Feature selection and hyper parameters optimization for short-term wind power forecast

Adaptive singular spectral decomposition hybrid framework with quadratic error correction for wind power prediction

High-precision wind power forecasting is essential for grid scheduling and renewable energy utilization. Wind data's nonlinear, stochastic, and multi-scale characteristics create prediction challenges. This study proposes a hybrid model integrating adaptive improved singular spectrum analysis (ISSA), optimized bidirectional temporal convolutional network-bidirectional long short-term memory (BiTCN-BiLSTM) networks, and AdaBoost ensemble learning. Adaptive ISSA provides parameter-free, data-driven modal decomposition to reduce noise. Hybrid strategy-enhanced dung beetle optimization (OTDBO) fine-tunes hyperparameters of BiTCN-BiLSTM, and AdaBoost dynamically corrects errors, significantly improving robustness. Tests using seasonal datasets from Dabancheng wind farm (China) show substantial performance improvement (mean absolute error [MAE] reduced by 45.4%, root-mean-square error (RMSE) by 47.6%, p < 0.001), and training time reduced by 12.1%-21.3%. This method offers accurate, scalable forecasting for reliable renewable energy integration.

Intelligent optimal control model of selection pressure for rapid culture of aerobic granular sludge based on machine learning and simulated annealing algorithm

Aerobic Granular Sludge (AGS) has advantages over Activated sludge (AS) but faces challenges with long granulation periods. In this study, a novel grey-box model is devised to optimize the cultivation of AGS to shorten the formation time. This model is based on an existing white-box model. The modeling process starts with the application of four sensitivity analysis methods to assess the 12 model metrics selected. Subsequently, 12 prediction models were constructed by combining the six Machine learning (ML) algorithms and integrated algorithms, with the best performance selected (R2 = 0.98). Finally, an AGS selection pressure planning model was designed in conjunction with a simulated annealing (SA) algorithm to guide AGS training. The results demonstrate that AGS formation could be achieved within four days under the model's optimal control. Therefore, the establishment of this model provides a new technique for the cultivation of AGS.

Forecasting oil consumption with attention-based IndRNN optimized by adaptive differential evolution

Accurate prediction of oil consumption plays a dominant role in oil supply chain management. However, because of the effects of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, oil consumption has exhibited an uncertain and volatile trend, which leads to a huge challenge to accurate predictions. The rapid development of the Internet provides countless online information (e.g., online news) that can benefit predict oil consumption. This study adopts a novel news-based oil consumption prediction methodology-convolutional neural network (CNN) to fetch online news information automatically, thereby illustrating the contribution of text features for oil consumption prediction. This study also proposes a new approach called attention-based JADE-IndRNN that combines adaptive differential evolution (adaptive differential evolution with optional external archive, JADE) with an attention-based independent recurrent neural network (IndRNN) to forecast monthly oil consumption. Experimental results further indicate that the proposed news-based oil consumption prediction methodology improves on the traditional techniques without online oil news significantly, as the news might contain some explanations of the relevant confinement or reopen policies during the COVID-19 period.

A Novel Hybrid Predictive Model for Ultra-Short-Term Wind Speed Prediction

A novel hybrid model is proposed to improve the accuracy of ultra-short-term wind speed prediction by combining the improved complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise (ICEEMDAN), the sample entropy (SE), optimized recurrent broad learning system (ORBLS), and broadened temporal convolutional network (BTCN). First, ICEEMDAN is introduced to smooth the nonlinear part of the wind speed data by decomposing the raw wind speed data into a series of sequences. Second, SE is applied to quantitatively assess the complexity of each sequence. All sequences are divided into simple sequence set and complex sequence set based on the values of SE. Third, based on the typical broad learning system (BLS), we propose ORBLS with cyclically connected enhancement nodes, which can better capture the dynamic characteristics of the wind. The improved particle swarm optimization (PSO) is used to optimize the hyper-parameters of ORBLS. Fourth, we propose BTCN by adding a dilated causal convolution layer in parallel to each residual block, which can effectively alleviate the local information loss of the temporal convolutional network (TCN) in case of insufficient time series data. Note that ORBLS and BTCN can effectively predict the simple and complex sequences, respectively. To validate the performance of the proposed model, we conducted three predictive experiments on four data sets. The experimental results show that our model obtains the best predictive results on all evaluation metrics, which fully demonstrates the accuracy and robustness of the proposed model.

Solar Radiation Forecasting by Pearson Correlation Using LSTM Neural Network and ANFIS Method: Application in the West-Central Jordan

Solar energy is one of the most important renewable energies, with many advantages over other sources. Many parameters affect the electricity generation from solar plants. This paper aims to study the influence of these parameters on predicting solar radiation and electric energy produced in the Salt-Jordan region (Middle East) using long short-term memory (LSTM) and Adaptive Network-based Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) models. The data relating to 24 meteorological parameters for nearly the past five years were downloaded from the MeteoBleu database. The results show that the influence of parameters on solar radiation varies according to the season. The forecasting using ANFIS provides better results when the parameter correlation with solar radiation is high (i.e., Pearson Correlation Coefficient PCC between 0.95 and 1). In comparison, the LSTM neural network shows better results when correlation is low (PCC in the range 0.5–0.8). The obtained RMSE varies from 0.04 to 0.8 depending on the season and used parameters; new meteorological parameters influencing solar radiation are also investigated.