A structured review of long-term care demand modelling

We need a radical change to take place now´-The potential of integrated healthcare for rural long-term care facilities

OBJECTIVES

This study explores healthcare professionals' perceptions in rural German long-term care facilities, focusing on integrated health systems. The aim is to understand experiences, challenges, and preferences.

METHODS

Twenty nurses and paramedics participated in in-depth interviews. Thematic analysis was applied to transcripts, revealing key themes: acute healthcare provision, interdisciplinary collaboration, telemedicine use, and preferences for the future healthcare landscape.

RESULTS

Themes highlighted factors influencing acute care situations and the crucial role of interdisciplinary collaboration. Integrated care was infrequently encountered despite high demand in rural long-term care facilities.

CONCLUSIONS

Though uncommon, integrated healthcare remains crucial in addressing long-term care facility residents' complex needs. Healthcare professionals express a strong demand for integrated care in rural areas, citing potential benefits for resident wellbeing, healthcare effectiveness, and job satisfaction. The findings guide healthcare organizations in developing institutional-level strategies for integrated care integration, emphasizing its importance in rural settings.

The assignment-dial-a-ride-problem

In this paper, we present the first Assignment-Dial-A-Ride problem motivated by a real-life problem faced by medico-social institutions in France. Every day, disabled people use ride-sharing services to go to an appropriate institution where they receive personal care. These institutions have to manage their staff to meet the demands of the people they receive. They have to solve three interconnected problems: the routing for the ride-sharing services; the assignment of disabled people to institutions; and the staff size in the institutions. We formulate a general Assignment-Dial-A-Ride problem to solve all three at the same time. We first present a matheuristic that iteratively generates routes using a large neighborhood search in which these routes are selected with a mixed integer linear program. After being validated on two special cases in the literature, the matheuristic is applied to real instances in three different areas in France. Several managerial results are derived. In particular, it is found that the amount of cost reduction induced by the people assignment is equivalent to the amount of cost reduction induced by the sharing of vehicles between institutions.

Projecting Long-Term Care Costs for Home and Community-Based Services in China from 2005 to 2050

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study was to estimate and project the trend in long-term care (LTC) costs for home and community-based services as a percentage of gross domestic product in China between 2005 and 2050.

DESIGN

Longitudinal.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

We used 61,249 observations from 37,702 adults age ≥65 years from waves 2005, 2008, 2011, 2014, and 2018 of the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Surveys.

METHODS

LTC costs for home and community-based services consisted of the monetary value of time spent on LTC and the direct LTC cost. We used the age-sex-residence-specific weights provided by the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Surveys to estimate the LTC costs from 2005 to 2018. We used a component-based model to project LTC costs, in which the 2-part model was used to estimate the average LTC costs and the multi-state Markov model approach was used to project the future population by age, sex, and disability state.

RESULTS

The percentage of older adults with disabilities was projected to increase from 6.1% in 2005 to 7.5% in 2020 and 9.6% in 2050. The total LTC cost for home and community-based services were projected to increase from 0.3% of gross domestic product in 2005 to 0.7% in 2020 and to 6.4% in 2050.

CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS

Policymakers in China should take urgent actions to delay the onset of disabilities among older adults, which would curb the increasing LTC costs and maintain the sustainability of the LTC policies.

Informal caregivers in Germany - who are they and which risks and resources do they have?

Background

The aim of this study is to describe the social characteristics, the health and living situation and the prevalence of behavioral risk factors of adult informal caregivers compared to non-caregivers in Germany.

Methods

We used data from the German Health Update (GEDA 2019/2020-EHIS survey) which is a cross-sectional population-based health interview survey conducted between 04/2019 and 09/2020. The sample comprised 22,646 adults living in private households. Three mutually exclusive groups of providing informal care or assistance were differentiated: intense caregivers (informal care ≥10 h/week), less-intense caregivers (informal care<10 h/week) and non-caregivers. For the three groups weighted prevalences of social characteristics, health status (self-perceived health, health-related activity limitations, chronic diseases, low back disorder or other chronic back defect, depressive symptoms), behavioral risk factors (at-risk drinking, current smoking, insufficient physical activity, non-daily fruit and vegetable consumption, obesity) and social risk factors (single household, low social support) were calculated and stratified by gender. Separate regression analyses adjusted for age-group were conducted to identify significant differences between intense and less-intense caregivers vs. non-caregivers, respectively.

Results

Overall, 6.5% were intense caregivers, 15.2% less-intense caregivers and 78.3% non-caregivers. Women provided care more often (23.9%) than men (19.3%). Informal care was most frequently provided in the age group of 45 to 64 years. Intense caregivers reported worse health status, were more often current smokers, physical inactive, obese and lived less often alone than non-caregivers. However, in age-group adjusted regression analyses only few significant differences were seen: Female and male intense caregivers had more often a low back disorder and lived less often alone compared to non-caregivers. In addition, male intense care-givers reported more often worse self-perceived health, health-related activity limitation, and the presence of chronic diseases. In contrast, less-intense caregivers and non-caregivers differed in favor of the less-intense caregivers.

