MELD-Lactate Predicts Poor Outcome in Variceal Bleeding in Cirrhosis

Timing of endoscopy in patients with elevated lactate levels and acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding; a retrospective comparative study

BACKGROUND/AIMS

While current guidelines recommend performing endoscopy within 24 h in case of acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding (AUGIB), the precise timing remains an issue of debate. Lactate is an established parameter for risk stratification in a variety of medical emergencies. This study evaluated the predictive ability of elevated lactate levels in identifying patients with UGIB, who may benefit from emergent endoscopy.

METHODS

We retrospectively analyzed all patients with elevated lactate levels, who presented to our emergency department between 01 January 2015 and 31 December 2019 due to suspected AUGIB.

RESULTS

Of 134 included cases, 81.3% had an Charlson comorbidity index of ≥3 and 50.4% presented with shock. Fifteen (11.2%) patients died and mortality rates rose with increasing lactate levels. Emergent endoscopy within 6 h (EE) and non-EE were performed in 64 (47.8%) and 70 (52.2%) patients, respectively. Patients who underwent EE had lower systolic blood pressure (107.6 mmHg vs. 123.2 mmHg; p = 0.001) and received blood transfusions more frequently (79.7% vs 64.3%; p = 0.048), but interestingly need for endoscopic intervention (26.6% vs 20.0%; p = 0.37), rebleeding (17.2% vs. 15.7%; p = 0.82) and mortality (9.4% vs. 11.4%; p = 0.7) did not differ significantly.

CONCLUSION

In conclusion, our findings support the recommendations of current guidelines to perform non-EE after sufficient resuscitation and management of comorbid illnesses.

Development and validation of a scoring system for in-hospital mortality following band ligation in esophageal variceal bleeding

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to develop and validate a simple scoring system to predict in-hospital mortality after endoscopic variceal ligation (EVL) for esophageal variceal bleeding.

METHODS

Data from a 13-year study involving 46 Japanese institutions were split into development (initial 7 years) and validation (last 6 years) cohorts. The study subjects were patients hospitalized for esophageal variceal bleeding and treated with EVL. Variable selection was performed using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression, targeting in-hospital all-cause mortality as the outcome. We developed the Hospital Outcome Prediction following Endoscopic Variceal Ligation (HOPE-EVL) score from β coefficients of multivariate logistic regression and assessed its discrimination and calibration.

RESULTS

The study included 980 patients: 536 in the development cohort and 444 in the validation cohort. In-hospital mortality was 13.6% and 10.1% for the respective cohorts. The scoring system used five variables: systolic blood pressure (<80 mmHg: 2 points), Glasgow Coma Scale (≤12: 1 point), total bilirubin (≥5 mg/dL: 1 point), creatinine (≥1.5 mg/dL: 1 point), and albumin (<2.8 g/dL: 1 point). The risk groups (low: 0-1, middle: 2-3, high: ≥4) in the validation cohort corresponded to observed and predicted mortality probabilities of 2.0% and 2.5%, 19.0% and 22.9%, and 57.6% and 71.9%, respectively. In this cohort, the HOPE-EVL score demonstrated excellent discrimination ability (area under the curve [AUC] 0.890; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.850-0.930) compared with the Model for End-stage Liver Disease score (AUC 0.853; 95% CI 0.794-0.912) and the Child-Pugh score (AUC 0.798; 95% CI 0.727-0.869).

CONCLUSIONS

The HOPE-EVL score practically and effectively predicts in-hospital mortality. This score could facilitate the appropriate allocation of resources and effective communication with patients and their families.

Learning curve of achieving competency in emergency endoscopy in upper gastrointestinal bleeding: how much experience is necessary?

OBJECTIVES

The management of upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) has seen rapid advancements with revolutionising innovations. However, insufficient data exist on the necessary number of emergency endoscopies needed to achieve competency in haemostatic interventions.

DESIGN

We retrospectively analysed all oesophagogastroduodenoscopies with signs of recent haemorrhage performed between 2015 and 2022 at our university hospital. A learning curve was created by plotting the number of previously performed oesophagogastroduodenoscopies with signs of recent haemorrhage against the treatment failure rate, defined as failed haemostasis, rebleeding and necessary surgical or radiological intervention.

RESULTS

The study population included 787 cases with a median age of 66 years. Active bleeding was detected in 576 cases (73.2%). Treatment failure occurred in 225 (28.6%) cases. The learning curve showed a marked decline in treatment failure rates after nine oesophagogastroduodenoscopies had been performed by the respective endoscopists followed by a first plateau between 20 and 50 procedures. A second decline was observed after 51 emergency procedures followed by a second plateau. Endoscopists with experience of <10 emergency procedures had higher treatment failure rates compared with endoscopists with >51 emergency oesophagogastroduodenoscopies performed (p=0.039) or consultants (p=0.041).

CONCLUSIONS

Our data suggest that a minimum number of 20 oesophagogastroduodenoscopies with signs of recent haemorrhage is necessary before endoscopists should be considered proficient to perform emergency procedures independently. Endoscopists might be considered as advanced-qualified experts in managing UGIB after a minimum of 50 haemostatic procedure performed. Implementing recommendations on minimum numbers of emergency endoscopies in education programmes of endoscopy trainees could improve their confidence and competency in managing acute UGIB.

