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Chen KY, Huang YC, Liu CK, Li SJ, Chen M. Machine learning-driven prediction of medical expenses in triple-vessel PCI patients using feature selection. BMC Health Serv Res 2025; 25:105. [PMID: 39833782 PMCID: PMC11744989 DOI: 10.1186/s12913-025-12218-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/06/2024] [Accepted: 01/03/2025] [Indexed: 01/22/2025] Open
Abstract
Revascularization therapies, such as percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) and coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG), alleviate symptoms and treat myocardial ischemia. Patients with multivessel disease, particularly those undergoing 3-vessel PCI, are more susceptible to procedural complications, which can increase healthcare costs. Developing efficient strategies for resource allocation has become a paramount concern due to tightening healthcare budgets and the escalating costs of treating heart conditions. Therefore, it is essential to develop an evaluation model to estimate the costs of PCI surgeries and identify the key factors influencing these costs to enhance healthcare quality. This study utilized the National Health Insurance Research Database (NHIRD), encompassing data from multiple hospitals across Taiwan and covering up to 99% of the population. The study examined data from triple-vessel PCI patients treated between January 2015 and December 2017. Additionally, six machine-learning algorithms and five cross-validation techniques were employed to identify key features and construct the evaluation model. The machine learning algorithms used included linear regression (LR), random forest (RF), support vector regression (SVR), generalized linear model boost (GLMBoost), Bayesian generalized linear model (BayesGLM), and extreme gradient boosting (eXGB). Among these, the eXGB model exhibited outstanding performance, with the following metrics: MSE (0.02419), RMSE (0.15552), and MAPE (0.00755). We found that the patient's medication use in the previous year is also crucial in determining subsequent surgical costs. Additionally, 25 significant features influencing surgical expenses were identified. The top variables included 1-year medical expenditure before PCI surgery (hospitalization and outpatient costs), average blood transfusion volume, ventilator use duration, Charlson Comorbidity Index scores, emergency department visits, and patient age. This research is crucial for estimating potential expenses linked to complications from the procedure, directing the allocation of resources in the future, and acting as an important resource for crafting medical management policies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kuan-Yu Chen
- Division of Cardiology, Taipei City Hospital, Zhongxing Branch, Taipei, 106, Taiwan
- Graduate Institute of Business Administration, College of Management, Fu Jen Catholic University, No.510, Zhongzheng Rd., Xinzhuang Dist., New Taipei City, 242062, Taiwan (R.O.C.)
| | - Yen-Chun Huang
- Department of Artificial Intelligence, Tamkang University, No.151, Yingzhuan Rd., Tamsui Dist., New Taipei City, 251301, Taiwan (R.O.C.)
| | - Chih-Kuang Liu
- Artificial Intelligence Development Center, Fu Jen Catholic University, No.510, Zhongzheng Rd., Xinzhuang Dist., New Taipei City, 242062, Taiwan (R.O.C.)
- Department of Urology, Fu Jen Catholic University Hospital, New Taipei City, 243, Taiwan
| | - Shao-Jung Li
- Cardiovascular Research Center, Wan Fang Hospital, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, 116242, Taiwan
- Taipei Heart Institute, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, 110242, Taiwan
- Department of Surgery, School of Medicine, College of Medicine, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, 110242, Taiwan
- Division of Cardiovascular Surgery, Department of Surgery, Wan Fang Hospital, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, 116242, Taiwan
- Division of Cardiovascular Surgery, Department of Surgery, Shuang Ho Hospital, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan
| | - Mingchih Chen
- Graduate Institute of Business Administration, College of Management, Fu Jen Catholic University, No.510, Zhongzheng Rd., Xinzhuang Dist., New Taipei City, 242062, Taiwan (R.O.C.).
- Artificial Intelligence Development Center, Fu Jen Catholic University, No.510, Zhongzheng Rd., Xinzhuang Dist., New Taipei City, 242062, Taiwan (R.O.C.).
