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Zhou Y, Gu S, Yang H, Li Y, Zhao Y, Li Y, Yang Q. Spatiotemporal variation in heatwaves and elderly population exposure across China. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2024; 917:170245. [PMID: 38278263 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.170245] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/27/2023] [Revised: 01/03/2024] [Accepted: 01/15/2024] [Indexed: 01/28/2024]
Abstract
Heatwaves have been intensified worldwide due to climate change, posing great health risks, especially to elderly populations. However, in China, limited studies have employed the heat index to decipher the spatiotemporal trends of heatwaves and their impacts on the elderly population. By comparing the three heatwave definitions, this study aimed to evaluate the long-term spatiotemporal variations in heatwaves from 1964 to 2022 across China using the Excess Heat Factor (EHF). We took advantage of high-resolution reanalysis temperature data on the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform to efficiently calculate the heatwaves. Our results revealed that the frequency and duration of heatwaves increased significantly in approximately 77 % of China's total area, with South China experiencing the most frequent and prolonged heatwaves. Conversely, in most areas, no significant trend was discerned in the growth of the maximum and average heatwave intensities. The total number of elderly people affected by heatwaves surged from approximately 11.96 million in 2001 to over 30.31 million in 2020, with an estimated additional 1.12 million older adults exposed to heatwaves annually across the nation (R2 = 0.60, p < 0.05). The population factor exhibited largest effect on the exposure of heatwaves, followed by climate effects and combined factors, with the corresponding explanatory power about 42.84 %, 34.85 % and 22.31 %, respectively. These individuals predominantly resided in the Northeast China, Southwest China, and South China. We also found geographical variations in heatwave exposure along elevations and land use types. These insights underscore the pressing necessity for formulating strategic interventions to mitigate the health threats presented by mounting heatwave exposure, especially for susceptible groups like the elderly in China.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yun Zhou
- Chongqing Jinfo Mountain National Field Scientific Observation and Research Station for Karst Ecosystem, School of Geographical Sciences, Southwest University, Chongqing 400715, China; New Liberal Arts Laboratory for Sustainable Development of Rural Western China, Chongqing 400715, China; Key Laboratory of Monitoring, Evaluation and Early Warning of Territorial Spatial Planning Implementation, Ministry of Natural Resources, 401147, China
| | - Songwei Gu
- Chongqing Jinfo Mountain National Field Scientific Observation and Research Station for Karst Ecosystem, School of Geographical Sciences, Southwest University, Chongqing 400715, China
| | - Hong Yang
- Department of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Reading, Whiteknights, Reading RG6 6AB, UK.
| | - Yao Li
- Chongqing Jinfo Mountain National Field Scientific Observation and Research Station for Karst Ecosystem, School of Geographical Sciences, Southwest University, Chongqing 400715, China
| | - Yinjun Zhao
- Key Laboratory of Environment Change and Resources Use in Beibu Gulf, Ministry of Education, Nanning Normal University, Nanning 530001, China
| | - Yuechen Li
- Chongqing Jinfo Mountain National Field Scientific Observation and Research Station for Karst Ecosystem, School of Geographical Sciences, Southwest University, Chongqing 400715, China
| | - Qingyuan Yang
- Chongqing Jinfo Mountain National Field Scientific Observation and Research Station for Karst Ecosystem, School of Geographical Sciences, Southwest University, Chongqing 400715, China; New Liberal Arts Laboratory for Sustainable Development of Rural Western China, Chongqing 400715, China; Key Laboratory of Monitoring, Evaluation and Early Warning of Territorial Spatial Planning Implementation, Ministry of Natural Resources, 401147, China.
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Sanches FHC, Martins FR, Conti WRP, Christofoletti RA. The increase in intensity and frequency of surface air temperature extremes throughout the western South Atlantic coast. Sci Rep 2023; 13:6293. [PMID: 37185936 PMCID: PMC10130182 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-023-32722-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/08/2022] [Accepted: 03/31/2023] [Indexed: 05/17/2023] Open
Abstract
The climate is changing. At this stage, it is important to specify an 'extreme' climate and identify patterns that indicate its potential harm worldwide, including the coastal zones. Herein, we considered extremes based on the "Peaks Over Threshold" method from the "Extreme Value Theory". We looked after geographical patterns of surface air temperature (SAT) extremes (e.g., Tmax, Tmin, daily temperature range (DTR), and inter-daily temperature range) over the last 40 years throughout the Brazilian coast. Overall, we found a trend increase in intensity and frequency, but the duration was barely affected. The latitudinal pattern of extremes and the temperatures considered extremes followed the settled perception that areas in higher latitudes will be more affected by the extent of warming. Additionally, the seasonal pattern of DTR demonstrated to be a good approach to make inferences about air mass changes, but joint analyses on extremes with other atmospheric variables are desirable. Given the potential effects of extreme climates on society and natural systems over the world, our study highlights the urge for action to mitigate the effects of the increase in SAT in coastal zones.
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Affiliation(s)
- Fábio H C Sanches
- Institute of Marine Science, Federal University of São Paulo (IMar/UNIFESP), Santos, SP, 11070-102, Brazil.
| | - Fernando R Martins
- Institute of Marine Science, Federal University of São Paulo (IMar/UNIFESP), Santos, SP, 11070-102, Brazil
| | - William R P Conti
- Institute of Marine Science, Federal University of São Paulo (IMar/UNIFESP), Santos, SP, 11070-102, Brazil
| | - Ronaldo A Christofoletti
- Institute of Marine Science, Federal University of São Paulo (IMar/UNIFESP), Santos, SP, 11070-102, Brazil
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Zhao P, He Z, Ma D, Wang W. Evaluation of ERA5-Land reanalysis datasets for extreme temperatures in the Qilian Mountains of China. Front Ecol Evol 2023. [DOI: 10.3389/fevo.2023.1135895] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/26/2023] Open
Abstract
An increase in extreme temperature events could have a significant impact on terrestrial ecosystems. Reanalysis temperature data are an important data set for extreme temperature estimation in mountainous areas with few meteorological stations. The ability of ERA5-Land reanalysis data to capture the extreme temperature index published by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) was evaluated by using the observational data from 17 meteorological stations in the Qilian Mountains (QLM) during 1979–2017. The results show that the ERA5-Land reanalysis temperature data can capture well for the daily maximum temperature, two warm extremes (TXx and TX90p) and one cold extreme (FD0) in the QLM. ERA5-Land’s ability to capture temperature extremes is best in summer and worst in spring and winter. In addition, ERA5-Land can capture trends in all extreme temperature indices except the daily temperature range (DTR). The main bias of ERA5-Land is due to the difference in elevation between the ground observation station and the ERA5-Land grid point. The simulation accuracy of ERA5-Land increases with the decrease of elevation difference. The results can provide a reference for the study of local extreme temperature by using reanalysis data.
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