot really reflect the knowledge amount associated with an AIFS well. Some knowledge measures were constructed based on the distinction between an AIFS and its complementary set, which may lead to information loss in decision making. In this paper, knowledge amount of an AIFS is quantified by calculating the distance from an AIFS to the AIFS with maximum uncertainty. Axiomatic properties for the definition of knowledge measure are extended to a more general level. Then the new knowledge measure is developed based on an intuitionistic fuzzy distance measure. The properties of the proposed distance-based knowledge measure are investigated based on mathematical analysis and numerical examples. The proposed knowledge measure is finally applied to solve the multi-attribute group decision-making (MAGDM) problem with intuitionistic fuzzy information. The new MAGDM method is used to evaluate the threat level of malicious code. Experimental results in malicious code threat evaluation demonstrate the effectiveness and validity of proposed method.

A New Total Uncertainty Measure from A Perspective of Maximum Entropy Requirement

The Dempster-Shafer theory (DST) is an information fusion framework and widely used in many fields. However, the uncertainty measure of a basic probability assignment (BPA) is still an open issue in DST. There are many methods to quantify the uncertainty of BPAs. However, the existing methods have some limitations. In this paper, a new total uncertainty measure from a perspective of maximum entropy requirement is proposed. The proposed method can measure both dissonance and non-specificity in BPA, which includes two components. The first component is consistent with Yager's dissonance measure. The second component is the non-specificity measurement with different functions. We also prove the desirable properties of the proposed method. Besides, numerical examples and applications are provided to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed total uncertainty measure.

Image invariant features and SVM techniques for college level English learning platform

Under the Internet information network environment, College English teaching mode is faced with a new choice and transformation. SPOC and STEAM classes have multiple advantages, which can make up for the lack of a single teaching model and provide new ideas for teaching reform. It is a practical application of statistical method to optimize the model of artificial neural network by machine learning method of statistics. The application of mathematical statistics can solve some related problems of artificial perception. Therefore, artificial neural network has the same simple decision ability and judgment ability as human beings. In this paper, the authors analyze the image invariant features and SVM algorithms application in college English education platform. The results show that this method has a positive effect on learners’ English proficiency and learning effect. Teachers also avoid paying a lot of labor, which is very beneficial to the implementation of innovative teaching. However, compared with the traditional teaching, the phenomenon of student achievement differentiation is very serious, and teaching is facing great pressure. Therefore, improving students’ autonomous learning ability and teachers’ information literacy is still very helpful to improve the teaching effect.

Complex Entropy and Its Application in Decision-Making for Medical Diagnosis

In decision-making systems, how to measure uncertain information remains an open issue, especially for information processing modeled on complex planes. In this paper, a new complex entropy is proposed to measure the uncertainty of a complex-valued distribution (CvD). The proposed complex entropy is a generalization of Gini entropy that has a powerful capability to measure uncertainty. In particular, when a CvD reduces to a probability distribution, the complex entropy will degrade into Gini entropy. In addition, the properties of complex entropy, including the nonnegativity, maximum and minimum entropies, and boundedness, are analyzed and discussed. Several numerical examples illuminate the superiority of the newly defined complex entropy. Based on the newly defined complex entropy, a multisource information fusion algorithm for decision-making is developed. Finally, we apply the decision-making algorithm in a medical diagnosis problem to validate its practicability.

A new re-encoding ECOC using reject option

When training base classifier by ternary Error Correcting Output Codes (ECOC), it is well know that some classes are ignored. On this account, a non-competent classifier emerges when it classify an instance whose real label does not belong to the meta-subclasses. Meanwhile, the classic ECOC dichotomizers can only produce binary outputs and have no capability of rejection for classification. To overcome the non-competence problem and better model the multi-class problem for reducing the classification cost, we embed reject option to ECOC and present a new variant of ECOC algorithm called as Reject-Option-based Re-encoding ECOC (ROECOC). The cost-sensitive classification model and cost-loss function based on Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve are built respectively. The optimal reject threshold values are obtained by combing the condition to be met for minimizing the loss function and the ROC convex hull. In so doing, reject option (t1, t2) provides a three-symbol output to make dichotomizers more competent and ROECOC more universal and practical for cost-sensitive classification issue. Experimental results on two kinds of datasets show that our scheme with low-degree freedom of initialized ECOC can effectively enhance accuracy and reduce cost.

An Improved Total Uncertainty Measure in the Evidence Theory and Its Application in Decision Making

Dempster–Shafer evidence theory (DS theory) has some superiorities in uncertain information processing for a large variety of applications. However, the problem of how to quantify the uncertainty of basic probability assignment (BPA) in DS theory framework remain unresolved. The goal of this paper is to define a new belief entropy for measuring uncertainty of BPA with desirable properties. The new entropy can be helpful for uncertainty management in practical applications such as decision making. The proposed uncertainty measure has two components. The first component is an improved version of Dubois–Prade entropy, which aims to capture the non-specificity portion of uncertainty with a consideration of the element number in frame of discernment (FOD). The second component is adopted from Nguyen entropy, which captures conflict in BPA. We prove that the proposed entropy satisfies some desired properties proposed in the literature. In addition, the proposed entropy can be reduced to Shannon entropy if the BPA is a probability distribution. Numerical examples are presented to show the efficiency and superiority of the proposed measure as well as an application in decision making.

