The Effects of Disease on Optimal Forest Rotation: A Generalisable Analytical Framework

Assessment of the effects of the biotic and abiotic harmful factors on the amount of industrial wood production with deep learning

The protection and sustainability of forest assets is possible with planned production of forest products to lead to minimum loss. One of the products obtained from forests is the industrial wood, which is the most important raw material for many sectors. Thus, changes in industrial wood production amounts directly affect these sectors. For this reason, it is important to detect and examine the factors affecting industrial wood production amounts for optimum production and use of this raw material. This study aims to investigate and assess the effects of two biotic and two abiotic harmful factors on the amount of industrial wood production by building a deep learning estimation model. These factors are forest fires, insect outbreaks, diseases, and severe weather events. The study shows that the most harmful factor decreasing the industrial wood production level is diseases. The second effective factor, however, appears to be severe weather events. The third and the fourth factors were determined to be insect outbreaks and burned forest areas, respectively.

Long-Term Effect of Lophodermium Needle Cast on The Growth of Scots Pine and Implications for Financial Outcomes

In Northern Europe, climate change may facilitate the prevalence of Scots pine, yet also promote the spread of pathogens attacking this species. A common biotic risk for Scots pine in nurseries and young stands is Lophodermium needle cast, primarily caused by Lophodermium seditiosum, which negatively affects the survival and growth of saplings. Reduced tree growth has been observed several years after damage by Lophodermium needle cast. However, for decision-making in protection or resistance breeding, an estimate of financial loss is important. Thus, the study aimed to assess the long-term influence of Lophodermium needle cast on the growth and financial value of Scots pine stands. The effect of needle cast damage during the sixth growing season on growth at the age of 17 years was evaluated in a control-crossed Scots pine progeny trial, and the results indicated a significantly negative effect on the height and diameter of the trees. A significant family effect also existed on the severity of the needle cast damage. Long-term simulations indicated that severely damaged Scots pines had a reduced equivalent annual annuity (EAA) of almost 100% at the final harvest. More intensive early management to reduce stand density could partly compensate for losses caused by needle cast. A higher EAA for the most resistant group of trees regardless of the stand management scenarios suggests an economically justified potential for improved resistance. Strong negative (−0.62 to −0.70) correlations of height and survival with the proportion of severely affected trees at the family mean level implies that resistant genotypes can be selected along with improved growth in progeny trials, which are affected by needle cast.

The Effects of Climate Change on Pine Wilt Disease in South Korea: Challenges and Prospects

This study assessed the damage and the potential economic threat of pine wilt disease, which is the most common disease caused by forest-integrated pests in Korea. To estimate the rate of damage by pine wilt disease, a structural damage function was implemented. The nonlinear panel probit model and the generalized estimated equation (GEE) were used for the estimation. The estimated damage function and representative concentration pathways (RCP)8.5 data were used to predict the future damage rate by pests caused by climate change. In the assessment of the economic impact on forests, the dynamic optimization model was introduced. The concept of environmental payment was introduced to consider the economic value of non-timber benefits. For the economic analysis, three scenarios were established, i.e., no pest outbreak (baseline), pest infestation (no control), and pest infestation (prevention and control), and the forest management revenues that included the wood and non-wood materials for each scenario were compared. On the basis of the results of the analysis, a simulation was conducted to investigate the changes in forest management revenues according to changes in timber market prices, environmental payments, and climate change. The prediction results confirmed that the future damage by pine wilt disease and the extent of the damaged areas will increase as a consequence of climate change. In addition, the analysis of the economic impact showed that the increase of pest damage caused by climate change will worsen the forest management revenues. As pest damage brought on by climate change is expected to increase uncertainties and economic losses, there is a marked need to review the policies that so far have been focusing only on post-response tasks. In addition to a proper post-incident management, it is necessary to secure the sense of control and stability over the matter through the reinforcement of pre-incident management.

Forest Carbon Sequestration, Pathogens and the Costs of the EU’s 2050 Climate Targets

Carbon sequestration is suggested as a low-cost option for climate change mitigation, the functioning of which can be threatened by pathogen infestation. This study calculates the effects of infectious pathogens on the cost of achieving the EU’s 2050 climate targets by combining the so-called production function method with the replacement cost method. Pathogens are then assumed to affect carbon sink enhancement through the impact on productivity of forest land, and carbon sequestration is valued as the replacement for costly reductions in emissions from fossil fuels for reaching the EU’s 2050 climate targets. To this end, we have constructed a numerical dynamic optimization model with a logistic forest growth function, a simple allometric representation of the spread of pathogens in forests, and reductions in emissions from fossil fuels. The results show that the annual value of forest carbon sequestration ranges between approximately 6.4 and 14.9 billion Euros, depending on the impact and dispersal of pathogens. Relatively large values are obtained for countries with large emissions from fossil fuels, e.g., Germany, France, Spain and Italy, which also face costs of pathogen together with countries with large forest area, such as Romania.