A spatiotemporal analysis of urban resilience to the COVID-19 pandemic in the Yangtze River Delta

Evaluating the metropolitan public health preparedness for pandemics using entropy-TOPSIS-IF

Introduction

Metropolitan governance's efficacy is regularly gauged by its capability for public health preparedness, a critical component, particularly in the post-pandemic climate, as global cities reassess their mitigation abilities. This process has broader implications, curbing mortality rates and amplifying sustainability. Current methodologies for preparedness assessment lean primarily on either Subjective Evaluation-Based Assessment (SBA), predicated on experts' input on various capacity indicators, or they opt for Data-Based quantitative Assessments (DBA), chiefly utilizing public statistic data.

Methods

The manuscript discusses an urgent need for integrating both SBA and DBA to adequately measure Metropolitan Public Health Pandemics Preparedness (MPHPP), thus proposing a novel entropy-TOPSIS-IF model for comprehensive evaluation of MPHPP. Within this proposed model, experts' subjective communication is transformed into quantitative data via the aggregation of fuzzy decisions, while objective data is collected from public statistics sites. Shannon's entropy and TOPSIS methods are enacted on these data sets to ascertain the optimal performer after normalization and data isotropy.

Results and discussion

The core contribution of the entropy-TOPSIS-IF model lies in its assessment flexibility, making it universally applicable across various contexts, regardless of the availability of expert decisions or quantitative data. To illustrate the efficacy of the entropy-TOPSIS-IF model, a numerical application is presented, examining three Chinese metropolises through chosen criteria according to the evaluations of three experts. A sensitivity analysis is provided to further affirm the stability and robustness of the suggested MPHPP evaluation model.

Sustainable planning in Wuhan City during COVID-19: an analysis of influential factors, risk profiles, and clustered patterns

The outbreak of novel coronavirus pneumonia (COVID-19) is closely related to the intra-urban environment. It is important to understand the influence mechanism and risk characteristics of urban environment on infectious diseases from the perspective of urban environment composition. In this study, we used python to collect Sina Weibo help data as well as urban multivariate big data, and The random forest model was used to measure the contribution of each influential factor within to the COVID-19 outbreak. A comprehensive risk evaluation system from the perspective of urban environment was constructed, and the entropy weighting method was used to produce the weights of various types of risks, generate the specific values of the four types of risks, and obtain the four levels of comprehensive risk zones through the K-MEANS clustering of Wuhan's central urban area for zoning planning. Based on the results, we found: ①the five most significant indicators contributing to the risk of the Wuhan COVID-19 outbreak were Road Network Density, Shopping Mall Density, Public Transport Density, Educational Facility Density, Bank Density. Floor Area Ration, Poi Functional Mix ②After streamlining five indicators such as Proportion of Aged Population, Tertiary Hospital Density, Open Space Density, Night-time Light Intensity, Number of Beds Available in Designated Hospitals, the prediction accuracy of the random forest model was the highest. ③The spatial characteristics of the four categories of new crown epidemic risk, namely transmission risk, exposure risk, susceptibility risk and Risk of Scarcity of Medical Resources, were highly differentiated, and a four-level integrated risk zone was obtained by K-MEANS clustering. Its distribution pattern was in the form of "multicenter-periphery" gradient diffusion. For the risk composition of the four-level comprehensive zones combined with the internal characteristics of the urban environment in specific zones to develop differentiated control strategies. Targeted policies were then devised for each partition, offering a practical advantage over singular COVID-19 impact factor analyses. This methodology, beneficial for future public health crises, enables the swift identification of unique risk profiles in different partitions, streamlining the formulation of precise policies. The overarching goal is to maintain regular social development, harmonizing preventive measures and economic efforts.