Discussion

A substantial proportion of the adult German population provides informal care regularly, especially women. Intense caregivers are a vulnerable group for negative health outcomes, especially men. In particular measures to prevent low back disorder should be provided. As the necessity of providing informal care will probably increase in the future, this will be important for the society and public health.

Components of Elderly Long-term Care System in Iran and Selected Countries: A Comparative Study

Context: With the increasing number of the elderly suffering from chronic diseases and disabilities, elderly long-term care (LTC) has been the subject of attention by health and welfare policymakers. This study aimed to compare the components of LTC for the elderly in Iran and selected countries. Methods: This comparative study was conducted in 2020. The search was conducted in three databases (PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Science), two search engines (Google Scholar and Google), and the websites of WHO and the Ministry of Health and Welfare of the selected countries from 2000 to 2020 to find relevant documents on the subject. The selection of countries was based on three criteria: the type of health system, having the highest percentage of the elderly population, and the development status. Finally, Germany, France, Sweden, Japan, South Korea, Turkey, Thailand, and Iran were included in the study. The findings were organized using a common LTC framework. Results: In this study, the common framework of LTC systems, including beneficiaries, benefits packages, providers, and financing, was used. The study results showed that developed countries had formal LTC systems with specific mechanisms, but each country had differences in the implementation of different components of this system. On the other hand, in most developing countries, sporadic measures were taken in this field. Conclusions: In general, developed countries have adopted different LTC system approaches in the organization, financing, type of services, and generosity of benefits. In choosing the appropriate LTC model in developing countries, factors such as the health system, resource constraints, social, and cultural status should be considered.

Research on Disability Grading Based on ICF Functional Framework: Empirical Evidence From Zhejiang Province, China

Through assignment method, the total score of disability in multiple dimensions is obtained, and it is divided into five functional states—severe disability, partial disability, moderate disability, mild disability, and health—according to the score, and the probability of death is constructed. Using the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey (CLHLS) database tracking survey data, by constructing a multistate transition probability matrix, the empirical calculation of the multistate disability transfer probability, with the help of the sixth national census data, we estimated maintenance time of each state, life expectancy, etc. The results show that the 3 year transfer probability of the initial healthy elderly is the highest, and the mortality rate is also the lowest. It can be found that the disability state transition probability measurement based on the data is more accurate than the model estimation; the disability scale and life expectancy estimated based on the multistate transition probability matrix are more reliable.

Quality Assurance in Long-Term Care and Development of Quality Indicators in Japan

Dealing with an aging society is a global challenge, and more countries than ever before are now mobilizing their healthcare systems to provide high-quality long-term care (LTC) to older adults. This paper reviews the current situation pertaining to aging and the issues for measuring the LTC quality in Japan. It also introduces current efforts to develop quality indicators for measuring LTC quality. Assuring the quality of LTC and developing indicators to measure its quality is a challenge worldwide. Detailed systems for LTC quality measurement have been developed and managed, primarily in the US. In Japan, on the other hand, such systems do not exist; the public LTC system mostly depends on the evaluation of structural aspects, such as facility structure and staffing. Our research group has been developing quality indicators to measure LTC quality. In the future, we aim to evaluate care quality in various LTC settings using the proposed quality indicators, aiming to improve care quality across LTC settings in the community-based integrated care system.

Social Insurance Accounting for a Notional Defined Contribution Scheme Combining Retirement and Long-Term Care Benefits

This paper develops a social insurance accounting model for a notional defined contribution (NDC) scheme combining retirement and long-term care (LTC) contingencies. The procedure relies on standard double-entry bookkeeping and enables us to compile a “Swedish” type actuarial balance sheet (ABS) following a framework equivalent to an open group approach. This methodology is suitable for reporting the system’s solvency status and can show periodical changes in the system’s financial position by means of an income statement. The information underpinning the actuarial valuation is based on events and transactions that are verifiable at the valuation date, without considering expected future trends. The paper also contains an illustrative example to make it easier for policymakers to understand the main advantages and difficulties of our proposal. The policy conclusions stress the need to properly report social insurance benefits to enhance transparency and sustainability and to improve decision-making because it is in the public interest to do so.

Trends in ageing and ageing-in-place and the future market for institutional care: scenarios and policy implications

In several OECD countries the percentage of elderly in long-term care institutions has been declining as a result of ageing-in-place. However, due to the rapid ageing of population in the next decades future demand for institutional care is likely to increase. In this paper we perform a scenario analysis to examine the potential impact of these two opposite trends on the demand for institutional elderly care in the Netherlands. We find that the demand for institutional care first declines as a result of the expected increase in the number of low-need elderly that age-in-place. This effect is strong at first but then peters out. After this first period the effect of the demographic trend takes over, resulting in an increase in demand for institutional care. We argue that the observed trends are likely to result in a growing mismatch between demand and supply of institutional care. Whereas the current stock of institutional care is primarily focussed on low-need (residential) care, future demand will increasingly consist of high-need (nursing home) care for people with cognitive as well as somatic disabilities. We discuss several policy options to reduce the expected mismatch between supply and demand for institutional care.