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Chew DS, Cowper PA, Al-Khalidi H, Anstrom KJ, Daniels MR, Davidson-Ray L, Li Y, Michler RE, Panza JA, Piña IL, Rouleau JL, Velazquez EJ, Mark DB. Cost-Effectiveness of Coronary Artery Bypass Surgery Versus Medicine in Ischemic Cardiomyopathy: The STICH Randomized Clinical Trial. Circulation 2022; 145:819-828. [PMID: 35044802 PMCID: PMC8959089 DOI: 10.1161/circulationaha.121.056276] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The STICH Randomized Clinical Trial (Surgical Treatment for Ischemic Heart Failure) demonstrated that coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) reduced all-cause mortality rates out to 10 years compared with medical therapy alone (MED) in patients with ischemic cardiomyopathy and reduced left ventricular function (ejection fraction ≤35%). We examined the economic implications of these results. METHODS We used a decision-analytic patient-level simulation model to estimate the lifetime costs and benefits of CABG and MED using patient-level resource use and clinical data collected in the STICH trial. Patient-level costs were calculated by applying externally derived US cost weights to resource use counts during trial follow-up. A 3% discount rate was applied to both future costs and benefits. The primary outcome was the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio assessed from the US health care sector perspective. RESULTS For the CABG arm, we estimated 6.53 quality-adjusted life-years (95% CI, 5.70-7.53) and a lifetime cost of $140 059 (95% CI, $106 401 to $180 992). For the MED arm, the corresponding estimates were 5.52 (95% CI, 5.06-6.09) quality-adjusted life-years and $74 894 lifetime cost (95% CI, $58 372 to $93 541). The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for CABG compared with MED was $63 989 per quality-adjusted life-year gained. At a societal willingness-to-pay threshold of $100 000 per quality-adjusted life-year gained, CABG was found to be economically favorable compared with MED in 87% of microsimulations. CONCLUSIONS In the STICH trial, in patients with ischemic cardiomyopathy and reduced left ventricular function, CABG was economically attractive relative to MED at current benchmarks for value in the United States. REGISTRATION URL: https://www. CLINICALTRIALS gov; Unique identifier: NCT00023595.
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Affiliation(s)
- Derek S Chew
- Duke Clinical Research Institute (D.S.C., P.A.C., H.A., K.J.A., M.R.D., L.D.-R., Y.L., D.B.M.), Duke University, Durham, NC.,Department of Cardiac Sciences, Libin Cardiovascular Institute (D.S.C.), University of Calgary, Alberta, Canada.,O'Brien Institute for Public Health (D.S.C.), University of Calgary, Alberta, Canada
| | - Patricia A Cowper
- Duke Clinical Research Institute (D.S.C., P.A.C., H.A., K.J.A., M.R.D., L.D.-R., Y.L., D.B.M.), Duke University, Durham, NC
| | - Hussein Al-Khalidi
- Duke Clinical Research Institute (D.S.C., P.A.C., H.A., K.J.A., M.R.D., L.D.-R., Y.L., D.B.M.), Duke University, Durham, NC.,Department of Biostatistics and Bioinformatics (H.A., K.J.A.), Duke University, Durham, NC
| | - Kevin J Anstrom
- Duke Clinical Research Institute (D.S.C., P.A.C., H.A., K.J.A., M.R.D., L.D.-R., Y.L., D.B.M.), Duke University, Durham, NC.,Department of Biostatistics and Bioinformatics (H.A., K.J.A.), Duke University, Durham, NC
| | - Melanie R Daniels
- Duke Clinical Research Institute (D.S.C., P.A.C., H.A., K.J.A., M.R.D., L.D.-R., Y.L., D.B.M.), Duke University, Durham, NC
| | - Linda Davidson-Ray
- Duke Clinical Research Institute (D.S.C., P.A.C., H.A., K.J.A., M.R.D., L.D.-R., Y.L., D.B.M.), Duke University, Durham, NC
| | - Yanhong Li
- Duke Clinical Research Institute (D.S.C., P.A.C., H.A., K.J.A., M.R.D., L.D.-R., Y.L., D.B.M.), Duke University, Durham, NC
| | - Robert E Michler
- Department of Cardiothoracic and Vascular Surgery, Montefiore Medical Center, Bronx, NY (R.E.M.)