Urban resilience to socioeconomic disruptions during the COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence from China

The COVID-19 pandemic and the associated restrictions have raised the awareness of building pandemic-resilient cities. Prior studies often evaluated the resilience of one type of urban system while lacking a comparison across various urban subsystems. This study fills this gap by measuring and comparing the adaptive resilience to the pandemic of various urban subsystems in Chinese cities. We propose a novel outcome measurement of the pandemic's socioeconomic impacts on cities, i.e., the citizens' complaints data, and use its temporal changes to measure cities' adaptive resilience to the pandemic. We find a wide range of urban subsystems were severely shocked by the pandemic, including the urban economy, construction-and-housing sector, welfare system, and education system. Different urban subsystems exhibit divergent degrees of adaptive resilience to the pandemic. Using cluster analysis, we also identify three types of cities with different patterns of adaptive resilience: cities whose general economies were the least resilient, cities whose construction-and-housing system was the least resilient, and cities that were mostly affected by restriction measures. Our findings contribute to the understanding of the pandemic's socioeconomic costs and help identify the divergent resilience of different urban subsystems so as to develop targeted policy interventions to improve cities' resilience to the pandemic.

Resilience assessment and obstacle factor analysis of urban areas facing waterlogging disasters: a case study of Shanghai, China

In recent years, accelerated global warming, rainstorms, typhoons, and other natural disasters have been frequently observed, bringing immeasurable direct and indirect economic losses to urban areas. Determining how to further enhance the resilience of urban areas has become an important topic in economic and social development. Therefore, based on waterlogging scenarios, this study uses a more accurate research method combining the subjective evaluation AHP (analytic hierarchy process) method and objective evaluation TOPSIS (Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution) method to evaluate the urban resilience of 16 districts of the Shanghai megacity as the research objects and divides the resilience grade results using the ArcGIS natural breakpoint method. The results show that (1) the overall resilience of all districts in Shanghai needs to be further improved. Among the 16 districts in Shanghai, Pudong New Area has the highest urban resilience level. There are more areas with moderate and above-moderate resilience levels, while some areas with low and moderate resilience levels are distributed mainly in the downtown area of Shanghai. (2) Through the analysis of obstacles to the development of urban resilience in the districts of Shanghai, such obstacles tend to be the same under the waterlogging disaster scenarios. Compared to ecological and social policy resilience indices, economic resilience indices and infrastructure resilience indices significantly impact the resilience of urban districts under waterlogging scenarios. The above conclusions can not only help improve the direction of urban resilience governance in various districts of Shanghai but also provide empirical theoretical experience for the resilient construction of urban areas in the future.

Pandemic publishing: A bibliometric review of COVID-19 research in the crisis and disaster literature

Iconic events have traditionally instigated progression in the fields of crisis and disaster science. In the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, the pressing question is how this global health emergency impacted the research agendas of our field. We reviewed contributions in ten important crisis and disaster journals in the two and a half years following the COVID-19 outbreak from 1 January 2020 to 30 June 2022. Specifically, we conducted a bibliometric review using thematic mapping analysis to distill the major themes covered by the emerging COVID-19 literature within crisis and disaster science (N = 239 articles). Our results indicate that several well-known topics are applied to the COVID-19 pandemic, such as risk, crisis communication, governance, resilience and vulnerability. The pandemic also gave rise to new topics, such as citizen behavior, state power, and the business and mental health impact of crisis measures. Several studies are already looking ahead by identifying lessons for preparedness and mitigation of future pandemics. By taking stock of the surge of COVID-19 studies while this academic literature is still taking shape, this review sets the stage for future contributions to the crisis and disaster literatures. It provides valuable lessons for what topics are studied and what themes need more attention. The COVID-19 pandemic is destined to become an iconic event for our literature that not only strengthens and deepens existing debates, but also clearly offers the opportunity to draw in new perspectives and broaden the horizon of crisis and disaster science.

The Politics of Covid-19 Containment Policies in europe

Do partisan preferences, the electoral system, checks on government, political fragmentation, civil liberties and trust contribute to explaining the stringency of containment policies in European countries? Empirical studies suggest that political science theories have helped very little in understanding European democracies' political response to the pandemic's first wave. We argue in this article that the negligible effect of politics, broadly defined, is confined to the first wave and that during subsequent waves over the autumn 2020 to spring 2021 season some of the above political factors contribute to our understanding of variation in countries' response. Employing a sample of 26 European democracies analyzing daily data on the stringency of adopted containment policies we provide evidence that politics does not matter during the first wave but is substantively important during later waves.

