Compositing climate change vulnerability of a Mediterranean region using spatiotemporally dynamic proxies for ecological and socioeconomic impacts and stabilities

A landscape persistence-based methodological framework for assessing ecological stability

Ecological stability is a critical factor in global sustainable development, yet its significance has been overlooked. Here we introduce a landscape-oriented framework to evaluate ecological stability in the Qingzang Plateau (QP). Our findings reveal a medium-high stability level in the QP, with minimal changes over recent years. The driving factors vary across landscape types, with climate and anthropogenic factors emerging as crucial determinants. While anthropogenic factors are strong but unstable due to policy changes and economic development, climatic factors exert a consistent influence. Based on our results, we propose site-specific ecological conservation and restoration measures. The ecological stability assessment framework provides a practical tool to understand the link between environmental conditions and ecosystems.

Spatiotemporal changes of ecological environment quality and climate drivers in Zoige Plateau

Ecological environment is the essential material basis of human survival and connects regional economy with socially sustainable development. However, climate changes characterized by global climate warming have caused a series of ecological environmental problems in recent years. Few studies have discussed various climate factors affecting the ecological environment, and the spatial non-stationary effects of different climate factors on the ecological environment are still unclear. Dynamically monitoring ecological environment changes in fragile areas and identifying its climate-driving mechanism are essential for ecological protection and environmental repair. Taking Zoige Plateau as a case, this paper simulated the eco-environmental quality during 1987-2020 using remote sensing data, utilized Geodetector method to identify the contributions of various climate drivers to ecological environment quality, and then adopted the Geographically Weighted Regression model to explore the spatial non-stationary impacts of climate factors on ecological environment quality. The results showed that the ecological quality in the middle regions of the Zoige Plateau was slightly better than in the surrounding marginal areas. For the whole area of Zoige Plateau, the average ecological environment quality index was 54.92, 53.99, 56.17, 57.88, 63.44, 56.93, 59.43, and 59.76 in 1987, 1992, 1997, 2001, 2006, 2013, 2016 and 2020, respectively, which indicated that eco-environmental quality witnessed several fluctuations during the study period but showed a generally increasing trend. Among five climate factors, the temperature was the dominant climate factor affecting the ecological environment quality (q value: 0.11-0.19), sunshine duration (0.03-0.17), wind speed (0.03-0.11), and precipitation (0.03-0.08) were the main climate drivers, while the explanatory power of relative humidity to ecological environment quality was relatively small. Such various climate factors impacting the ecological environment quality demonstrated distinct spatial non-stationary and the range of driving impact varied with time. Temperature, sunshine duration, wind speed, and relative humidity promoted ecological environment quality in most regions (regression coefficients > 0), while precipitation mainly had a negative inhibitory impact (regression coefficients < 0). Meanwhile, the greater impacts of these five climate factors were concentrated in high-elevation regions of the south and west or the northern areas. The appropriate enhancement of climate warming and air humidity was beneficial to the improvement of the ecological environment, but the excessive precipitation would result in landslides and exhibit inhibition of vegetation growth. Therefore, selecting cold-tolerant herbs and shrubs, and strengthening climate monitoring and early warning systems (such as drought and excessive precipitation) are essential for ecological restoration.

Integrating Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation into Land Use Optimization: A Case Study in Huailai County, China

Land use plays a crucial role in climate change adaptation and mitigation, as the reasonable design of land use distribution can positively impact these things. Therefore, research interest in climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies in land use and management has been growing. However, the adaptation and mitigation strategies have been handled separately at different dimensions and spatial levels. In this study, we presented a modeling framework for land use optimization that integrates climate change adaptation and mitigation, developed the model, and then applied it to Huailai County, wherein environmental and socioeconomic conditions are sensitive to climate change. The regional land use optimization model was combined with a linear programming model and a modified cellular automata model. Subsequently, the climate change adaptation and mitigation constraints, including ecological water demand, spatial suitability, and carbon sequestration, were incorporated into the model. The results indicate that most regions in the study area could adapt to and mitigate climate change with a constant land use pattern, and the land use conversion region under different climate change scenarios was primarily located in the topography transition region. The optimization results also reveal trade-offs between climate change adaptation and mitigation that were manifested with an increase in carbon sequestration and ecological water demand accompanied by decreases in the net income of agricultural production. Thus, it is necessary to simultaneously incorporate climate change adaptation and mitigation into land use optimization and management, and the proposed model provides a feasible method to incorporate them and balance their trade-offs in land use pattern optimization at a regional scale.