| | - Julio A Panza
- Department of Cardiology, Westchester Medical Center, Westchester Medical Center Health Network, Valhalla, NY (J.A.P.)
| | - Ileana L Piña
- Department of Medicine, Wayne State University, Detroit, MI (I.L.P.)
| | - Jean L Rouleau
- Institut de Cardiologie de Montréal, Université de Montréal, Canada (J.L.R.)
| | - Eric J Velazquez
- Section of Cardiovascular Medicine, Yale School of Medicine, New Haven, CT (E.J.V.)
| | - Daniel B Mark
- Duke Clinical Research Institute (D.S.C., P.A.C., H.A., K.J.A., M.R.D., L.D.-R., Y.L., D.B.M.), Duke University, Durham, NC.,Division of Cardiology, Department of Medicine, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, NC (D.B.M.)
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Aquino GSLDM, Botelho JB, Matsuda CN, Silva MAD, Janella BL. Sigle-center, observational, prospective study describing same-day discharge implementation for uncomplicated elective percutaneous coronary intervention by radial approach: Study protocol. REVISTA CIÊNCIAS EM SAÚDE 2021. [DOI: 10.21876/rcshci.v11i3.1123] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/03/2022] Open
Abstract
Objectives: The study's primary objective will be to evaluate the safety and describe the initial experience of implementing early discharge (on the same day) of coronary patients from the Unified Health System undergoing elective, uncomplicated, transradial percutaneous coronary intervention. The secondary objective will be to assess the impact on the direct cost per patient compared to previously known data from the classic hospital stay used (hospital overnight). Methods: Observational and prospective study of patients undergoing elective uncomplicated transradial percutaneous coronary intervention with early discharge, respecting the inclusion and exclusion criteria. Follow-up of patients will be carried out to prove the safety of the new strategy in the population of the Unified Health System and to compare the direct costs between overnight stays and discharge on the same day. This will be the first study dedicated to primarily evaluating the safety of early discharge after elective uncomplicated transradial coronary angioplasty, validating this protocol in the population of the Brazilian public health system.
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Ahmad M, Asghar M, Joshi U, Neilson NA, Tye M, Divecha C, Kim M, Mungee S. Study of Association Between Different Coronary Artery Disease Presentations and Its Effect on Short-Term Mortality, Readmission, and Cost in Patients Undergoing Percutaneous Coronary Interventions. Cureus 2021; 13:e16862. [PMID: 34513438 PMCID: PMC8411994 DOI: 10.7759/cureus.16862] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 07/30/2021] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
Introduction Atherosclerotic coronary artery disease (CAD) is the major cause of mortality in the USA. CAD requiring percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) can have a wide spectrum of presentations. We reviewed the cost of admission and PCI at the tertiary care center stratified for different CAD presentation types. Methods We performed a retrospective study of 7,389 patients undergoing coronary angiogram at our facility from 2015 to 2017. Patients were selected from CathPCI registry. Chart review was done for readmission and death data. Cost data were provided by the finance department. Patients going for coronary artery bypass surgery (CABG) were excluded. We split the patients based on their need for PCI. Cost analysis was based on CAD presentation types (No symptoms, atypical symptoms, stable angina, unstable angina, NSTEMI [non-ST segment elevation myocardial infarction], STEMI [ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction]). Adjusted linear regression was run for the outcomes. Primary outcomes were 30-day readmission and death. The secondary outcome was cost of admission. Results The final sample size was 6,403. The mean age was 65.6 years (SD: 12.5; male: 63.8%). 2444 required PCI (38%; p < 0.001). PCI group had lower mean age (62.5 years; SD: 12.3, p<0.001) with lower BMI (30.6 vs 31.1, p=0.015). PCI group had significantly lower odds for 30-day readmission (OR: 0.63; CI: 0.45-0.89; p=0.009) and 30-day mortality (OR:0.60; CI: 0.41-0.89; p = 0.011). A severe presentation increased the odds of getting PCI. Cost of admission was higher in all groups receiving PCI. Conclusions PCI group had better 30-day readmission and mortality rates. PCI increases the cost of admission in all CAD types.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mansoor Ahmad