New sights on the impact of spatial composition of production factors for socioeconomic recovery in the post-epidemic era: a case study of cities in central and eastern China

The COVID-19 pandemic led to a sharp economic contraction. A comprehensive understanding of the relationship between the spatial composition of production factor (SCPF) and socioeconomic recovery is still missing. Here, we applied the contrasting status of nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) concentrations in cities in central and eastern China as natural laboratories. From the perspective of the spatial composition of land (SCL) and the dependence on the inflow population (DIP), four quantifiable indicators (resilience, impact, sensitivity, recovery speed) were used to analyze the adaptability of SCPF to the epidemic lockdown. The results indicate that appropriate SCPF is a prerequisite for a complete "land-population-industry" nexus. The built-up area proportion is below 74.38%, with higher adaptability to epidemic shocks. The range of rural built-up proportion conducive to economic recovery is 10.18%-15.18%. The proportions of various land types inside the city's defense unit should also be constrained. Similarly, DIP is advocated to be maintained below 17.5%. For urban-rural fringe areas, the response to epidemic prevention and socioeconomic recovery are rapid. This observation-driven study indicated that COVID-19 is a shocking reminder for policymakers, to improve the socioeconomic recovery ability from the spatial composition of production factor perspective in the post-COVID-19 era.

Community resilience to pandemics: An assessment framework developed based on the review of COVID-19 literature

The COVID-19 outbreak in 2019 and the challenges it posed to communities around the world, demonstrated the necessity of enhancing the resilience of communities to pandemics. In this regard, assessment frameworks can play an essential role and guide resilience-building efforts. However, the lack of a comprehensive assessment framework has led to a focus on sectoral evaluation. This study aims to propose an integrated framework for assessing the pandemic resilience of communities. For this purpose, we rely on a systematic review of literature indexed in major academic databases. We have thoroughly analyzed a total number of 115 related documents to extract relevant criteria. Findings show that many criteria and factors affect community resilience to pandemics. By inductive content coding in MAXQDA software, we have categorized these criteria into five dimensions of Institutional, Social, Economic, Infrastructural, and Demographic. Good leadership and management, insurance and governmental support, planning and preparation, expertise and labor, and available equipment and technologies are the most important institutional criteria. Communication and collective identity, mutual support, public safety and protection, public awareness, and social justice are the influential social criteria. Economic sustainability and resource availability are criteria of economic resilience. Sufficiency of services, public spaces, housing tenure, and transportation system are the main criteria related to the built environment and infrastructural dimension. Finally, demographic resilience includes physical health, psychological well-being, life quality, and hygiene. Based on these criteria, this study develops an integrated evaluation framework that researchers can implement along with conventional assessment and ranking methods to determine the level of community resilience to pandemics.

Spatial-Temporal Characteristics of Multi-Hazard Resilience in Ecologically Fragile Areas of Southwest China: A Case Study in Aba

Aba's topography, weather, and climate make it prone to landslides, mudslides, and other natural disasters, which limit economic and social growth. Assessing and improving regional resilience is important to mitigate natural disasters and achieve sustainable development. In this paper, the entropy weight method is used to calculate the resilience of Aba under multi-hazard stress from 2010 to 2018 by combining the existing framework with the disaster resilience of the place (DROP) model. Then spatial-temporal characteristics are analyzed based on the coefficient of variation and exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA). Finally, partial least squares (PLS) regression is used to identify the key influences on disaster resilience. The results show that (1) the disaster resilience in Aba increased from 2010 to 2018 but dropped in 2013 and 2017 due to large-scale disasters. (2) There are temporal and spatial differences in the level of development in each of the Aba counties. From 2010 to 2016, disaster resilience shows a significant positive spatial association and high-high (HH) aggregation in the east and low-low (LL) aggregation in the west. Then the spatial aggregation weakened after 2017. This paper proposes integrating regional development, strengthening the development level building, and emphasizing disaster management for Aba.

