Estimating Abortion Incidence: Assessment of a Widely Used Indirect Method

Abortion and unintended pregnancy in Pakistan: new evidence for 2023 and trends over the past decade

BACKGROUND

Despite induced abortion being highly legally restricted in Pakistan, studies in 2002 and 2012 showed that many women rely on abortion when faced with an unintended pregnancy. Following the 2012 study, concerted efforts were made to improve contraceptive services and to strengthen postabortion care. The availability and use of misoprostol also expanded in the past decade. Our primary objective was to provide new evidence on the rates of unintended pregnancy, induced abortion and postabortion care in 2023 and to assess trends in these outcomes since 2012.

METHODS

This is a cross-sectional study based on a Health Professional Survey, and a nationally representative Health Facilities Survey, conducted in 2023. A widely applied methodology is used to estimate rates of abortion and unintended pregnancy. Data sources and methods are comparable across the 2012 and 2023 studies.

RESULTS

In 2023, an estimated six million unintended pregnancies occurred and 64% of them or 3.8 (95% CI 2.2 to 6.4) million resulted in induced abortions. This corresponds to an annual unintended pregnancy rate of 100 and an induced abortion rate of 66 (95% CI 38 to 111) per 1000 women aged 15-49. There was no significant change in the unintended pregnancy rate, but the abortion rate increased by 25% between 2012 and 2023. In 2023, 697 913 women were treated for postabortion complications, corresponding to an annual rate of 12.1 (95% CI 6.4 to 16.5) per 1000 women ages 15-49. This treatment rate declined by 16% between 2012 and 2023.

CONCLUSIONS

The unintended pregnancy rate has remained stable in the past decade. However, Pakistani women are increasingly relying on abortion to resolve unintended pregnancy. The treatment rate of postabortion complications has declined, owing largely to widespread access to misoprostol. This transformation of the abortion landscape calls for concerted efforts to increase contraceptive use and strengthen postabortion care.

A global scoping review of the circumstances of care seeking for abortion later in pregnancy

Understanding the circumstances of abortions later in pregnancy provides insight about the barriers and delays to timely care. Limited synthesized information is available on these circumstances, especially from low and middle incomes countries. Reviewing what is reported in the literature about the circumstances of abortion later in pregnancy and the methodological approaches used to study this is needed to reveal evidence gaps. The purpose of this study is to describe what is documented and methodological approaches used in existing literature on the circumstances and characteristics associated with seeking care for abortion later in pregnancy reported in population and facility-based studies. We conducted a scoping review of peer-reviewed research in OVID/PubMed, Embase, Scopus, SocIndex, and LILACs from 2007-2024 that described the circumstance, sociodemographic characteristics, population- or facility-based proportion of abortion later in pregnancy (≥12 weeks of gestation or "second trimester") reported in the literature. We screened 2598 records by title and/or abstract and 668 of those by full text. We included 78 studies that described the circumstances around seeking care for abortion later in pregnancy from qualitative data (12 studies); included information on associated characteristics from quantitative data (15 studies); reported a population- (17 studies) or facility-based (45 studies) proportion of abortion later in pregnancy. Prominent themes included health system challenges, late pregnancy recognition, financial challenges, and delayed decision making. Low economic status and adolescence were commonly associated characteristics. Population and facility-based studies lacked standardization when reporting durations of gestation. Facility studies reported a wide variety of populations and number of facilities. Circumstances surrounding abortions later in pregnancy include health system challenges, late pregnancy recognition, financial issues, and delayed decision-making, which intersect to compound and extend delays. More research guided by clear methods and standard definitions when reporting on population and facility-based proportions of abortions later in pregnancy is needed to reveal evidence gaps and better inform policies and programs.

Unintended pregnancy, induced abortion and abortion care-seeking experiences among adolescents in Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of Congo: a cross-sectional study

OBJECTIVES

To estimate age-specific abortion incidence and unintended pregnancy in Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of Congo and compare care experiences between adolescents (15-19 years) and older women (20-49 years).

DESIGN

We used the age-specific variant of the Abortion Incidence Complications Method to estimate abortion and unintended pregnancy, with data from three primary sources: Health Facility Survey (n=361) provided postabortion care (PAC) caseloads; Prospective Morbidity Survey (n=1031) provided the age distribution and characteristics of women presenting for PAC and Health Professional Survey (n=115) provided an estimate of the proportion of abortions resulting in facility-based treatment of complications. Bivariate (χ², t-test) and multivariable (binary logistic regression, Cox proportional hazard) analyses were used to compare abortion care experiences.

SETTING

Health facilities proving PAC in Kinshasa.