- Cardiology, University of Illinois College of Medicine at Peoria, Peoria, USA
| | - Muhammad Asghar
- Internal Medicine, University of Illinois Chicago, College of Medicine at Peoria, Peoria, USA
| | - Udit Joshi
- Cardiology, University of Illinois College of Medicine at Peoria, Peoria, USA
| | - Nathan A Neilson
- Cardiology, University of Illinois Chicago, College of Medicine at Peoria, Peoria, USA
| | - Michael Tye
- Cardiology, University of Illinois Chicago, College of Medicine at Peoria, Peoria, USA
| | - Chirag Divecha
- Cardiology, University of Illinois College of Medicine at Peoria, Peoria, USA
| | - Minchul Kim
- Internal Medicine, University of Illinois College of Medicine at Peoria, Peoria, USA
| | - Sudhir Mungee
- Cardiology, University of Illinois College of Medicine, Order of St. Francis Medical Centre, Peoria, USA
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Cost-effectiveness of myocardial perfusion SPECT and stress test according to coronary revascularization therapy, cardiac events and total mortality: Register of 8496 patients. Rev Esp Med Nucl Imagen Mol 2020. [DOI: 10.1016/j.remnie.2020.06.003] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/21/2022]
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Cost-effectiveness of myocardial perfusion SPECT and stress test according to coronary revascularization therapy, cardiac events and total mortality: Register of 8,496 patients. Rev Esp Med Nucl Imagen Mol 2020; 39:212-219. [PMID: 32273238 DOI: 10.1016/j.remn.2020.01.006] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/17/2019] [Revised: 01/09/2020] [Accepted: 01/19/2020] [Indexed: 11/24/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE The aim was to analyze the cost-effectiveness ratio (CER) of stress electrocardiogram (ES) and stress myocardial perfusion imaging (SPECT-MPI) according to coronary revascularization (CR) therapy, cardiac events (CE) and total mortality (TM). MATERIAL AND METHODS A total of 8,496 consecutive patients who underwent SPECT-MPI were followed-up (mean 5.3±3.5years). Cost-effectiveness for coronary bypass (CABG) or percutaneous CR (PCR) (45.6%/54.4%) according to combined electrocardiographic ischemia and scintigraphic ischemia were evaluated. Effectiveness was evaluated as TM, CE, life-year saved observed (LYSO) and CE-LYSO; costs analyses were conducted from the perspective of the health care payer. A sensitivity analysis was performed considering current CABG/PCR ratios (12%/88%). RESULTS When electrocardiogram and SPECT approaches are combined, the cost-effectiveness values for CABG ranged between 112,589€ (electrocardiographic and scintigraphic ischemia) and 2,814,715€ (without ischemia)/event avoided, 38,664 and 2,221,559€/LYSO; for PCR ranged between 18,824€ (electrocardiographic and scintigraphic ischemia) and 46,377€ (without ischemia)/event avoided, 6,464 and 36,604€/LYSO. To CE: the cost-effectiveness values of the CABG and CPR in presence of electrocardiographic and scintigraphic ischemia were 269,904€/CE-avoided and 24,428€/CE-avoided, respectively; and the €/LYSO of the CABG and PCR were 152,488 and 13,801, respectively. The RCE was maintained for the current proportion of revascularized patients (12%/88%). CONCLUSIONS Combined ES and SPECT-MPI results, allows differentiation between patient groups, where the PCR and CABG are more cost-effective in different economic frameworks. The major CER in relation to CR, CE and TM occurs in patients with electrocardiographic and scintigraphic ischemia. PCR is more cost-effective than CABG.
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