The effect of Fisher information matrix approximation methods in population optimal design calculations

Optimizing study design in LPS challenge studies for quantifying drug induced inhibition of TNFα response: Did we miss the prime time?

In this work we evaluate the study design of LPS challenge experiments used for quantification of drug induced inhibition of TNFα response and provide general guidelines of how to improve the study design. Analysis of model simulated data, using a recently published TNFα turnover model, as well as the optimal design tool PopED have been used to find the optimal values of three key study design variables - time delay between drug and LPS administration, LPS dose, and sampling time points - that in turn could make the resulting TNFα response data more informative. Our findings suggest that the current rule of thumb for choosing the time delay should be reconsidered, and that the placement of the measurements after maximal TNFα response are crucial for the quality of the experiment. Furthermore, a literature study summarizing a wide range of published LPS challenge studies is provided, giving a broader perspective of how LPS challenge studies are usually conducted both in a preclinical and clinical setting.

Assessing robustness of designs for random effects parameters for nonlinear mixed-effects models

Optimal designs for nonlinear models are dependent on the choice of parameter values. Various methods have been proposed to provide designs that are robust to uncertainty in the prior choice of parameter values. These methods are generally based on estimating the expectation of the determinant (or a transformation of the determinant) of the information matrix over the prior distribution of the parameter values. For high dimensional models this can be computationally challenging. For nonlinear mixed-effects models the question arises as to the importance of accounting for uncertainty in the prior value of the variances of the random effects parameters. In this work we explore the influence of the variance of the random effects parameters on the optimal design. We find that the method for approximating the expectation and variance of the likelihood is of potential importance for considering the influence of random effects. The most common approximation to the likelihood, based on a first-order Taylor series approximation, yields designs that are relatively insensitive to the prior value of the variance of the random effects parameters and under these conditions it appears to be sufficient to consider uncertainty on the fixed-effects parameters only.

The effect of using a robust optimality criterion in model based adaptive optimization

Optimizing designs using robust (global) optimality criteria has been shown to be a more flexible approach compared to using local optimality criteria. Additionally, model based adaptive optimal design (MBAOD) may be less sensitive to misspecification in the prior information available at the design stage. In this work, we investigate the influence of using a local (lnD) or a robust (ELD) optimality criterion for a MBAOD of a simulated dose optimization study, for rich and sparse sampling schedules. A stopping criterion for accurate effect prediction is constructed to determine the endpoint of the MBAOD by minimizing the expected uncertainty in the effect response of the typical individual. 50 iterations of the MBAODs were run using the MBAOD R-package, with the concentration from a one-compartment first-order absorption pharmacokinetic model driving the population effect response in a sigmoidal EMAX pharmacodynamics model. The initial cohort consisted of eight individuals in two groups and each additional cohort added two individuals receiving a dose optimized as a discrete covariate. The MBAOD designs using lnD and ELD optimality with misspecified initial model parameters were compared by evaluating the efficiency relative to an lnD-optimal design based on the true parameter values. For the explored example model, the MBAOD using ELD-optimal designs converged quicker to the theoretically optimal lnD-optimal design based on the true parameters for both sampling schedules. Thus, using a robust optimality criterion in MBAODs could reduce the number of adaptations required and improve the practicality of adaptive trials using optimal design.