Establishment of hospital resilience framework in urban China: insight from Wuhan City

Since the Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) swept the world, many countries face a problem that is a shortage of medical resources. The role of emergency medical facilities in response to the epidemic is beginning to arouse public attention, and the construction of the urban resilient emergency response framework has become the critical way to resist the epidemic. Today, China has controlled the domestically transmitted COVID-19 cases through multiple emergency medical facilities and inclusive patient admission criteria. Most of the existing literature focuses on case studies or characterizations of individual facilities. This paper constructs an evaluation system to measure urban hospital resilience from the spatial perspective and deciphered the layout patterns and regularities of emergency medical facilities in Wuhan, the city most affected by the epidemic in China. Findings indicate that the pattern of one center and two circles are a more compelling layout structure for urban emergency medical facilities in terms of accessibility and service coverage for residents. Meanwhile, the Fangcang shelter hospital has an extraordinary performance in terms of emergency response time, and it is a sustainable facility utilization approach in the post-epidemic era. This study bolsters areas of the research on the urban resilient emergency response framework. Moreover, the paper summarizes new medical facilities’ planning and location characteristics and hopes to provide policy-makers and urban planners with valuable empirical evidence.

Investigating into the Coupling and Coordination Relationship between Urban Resilience and Urbanization: A Case Study of Hunan Province, China

In the context of accelerated urbanization, constructing resilient cities is an effective approach to tackling risks, such as extreme weather, and various urban challenges. The coupling and coordinated development of urbanization and urban resilience is a prominent embodiment of urban sustainable development and high-quality development capacity. In this study, Hunan Province, China, which is frequently affected by various disasters, is selected as a representative for examining the coupling and coordination relationship between urban resilience and urbanization level. The panel data are adopted to construct a dual-system evaluation framework integrating urban resilience and urbanization level based on the entropy weight-coefficient of variation (CV)-CRITIC method. The coupling coordination degree of this dual-system evaluation framework is calculated with the coupling model in physics and GM (1, 1) grey prediction model. Additionally, the spatial–temporal evolution characteristics of the coupling coordination degree are investigated and analyzed by ArcGIS and Geoda software. The following are indicated from the results: (1) The resilience of all cities is related to their geographical location and is characterized by a decrease from east to west; in addition, the resilience level of most cities presents a downward trend with time. (2) The urbanization level of most cities develops stably with time, but there is a growing gap in the urbanization level between regions. (3) There is a strong correlation between urban resilience and urbanization level in all cities; the unbalanced coupling and coordinated development emerge, specifically manifested by the polarization phenomenon. Eventually, a circle-difference spatial distribution pattern that starts from the central urban agglomeration and gradually decreases to the periphery is formed. (4) The prediction results of the coupling coordination degree suggest that there is an increasingly distinct polarization trend for the coupling and coordinated development between cities, and it is necessary to pay attention to those cities with a declined predicted value. (5) There is a significant positive spatial autocorrelation and agglomeration effects in the distribution of the coupling coordination degree of all cities, and the correlation is getting stronger with each passing year; the correlation mode is mainly characterized by homogeneity and supplemented by heterogeneity. Finally, several suggestions are proposed in this paper, in an attempt to lead the coordinated development of regions by novel urbanization and thus promote the sustainable development of cities. The methods and insights adopted in this study contribute to investigating the relationship between urban resilience and urbanization in China and other regions worldwide.

Evolution and analysis of urban resilience and its influencing factors: a case study of Jiangsu Province, China

This research uses panel data of cities in Jiangsu from 2009 to 2018 to construct a resilience framework that measures the level of urban resilience. A combination of the entropy method, Theil index, Moran ' sI , and the Spatial Durbin Model (SDM) is used to explore regional resilience development differences, the spatial correlation characteristics of urban resilience, and its influencing factors. The study finds that: (1) The spatial heterogeneity of regional resilience development is significant, as the overall level of resilience presents a spatial distribution pattern of descending from southern Jiangsu to central Jiangsu and to northern Jiangsu. (2) The total Theil index shows a wave-like downward trend during the study period. The differences between southern Jiangsu, central Jiangsu, and northern Jiangsu make up the main reason for the overall difference of urban resilience in Jiangsu Province. Among the three regions, the gap in resilience development level within southern Jiangsu is the largest. (3) There is a clear positive spatial correlation between urban resilience in the province and an obvious agglomeration trend of urban resilience levels. Among all subsystems, urban ecological resilience is the weakest and needs to be further improved. (4) Lastly, among the five factors affecting urban resilience, general public fiscal expenditure/GDP, which characterizes government factors, has the largest positive impact on urban resilience, while foreign trade has a negative impact. In the following studies, the theme of urban resilience should be constantly deepened, and more extensive data monitoring should be carried out for the urban system to improve the diversity of data sources, so as to assess urban resilience more accurately.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11069-022-05368-x.

