Identifying ‘associated-sleeping-beauties’ in ‘swan-groups’ based on small qualified datasets of physics and economics

Identifying grey-rhino in eminent technologies via patent analysis

Purpose

Following the typical features of the grey-rhino event as predictability and profound influence, we attempt to find a special pattern called the grey-rhino in eminent technologies via patent analysis.

Design/methodology/approach

We propose to combine triadic patent families and technology life cycle to define the grey-rhino model. Firstly, we design the indicator rhino-index Rh = ST/SP and descriptor sequence {Rh}, where ST and SP are the accumulative number of triadic patent families and all patent families respectively for a specific technology. Secondly, according to the two typical features of the grey-rhino event, a grey-rhino is defined as a technology that meets both qualitative and quantitative conditions. Qualitatively, this technology has a profound influence. Quantitatively, in the emerging stage, Rh ≥ Rae, where Rae is the average level of the proportion of triadic patent families. Finally, this model is verified in three datasets, namely Encyclopedia Britannica's list for the greatest inventions (EB technologies for short), MIT breakthrough technologies (MIT technologies) and Derwent Manual Code technologies (MAN technologies).

Findings

The result shows that there are 64.71% EB technologies and 50.00% MIT technologies meeting the quantitative standard of the grey-rhino model, but only 14.71% MAN technologies fit the quantitative standard. This falling trend indicates the quantitative standard of the grey-rhino model is reasonable. EB technologies and MIT technologies have profound influence on society, which means they satisfy the qualitative standard of the grey-rhino model. Hence, 64.71% EB technologies and 50.00% MIT technologies are grey-rhinos. In 14.71% MAN technologies meeting the quantitative standard, we make some qualitative judgments and deem U11-A01A, U12-A01A1A, and W01-A01A as grey-rhino technologies. In addition, grey-rhinos and non-grey-rhinos have some differences. Rh values of grey-rhinos have a downward trend, while Rh values of non-grey-rhinos have a contrary trend. Rh values of grey-rhinos are scattered relatively in the early stage and centralize gradually, but non-grey-rhinos do not have this feature.

Research limitations

There are four main limitations. First, if a technology satisfies the quantitative standard of the model, it is likely to be a grey-rhino but expert judgments are necessary. Second, we don't know why it will be eminent, which involves technical contents. Thirdly, we did not consider the China National Intellectual Property Administration (CNIPA) and the German Patent and Trademark Office (DPMA) which also play important roles in worldwide patents, so we hope to expand our study to the CNIPA and the DPMA. Furthermore, we did not compare the rhino-index with other patent indicators.

Practical implications

If a technology meets the quantitative standard, this can be seen as early warning signals and the technology may become a grey-rhino in the future, which can catch people's attention in the emerging stage and make people seize the technical opportunity early.

Originality/value

We define and verify a new pattern called the grey-rhino model in eminent technologies.

Critical factors in awakening the slumbering collections: a study based on XGBoost

Purpose

The purpose is to explore the essential reasons for the differences between book awakening phenomena, to develop the critical factors in awakening the slumbering collections and to provide a reliable basis for maximizing book value and optimizing collection allocation.

Design/methodology/approach

The research employs the integrated learning algorithm XGBoost to measure driving factors. In the process of book circulation, the characteristics of collections and readers are worthy of attention. Therefore, this study also carries out feature selection and model construction from the two dimensions of books and readers.

Findings

The results show that reader features have a stronger impetus for the collection awakening phenomenon than collection features. Among reader features, education level, gender and major subject are the main factors, which are followed closely by the activity level; among collection features, publication date and price are the main driving factors. The indicators of book popularity are not significant, whose effect on the phenomenon of collection awakening is almost negligible.

Originality/value

This study aims to augment the theory of zero circulation from the theoretical level and, for the first time, seeks to define the phenomenon of collection awakening. This study attempts to present novel ideas for research in the field of libraries and to provide references for optimizing collection and maximizing the value of books.

Sleeping beauties gain impact in overdrive mode

In this study we focus on characteristics of SBs that have not or hardly been investigated previously. We find that the choice of the awakening period in the selection of SBs has consequences for the measured citation patterns. Focusing on medical SBs we analyze patterns in the time-development of the citation impact of SBs; the influence of self-citations on the awakening process; and the occurrence of medical research fields to which the SBs and their citing papers belong. An important finding is that SBs are generally characterized by a sleep that becomes less and less deep instead of a permanent deep sleep. The sleeping period is followed by a phase-transition-like jump as a start of the awakening period and a remarkable regularity is found for the citation impact immediately before and after the jump.

Sleeping Beauties of Coronavirus Research

A "Sleeping Beauty" (SB) in science is a metaphor for a scholarly publication that remains relatively unnoticed by the related communities for a long time; - the publication is "sleeping". However, suddenly due to the appearance of some phenomenon, such a "forgotten" publication may become a center of scientific attention; - the SB is "awakened". Currently, there are specific scientific areas for which sleeping beauties (SBs) are awakened. For example, as the world is experiencing the COVID-19 global pandemic (triggered by SARS-CoV-2), publications on coronaviruses appear to be awakened. Thus, one can raise questions of scientific interest: are these publications coronavirus related SBs? Moreover, while much literature exists on other coronaviruses, there seems to be no comprehensive investigation on COVID-19, - in particular in the context of SBs. Nowadays, such SB papers can be even used for sustaining literature reviews and/or scientific claims about COVID-19. In our study, in order to pinpoint pertinent SBs, we use the "beauty score" (B-score) measure. The Activity Index (AI) and the Relative Specialization Index (RSI) are also calculated to compare countries where such SBs appear. Results show that most of these SBs were published previously to the present epidemic time (triggered by SARS-CoV or SARS-CoV-1), and are awakened in 2020. Besides outlining the most important SBs, we show from what countries and institutions they originate, and the most prolific author(s) of such SBs. The citation trend of SBs that have the highest B-score is also discussed.