Predictors of 30-day mortality in patients diagnosed with hepatic encephalopathy on admission to the emergency department

BACKGROUND

The aim of this study is to compare the laboratory findings and disease severity scores of patients diagnosed with hepatic encephalopathy (HE) in the emergency department (ED) to predict 30-day mortality.

METHOD

The patients over 18 years old and diagnosed HE in the ED of a tertiary hospital were included in the study. Demographic and clinical characteristics, laboratory parameters, predisposing causes and outcomes of the patients included in the study were recorded in the data form. Severity of liver disease was assessed by Child Pugh Score (CPS), End-stage liver disease model (MELD), MELD-Na and MELD-Lactate scores.

RESULTS

Two hundred fifty-four patients diagnosed with HE were included in the study. 59.1% of the patients were male. The mean age of the patients was 65.2 ± 12.6 years. The mortality rate of the patients was 47.2%. When the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, which determines the predictive properties of laboratory parameters and disease severity scores, was examined, the area under curve value of the MELD-Lactate score (0.858 95% CI 0.812-0.904, P  < 0.001) was the highest. Binary logistic regression analysis for the estimation of patients' 30-day mortality showed that CPS and MELD-Lactate scores and blood ammonia and B-type natriuretic peptide levels were independent predictors of mortality.

CONCLUSION

According to the study data, MELD-Lactate and BNP levels in patients diagnosed with HE in the ED may help the clinician in the prediction of 30-day mortality in the early period.

MELD, MELD 3.0, versus Child score to predict mortality after acute variceal hemorrhage: A multicenter US cohort

BACKGROUND

Acute variceal hemorrhage is a major decompensating event in patients with cirrhosis and is associated with high 6-week mortality risk. Many prognostic models based on clinical and laboratory parameters have been developed to risk stratify patients on index bleeding presentation, including those based on the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) and Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP). However, consensus on model performance remains unclear.

METHODS

Using a large US multicenter cohort of hospitalized patients with cirrhosis who presented with acute variceal hemorrhage, this study evaluates, recalibrates, and compares liver severity index-based models, including the more recent MELD 3.0 model, to investigate their predictive performance on 6-week mortality. Models were also recalibrated and externally validated using additional external centers.

RESULTS

All recalibrated MELD-based and CTP-based models had excellent discrimination to identify patients at higher risk for 6-week mortality on initial presentation. The recalibrated CTP score model maintained the best calibration and performance within the validation cohort. Patients with low CTP scores (Class A, score 5-6) were strongly associated with < 5% mortality, while high CTP score (Class C, score > 9) were associated with > 20% mortality.

CONCLUSION

Use of liver severity index-based models accurately predict 6-week mortality risk for patients admitted to the hospital with acute variceal hemorrhage and supports the utilization of these models in future clinical trials as well as their use in clinical practice.

Pathophysiology and management of liver cirrhosis: from portal hypertension to acute-on-chronic liver failure

Cirrhosis transcends various progressive stages from compensation to decompensation driven by the severity of portal hypertension. The downstream effect of increasing portal hypertension severity leads to various pathophysiological pathways, which result in the cardinal complications of cirrhosis, including ascites, variceal hemorrhage, and hepatic encephalopathy. Additionally, the severity of portal hypertension is the central driver for further advanced complications of hyperdynamic circulation, hepatorenal syndrome, and cirrhotic cardiomyopathy. The management of these individual complications has specific nuances which have undergone significant developments. In contrast to the classical natural history of cirrhosis and its complications which follows an insidious trajectory, acute-on-chronic failure (ACLF) leads to a rapidly downhill course with high short-term mortality unless intervened at the early stages. The management of ACLF involves specific interventions, which have quickly evolved in recent years. In this review, we focus on complications of portal hypertension and delve into an approach toward ACLF.

Comparison of Lactate Clearance with Established Risk Assessment Tools in Predicting Outcomes in Acute Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding

Early risk stratification is mandatory in acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding (AUGIB) to guide optimal treatment. Numerous risk scores were introduced, but lack of practicability led to limited use in daily clinical practice. Lactate clearance is an established risk assessment tool in a variety of diseases, such as trauma and sepsis. Therefore, this study compares the predictive ability of pre-endoscopic lactate clearance and established risk scores in patients with AUGIB at the University Hospital of Cologne. Active bleeding was detected in 27 (25.2%) patients, and hemostatic intervention was performed in 35 (32.7%). In total, 16 patients (15%) experienced rebleeding and 12 (11.2%) died. Initially, lactate levels were elevated in 64 cases (59.8%), and the median lactate clearance was 18.7% (2.7-48.2%). Regarding the need for endoscopic intervention, the predictive ability of Glasgow Blatchford Score, pre-endoscopic Rockall score, initial lactate and lactate clearance did not differ significantly, and their area under the receiver operating characteristic curves were 0.658 (0.560-0.747), 0.572 (0.473-0.667), 0.572 (0.473-0.667) and 0.583 (0.483-0.677), respectively. Similar results were observed in relation to rebleeding and mortality. In conclusion, lactate clearance had comparable predictive ability compared to established risk scores. Further prospective research is necessary to clarify the potential role of lactate clearance as a reliable risk assessment tool in AUGIB.