PARTICIPANTS

Women who presented to PAC facilities with abortion complications and their care providers.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

The primary measures were abortion incidence and proportion of pregnancies unintended. The secondary measures were the odd of reporting specific abortion care experiences.

RESULTS

Adolescents had an estimated 27 590 induced abortions, constituting 18.8% of abortions in Kinshasa in 2016. Adolescents had the lowest abortion rate among women less than 35 years (55.2/1000 women) but the highest rate among ever sexually active women (138.4/1000) and recently sexually active women (167.2/1000). Also, adolescents had the highest abortion ratio (82.4/100 live births), proportion of pregnancies unintended (80%) and proportion of unintended pregnancies ending in abortion (49%). Compared with older women, adolescents had higher odds of reporting pregnancy unintendedness (adjusted OR, AOR 1.36, 95% CI 1.75 to 2.24), seeking abortion at later than first trimester (AOR 1.34, 95% CI 1.09 to 1.63) and from non-medical professionals (AOR 1.68, 95% CI 1.31 to 2.14), and not using contraceptives before pregnancy (AOR 2.23, 95% CI 2.77 to 3.43) or postabortion (AOR 2.46, 95% CI 1.87 to 3.29).

CONCLUSIONS

Interventions are needed to reduce unintended pregnancy among adolescents in Kinshasa and improve their abortion care experiences.

Abortion Care Beyond 13 Weeks' Gestation: A Global Perspective

The majority of abortions are performed early in pregnancy, but later abortion accounts for a large proportion of abortion-related morbidity and mortality. People who need this care are often the most vulnerable-the poor, the young, those who experience violence, and those with significant health issues. In settings with access to safe care, studies demonstrate significant declines in abortion-related morbidity and mortality. This review focuses on evidence-based practices for induced abortion beyond 13 weeks' gestation and post-abortion care in both high- and low-resource settings. We also highlight key programmatic issues to consider when expanding the gestational age for abortion services.

Impact of abortion law reforms on health services and health outcomes in low- and middle-income countries: a systematic review

While restrictive abortion laws still prevail in most low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), many countries have reformed their abortion laws, expanding the grounds on which abortion can be performed legally. However, the implications of these reforms on women's access to and use of health services, as well as their health outcomes, are uncertain. This systematic review aimed to evaluate and synthesize empirical research evidence concerning the effects of abortion law reforms on women's health services and health outcomes in LMICs. We searched Medline, Embase, CINAHL and Web of Science databases, as well as grey literature and reference lists of included studies. We included pre-post and quasi-experimental studies that aimed to estimate the causal effect of a change in abortion law on at least one of four outcomes: (1) use of and access to abortion services, (2) fertility rates, (3) maternal and/or neonatal morbidity and mortality and (4) contraceptive use. We assessed the quality of studies using the quasi-experimental study design series checklist and synthesized evidence through a narrative description. Of the 2796 records identified by our search, we included 13 studies in the review, which covered reforms occurring in Uruguay, Ethiopia, Mexico, Nepal, Chile, Romania, India and Ghana. Studies employed pre-post, interrupted time series, difference-in-differences and synthetic control designs. Legislative reforms from highly restrictive to relatively liberal were associated with reductions in fertility, particularly among women from 20 to 34 years of age, as well as lower maternal mortality. Evidence regarding the impact of abortion reforms on other outcomes, as well as whether effects vary by socioeconomic status, is limited. Further research is required to strengthen the evidence base for informing abortion legislation in LMICs. This review explicitly points to the need for rigorous quasi-experimental studies with sensitivity analyses to assess underlying assumptions. The systematic review was registered in PROSPERO database CRD42019126927.

Reducing underreporting of abortion in surveys: Results from two test applications of the list experiment method in Malawi and Senegal

BACKGROUND

Accurately measuring abortion incidence poses many challenges. The list experiment is a method designed to increase the reporting of sensitive or stigmatized behaviors in surveys, but has only recently been applied to the measurement of abortion. To further test the utility of the list experiment for measuring abortion incidence, we conducted list experiments in two countries, over two time periods.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The list experiment is an indirect method of measuring sensitive experiences that protects respondent confidentiality by hiding individual responses to a binary sensitive item (i.e., abortion) by combining this response with answers to other non-sensitive binary control items. Respondents report the number of list items that apply to them, not which ones. We conducted a list experiment to measure cumulative lifetime incidence of abortion in Malawi, and separately to measure cumulative five-year incidence of abortion in Senegal, among cisgender women of reproductive age.

