Long-term Consequences of Criminal Justice System Intervention: The Impact of Young Adult Arrest on Midlife Health Behaviors

Trends in police complaints and arrests on New York City subways, 2018 to 2023: an interrupted time-series analysis

BACKGROUND

Public transportation use is influenced by perceptions of safety. Concerns related to crime on New York City (NYC) transit have risen following NYC's COVID-19 pandemic state of emergency declaration in 2020, leading to declines in subway ridership. In response, the most recent mayoral administration implemented a Subway Safety Plan in 2022. This study aimed to quantify the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Subway Safety Plan on rates of complaints to and arrests by the New York City Police Department (NYPD) Transit Bureau.

METHODS

Using publicly available data on complaints and arrests, we conducted interrupted time-series analyses using autoregressive integrated moving average models applied to monthly data for the period from September 2018 to August 2023. We estimated changes in the rates of complaints to and arrests by the NYPD Transit Bureau before and after: (1) the COVID-19 pandemic state of emergency declaration (i.e., March 2020), and (2) the announcement of the Subway Safety Plan (i.e., February 2022). We also examined trends by complaint and arrest type as well as changes in proportion of arrests by demographic and geographic groups.

RESULTS

After the COVID-19 pandemic declaration, there was an 84% increase (i.e., an absolute increase of 6.07 per 1,000,000 riders, CI 1.42, 10.71) in complaints to the NYPD Transit Bureau, including a 99% increase (0.91 per 1,000,000 riders, CI 0.42, 1.41) in complaints for assault and a 125% increase in complaints for harassment (0.94 per 1,000,000 riders, CI 0.29, 1.60). Following the Subway Safety Plan there was an increase in the rate of arrests for harassment (0.004 per 1,000,000 riders, CI 0.001, 0.007), as well as decreases in the proportion of arrests for individuals racialized as White (- 0.02, CI - 0.04, - 0.01) and proportion of arrests in the borough of Manhattan (- 0.13, CI - 0.17, - 0.09).

CONCLUSIONS

The increased rates of complaints to the NYPD Transit Bureau following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic remained elevated following the enactment of the Subway Safety Plan. Further evaluation efforts can help identify effective means of promoting safety on public transportation.

Variation by race/ethnicity-gender in the relationship between arrest history and alcohol use

BACKGROUND

Alcohol use contributes to the national burden of morbidity and mortality in the United States. Arrest, as a unique form of criminal justice system involvement, may be related to alcohol use from adolescence to adulthood. This study investigates the relationship between arrest and alcohol use across race/ethnicity-gender (R/E-G) status (e.g., Black, Latinx, and White men and women) as youth age.

METHODS

Data from 17 waves (1997-2015) of the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, 1997 cohort (N = 8901) were used to explore how variation in R/E-G moderates the relationship between arrest history and alcohol use trajectories from 13 to 30 years old. Multilevel zero-inflated Poisson and Poisson regression were used to assess R/E-G variation in the relationship between arrest history and days of alcohol consumption, drinks per drinking occasion, and days of binge drinking after accounting for covariates, including incarceration.

RESULTS

The findings indicate that an arrest history is associated with alcohol use, and these results varied by R/E-G status, age, and alcohol use outcome. Those with an arrest history reported more days of drinking than their counterparts without an arrest; yet, the magnitude and direction of average drinks per occasion and binge drinking days varied by R/E-G status and age. Paradoxically, Black men, Black women, and Latinx men with an arrest history reported fewer days of binge drinking as they aged than their counterparts without an arrest.

CONCLUSIONS

A history of arrest is important for alcohol use from adolescence to adulthood and varies by R/E-G status, age, and alcohol use outcome. This work confirms previous scholarship showing that arrest and alcohol use are socially patterned and R/E-G status is an essential consideration in understanding the relationship. Future work should include additional identities and health behaviors and the consequences related to alcohol use outcomes.

Cohort Profile: The Woodlawn Study

The Woodlawn Study is an epidemiologically- defined community cohort study of 1242 Black Americans (51% female and 49% male), who were in first grade in 1966-67 in Woodlawn, a neighborhood of Chicago, Illinois. The study comprises extensive interview data over the life course including self-, mother-, and/or teacher-reported assessments at ages 6, 16, 32, 42, and 62 (in progress), administrative records (i.e., education, crime, and death records), and census data. These data cover a wide range of focal areas across the life course, including family environment, socioeconomic indicators, education, social integration (e.g., marriage, community engagement, religious involvement) and social support, employment, racial discrimination, substance use, crime/victimization, and mental and physical health, including mortality. Over the past 50 years, Woodlawn research has mapped cumulative disadvantage, substance use, and criminal offending and has identified key risk and protective factors of adversity, resilience, and success across the full life course. In turn, these findings have informed life course theory and policy for a population that experiences significant criminal and health disparities.

Offending and the Long-Term Risk of Death: An Examination of Mid-Life Mortality Among an Urban Black American Cohort

Research on the long-term relationship between offending and mortality is limited, especially among minorities who have higher risk of premature mortality and criminal offending, particularly arrest. Using Cox proportional hazard models, we estimate the relationship between young adult offending and later mortality (to age 58) among a community cohort of Black Americans (n = 1,182). After controlling for a wide range of covariates, results indicate that violent offenders are at heightened risk of mortality from young adulthood through midlife compared with both non-violent only offenders and non-offenders. Further analysis shows that this result is driven by the frequent, largely non-violent, arrests incurred among violent offenders. Criminal justice reform and collaboration with public health practitioners might be fruitful avenues to reduce mortality disparities.