Coupling Coordination and Influencing Factors of Land Development Intensity and Urban Resilience of the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration

The rapid urbanization of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration has led to the convergence of population, land and capital. The coordination between land development intensity and urban resilience has become a key issue in the post-urbanization period. From the perspective of regional overall and coordinated development, we constructed an evaluation index system of land development intensity and urban resilience. Then, the comprehensive evaluation model, coupling coordination degree model and panel Tobit regression model were adopted to systematically study the temporal and spatial differentiation of and influencing factors on the coupling coordination degree between land development intensity and urban resilience in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration from 2009 to 2019. The results show that from 2009 to 2019, the land development intensity exhibited a slow and fluctuating increase, while the urban resilience displayed continuous growth, and the level of land development intensity generally lagged behind that of urban resilience. From 2009 to 2019, the average coupling coordination degree between land development intensity and urban resilience in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration increased from 0.5177 to 0.6626, which generally changed from bare coordination to moderate coordination. In terms of spatial distribution, the coastal cities and cities along the Yangtze River were characterized by high coupling coordination degrees, which formed a “T” shape distribution pattern. In addition, the coupling coordination types showed certain spatio-temporal heterogeneity among cities. Finally, land economic benefit, green industrial development, scientific and technological innovation, social management and infrastructure all had significant impacts on the coupling and coordination between land development intensity and urban resilience in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration.

An evaluative model for assessing pandemic resilience at the neighborhood level: The case of Tehran

The spread of the COVID-19 virus, which has caused abundant mortalities in human settlements, has drawn the attention of urban planners and policy-makers to the necessity of improving resilience to future pandemics. In this study, a set of indicators related to pandemic resilience were identified and used to develop a composite multi-dimensional pandemic resilience index for Tehran's neighborhoods. The physical, infrastructural, socio-economic, and environmental dimensions of pandemic resilience were defined considering the conditions of 351 neighborhoods through the exploratory factor analysis method. Accordingly, the pandemic resilience (PR) score of the neighborhoods was calculated. Furthermore, the Pearson correlation analysis was used to validate the PR scores by examining the correlation between the neighborhood PR scores and the number of confirmed cases. For this purpose, we used a sample consisting of 43,000 confirmed COVID-19 patients in the first five months of its spread. The test shows a statistically significant negative correlation between neighborhoods' resilience score and the cumulative number of confirmed patients in the neighborhoods (r= -.456, P<0.001). This study also tries to develop a new model to better understand health determinants of pandemic resilience. The proposed model can inform planners and policymakers to take appropriate measures to create more pandemic-resilient urban neighborhoods.

Establishment of epidemic early warning index system and optimization of infectious disease model: Analysis on monitoring data of public health emergencies

The ability to mitigate the damages caused by emergencies is an important symbol of the modernization of an emergency capability. When responding to emergencies, government agencies and decision makers need more information sources to estimate the possible evolution of the disaster in a more efficient manner. In this paper, an optimization model for predicting the dynamic evolution of COVID-19 is presented by combining the propagation algorithm of system dynamics with the warning indicators. By adding new parameters and taking the country as the research object, the epidemic situation in countries such as China, Japan, Korea, the United States and the United Kingdom was simulated and predicted, the impact of prevention and control measures such as effective contact coefficient on the epidemic situation was analyzed, and the effective contact coefficient of the country was analyzed. The paper strives to provide early warning of emergencies scientifically and effectively through the combination of these two technologies, and put forward feasible references for the implementation of various countermeasures. Judging from the conclusion, this study reaffirmed the importance of responding quickly to public health emergencies and formulating prevention and control policies to reduce population exposure and prevent the spread of the pandemic.