Negation of Pythagorean Fuzzy Number Based on a New Uncertainty Measure Applied in a Service Supplier Selection System

The Pythagorean fuzzy number (PFN) consists of membership and non-membership as an extension of the intuitionistic fuzzy number. PFN has a larger ambiguity, and it has a stronger ability to express uncertainty. In the multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) problem, it is also very difficult to measure the ambiguity degree of a set of PFN. A new entropy of PFN is proposed based on a technique for order of preference by similarity to ideal solution (Topsis) method of revised relative closeness index in this paper. To verify the new entropy with a good performance in uncertainty measure, a new Pythagorean fuzzy number negation approach is proposed. We develop the PFN negation and find the correlation of the uncertainty measure. Existing methods can only evaluate the ambiguity of a single PFN. The newly proposed method is suitable to systematically evaluate the uncertainty of PFN in Topsis. Nowadays, there are no uniform criteria for measuring service quality. It brings challenges to the future development of airlines. Therefore, grasping the future market trends leads to winning with advanced and high-quality services. Afterward, the applicability in the service supplier selection system with the new entropy is discussed to evaluate the service quality and measure uncertainty. Finally, the new PFN entropy is verified with a good ability in the last MCDM numerical example.

Study on Master Slave Interaction Model Based on Stackelberg Game in Distributed Environment

In view of the problems such as low efficiency, difficulty in resolving local conflicts and lack of practical application scenarios, existing in the interaction model of multi-agent systems in a distributed environment, a multi-master multi-slave interaction model was designed based on the Stackelberg game, which is applied to the interaction game problem between the controller and the participant in the command and control process. Through optimizing the Stackelberg game model and multi-attribute decision-making, the multi-master, multi-slave, multi-agent system of the Stackelberg game was designed, and the closed loop problem under the Stackelberg game is solved for dimension reduction and optimal function value. Finally, through the numerical derivation simulation and the training results of related system data, the high efficiency and strong robustness of the model were verified from multiple perspectives, and this model algorithm was proved to be true and highly efficient.

An Improved Belief Entropy to Measure Uncertainty of Basic Probability Assignments Based on Deng Entropy and Belief Interval

It is still an open issue to measure uncertainty of the basic probability assignment function under Dempster-Shafer theory framework, which is the foundation and preliminary work for conflict degree measurement and combination of evidences. This paper proposes an improved belief entropy to measure uncertainty of the basic probability assignment based on Deng entropy and the belief interval, which takes the belief function and the plausibility function as the lower bound and the upper bound, respectively. Specifically, the center and the span of the belief interval are employed to define the total uncertainty degree. It can be proved that the improved belief entropy will be degenerated to Shannon entropy when the the basic probability assignment is Bayesian. The results of numerical examples and a case study show that its efficiency and flexibility are better compared with previous uncertainty measures.

An Improved Multi-Source Data Fusion Method Based on the Belief Entropy and Divergence Measure

Dempster–Shafer (DS) evidence theory is widely applied in multi-source data fusion technology. However, classical DS combination rule fails to deal with the situation when evidence is highly in conflict. To address this problem, a novel multi-source data fusion method is proposed in this paper. The main steps of the proposed method are presented as follows. Firstly, the credibility weight of each piece of evidence is obtained after transforming the belief Jenson–Shannon divergence into belief similarities. Next, the belief entropy of each piece of evidence is calculated and the information volume weights of evidence are generated. Then, both credibility weights and information volume weights of evidence are unified to generate the final weight of each piece of evidence before the weighted average evidence is calculated. Then, the classical DS combination rule is used multiple times on the modified evidence to generate the fusing results. A numerical example compares the fusing result of the proposed method with that of other existing combination rules. Further, a practical application of fault diagnosis is presented to illustrate the plausibility and efficiency of the proposed method. The experimental result shows that the targeted type of fault is recognized most accurately by the proposed method in comparing with other combination rules.

A Novel Uncertainty Management Approach for Air Combat Situation Assessment Based on Improved Belief Entropy

Uncertain information exists in each procedure of an air combat situation assessment. To address this issue, this paper proposes an improved method to address the uncertain information fusion of air combat situation assessment in the Dempster-Shafer evidence theory (DST) framework. A better fusion result regarding the prediction of military intention can be helpful for decision-making in an air combat situation. To obtain a more accurate fusion result of situation assessment, an improved belief entropy (IBE) is applied to preprocess the uncertainty of situation assessment information. Data fusion of assessment information after preprocessing will be based on the classical Dempster's rule of combination. The illustrative example result validates the rationality and the effectiveness of the proposed method.