RESULTS

Among 810 eligible respondents in Malawi, list experiment results estimated a cumulative lifetime incidence of abortion of 0.9% (95%CI: 0.0, 7.6). Among 1016 eligible respondents in Senegal, list experiment estimates indicated a cumulative five-year incidence of abortion of 2.8% (95%CI: 0.0, 10.4) which, while lower than anticipated, is seven times the proportion estimated from a direct question on abortion (0.4%).

CONCLUSIONS

Two test applications of the list experiment to measure abortion experiences in Malawi and Senegal likely underestimated abortion incidence. Future efforts should include context-specific formative qualitative research for the development and selection of list items, enumerator training, and method delivery to assess if and how these changes can improve method performance.

Prevalence of Self-Managed Abortion Among Women of Reproductive Age in the United States

IMPORTANCE

Increasing evidence indicates that people are attempting their own abortions outside the formal health care system. However, population-based estimates of experience with self-managed abortion (SMA) are lacking.

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the prevalence of SMA attempts among the general US population.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This cross-sectional survey study was fielded August 2 to 17, 2017 among English- and Spanish- speaking, self-identified female panel members from the GfK web-based KnowledgePanel. Women ages 18 to 49 years were approached to complete a 1-time survey. Data were analyzed from September 22, 2017, to March 26, 2020.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

SMA was defined as "some women may do something on their own to try to end a pregnancy without medical assistance. For example, they may get information from the internet, a friend, or family member about pills, medicine, or herbs they can take on their own, or they may do something else to try to end the pregnancy." SMA was assessed using the question, "Have you ever taken or used something on your own, without medical assistance, to try to end an unwanted pregnancy?" Participants reporting SMA were asked about methods used, reasons, and outcomes. Factors associated with SMA experience, including age, race/ethnicity, socioeconomic status, nativity, reproductive health history, and geography, were assessed. Projected lifetime SMA prevalence was estimated using discrete-time event history models, adjusting for abortion underreporting.

RESULTS

Among 14 151 participants invited to participate, 7022 women (49.6%) (mean [SE] age, 33.9 [9.0] years) agreed to participate. Among these, 57.4% (95% CI, 55.8%-59.0%) were non-Hispanic White, 20.2% (95% CI, 18.9%-21.5%) were Hispanic, and 13.3% (95% CI, 12.1%-14.5%) were non-Hispanic Black; and 15.1% (95% CI, 14.1%-16.3%) reported living at less than 100% federal poverty level (FPL). A total of 1.4% (95% CI, 1.0%-1.8%) of participants reported a history of attempting SMA while in the US. Projected lifetime prevalence of SMA adjusting for underreporting of abortion was 7.0% (95% CI, 5.5%-8.4%). In bivariable analyses, non-Hispanic Black (prevalence ratio [PR], 3.16; 95% CI, 1.48-6.75) and Hispanic women surveyed in English (PR, 3.74; 95% CI, 1.78-7.87) were more likely than non-Hispanic White women to have attempted SMA. Women living below 100% of the FPL were also more likely to have attempted SMA compared with those at 200% FPL or greater (PR, 3.43; 95% CI, 1.83-6.42). At most recent SMA attempt, 20.0% (95% CI, 10.9%-33.8%) of respondents used misoprostol, 29.2% (95% CI, 17.5%-44.5%) used another medication or drug, 38.4% (95% CI, 25.3%-53.4%) used herbs, and 19.8% (95% CI, 10.0%-35.5%) used physical methods. The most common reasons for SMA included that it seemed faster or easier (47.2% [95% CI, 33.0%-61.8%]) and the clinic was too expensive (25.2% [95% CI, 15.7%-37.7%]). Of all attempts, 27.8% (95% CI, 16.6%-42.7%) of respondents reported they were successful; the remainder reported they had subsequent facility-based abortions (33.6% [95% CI, 21.0%-49.0%]), continued the pregnancy (13.4% [95% CI, 7.4%-23.1%]), had a miscarriage (11.4% [95% CI, 4.2%-27.5%]), or were unsure (13.3% [95% CI, 6.8%-24.7%]). A total of 11.0% (95% CI, 5.5%-21.0%) of respondents reported a complication.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

This cross-sectional study found that approximately 7% of US women reported having attempted SMA in their lifetime, commonly with ineffective methods. These findings suggest that surveys of SMA experience among patients at abortion clinics may capture only one-third of SMA attempts. People's reasons for attempting SMA indicate that as abortion becomes more restricted, SMA may become more common.

Abortions followed by contraceptive failures in Northern India: an analysis of contraceptive histories (2009–2014)

This study tries to elicit the unexplored nexus between the contraceptive failure and abortions in India’s most populous state Uttar Pradesh. Condom being the most used modern method contributes to 47% of all observed episodes in the calendar period. Of all accidental pregnancies occurred because of modern contraceptive failures, 35.2% terminated with induced abortions. Gross failure rate of modern methods is conspicuously higher for urban poor, uneducated women, and marginalized section of population living in urban area. From a total of 7496 episodes of all reversible methods, abortions are estimated as high as 29.2%, whereas for the traditional method it accounts for around 21%. The empirical evidence of induced abortions due to contraceptive failure put serious concern regarding unintended pregnancies and hence discourages fertility intentions among the potential couples.

Estimating the incidence of abortion: using the Abortion Incidence Complications Methodology in Ghana, 2017

Introduction

Induced abortion is legally permitted in Ghana under specific conditions, but access to services that meet guidelines approved by government is limited. As part of a larger project comparing five methodologies to estimate abortion incidence, we implemented an indirect estimation approach: the Abortion Incidence Complications Methodology (AICM), to understand the incidence of abortion in Ghana in 2017.

Methods

We drew a nationally representative, two-stage, stratified sample of health facilities. We used information from 539 responding facilities to estimate treated complications stemming from illegal induced abortions, and to estimate the number of legal abortions provided. We used information from 146 knowledgeable informants to generate zonal multipliers representing the inverse of the proportion of illegal induced abortions treated for complications in facilities in Ghana’s three ecological zones. We applied multipliers to estimates of treated complications from illegal abortions, and added legal abortions to obtain an annual estimate of all induced abortions.

Results

The AICM approach suggests that approximately 200 000 abortions occurred in Ghana in 2017, corresponding to a national abortion rate of 26.8 (95% CI 21.7 to 31.9) per 1000 women 15–49. Abortion rates were lowest in the Northern zone (18.6) and highest in the Middle zone (30.4). Of all abortions, 71% were illegal.

Conclusion

Despite Ghana’s relatively liberal abortion law and efforts to expand access to safe abortion services, illegal induced abortion appears common. A concurrently published paper compares the AICM-derived estimates presented in this paper to those from other methodological approaches.

Estimating the incidence of abortion: a comparison of five approaches in Ghana

Introduction

Induced abortion estimates are critical for reproductive health programming. In countries like Ghana where abortion is somewhat legally restricted and highly stigmatised, official records are incomplete and different approaches are needed to measure abortion incidence. We conducted a study in Ghana to test five methodologies for estimating incidence: direct reporting, the list experiment, the confidante method, the Abortion Incidence Complications Method (AICM) and a modified AICM.

Methods

The direct reporting, list experiment and confidante method were implemented through a nationally representative community-based survey (CBS) of 4722 women. The AICM used data from a nationally representative health facilities survey (HFS) and a knowledgeable informant survey. The modified AICM combined CBS and HFS data. For each approach, we calculated abortion incidence nationally and for Ghana’s three ecological zones and conducted checks to determine the most internally valid approaches.

Results

National incidence estimates ranged from 27 per 1000 (AICM) to 61 (confidante method). The Northern zone displayed lower rates than the other two zones for all approaches. Validity and reliability checks found that the list experiment was invalid. The approaches that stood up to the internal validity checks and were most reliable were the direct reporting, confidante method and modified AICM. These approaches provide lower and upper bound estimates for the abortion rate, and the mean of the estimates from the three approaches yields a final abortion rate of 44 per 1000 and an unintended pregnancy rate of 103 per 1000.

Conclusions

Comparing five approaches to estimating abortion enabled cross-validation of findings and highlighted strengths, pitfalls and requirements of each approach that can inform abortion estimation in other settings.

The prevalence and the reasons of issuing permission for therapeutic abortion in department of forensic medicine, Kermanshah, Iran, during 2005 to 2010

Objective

The present study aimed to investigate the prevalence and the reasons of issuing permission for therapeutic abortion in department of forensic medicine, Kermanshah-Iran.

Results

There were a total number of 428 applications for issuing permits. The most common reasons of issuing permit for therapeutic abortion were fetal and maternal problems, specifically cerebral abnormalities (70.8%), and anencephaly (30.3%). Furthermore, 354 (82/7%) out of 428 applications were able to get the legal permit and 17.3% of the applications did not receive permission, which was mainly due to “the lack of maternal indication”. Increased knowledge of physicians and clinical personnel on indications of therapeutic abortions and related regulations would lead to the implementation of strategies which prevent void referrals to the department of forensic medicine and a better execution of therapeutic abortion law. By improving the health condition of pregnant women who seek pregnancy termination, informing them about indications of therapeutic abortions, and developing proper strategies to make pregnant women more acquainted with legal cases of abortion, we can take a significant step towards helping pregnant women and promoting their health.