Sources of uncertainty in the quantification of genetically modified oilseed rape contamination in seed lots

Ex-post assessment of genetically modified, low level presence in Canadian flax

Canada is the world's largest producer and exporter of flaxseed. In 2009, DNA from deregistered genetically modified (GM) CDC Triffid was detected in a shipment of Canadian flaxseed exported to Europe, causing a large decrease in the amount of flax planted in Canada and a major shift in export markets. The flax industry in Canada undertook major changes to ensure the removal of transgenic flax from the supply chain. To demonstrate compliance, Canada adopted a protocol involving testing grain samples (post-harvest) using an RT-PCR test for the construct found in CDC Triffid. Efforts to remove the presence of GM flax from the value chain included reconstituting major flax varieties from GM-free plants. The reconstituted varieties represented the majority of planting seed in 2014. This study re-evaluates GM flax presence in Canadian grain stocks for an updated dataset (2009-2015) using a previously described simulation model to estimate low-level GM presence. Additionally, losses to the Canadian economy resulting from the reduction in flax production and export opportunities, costs associated with reconstituting major flax varieties, and testing for the presence of GM flax along the flax value chain are estimated.

Heterogeneity in the distribution of genetically modified and conventional oilseed rape within fields and seed lots

The implementation of co-existence in the commercialisation of GM crops requires GM and non-GM products to be segregated in production and supply. However, maintaining segregation in oilseed rape will be made difficult by the highly persistent nature of this species. An understanding of its population dynamics is needed to predict persistence and develop potential strategies for control, while to ensure segregation is being achieved, the production of GM oilseed rape must be accompanied by the monitoring of GM levels in crop or seed populations. Heterogeneity in the spatial distribution of oilseed rape has the potential to affect both control and monitoring and, although a universal phenomenon in arable weeds and harvested seed lots, spatial heterogeneity in oilseed rape populations remains to be demonstrated and quantified. Here we investigate the distribution of crop and volunteer populations in a commercial field before and during the cultivation of the first conventional oilseed rape (winter) crop since the cultivation of a GM glufosinate-tolerant oilseed rape crop (spring) three years previously. GM presence was detected by ELISA for the PAT protein in each of three morphologically distinguishable phenotypes: autumn germinating crop-type plants (3% GM), autumn-germinating 'regrowths' (72% GM) and spring germinating 'small-type' plants (17% GM). Statistical models (Poisson log-normal and binomial logit-normal) were used to describe the spatial distribution of these populations at multiple spatial scales in the field and of GM presence in the harvested seed lot. Heterogeneity was a consistent feature in the distribution of GM and conventional oilseed rape. Large trends across the field (50 x 400 m) and seed lot (4 x 1.5 x 1.5 m) were observed in addition to small-scale heterogeneity, less than 20 m in the field and 20 cm in the seed lot. The heterogeneity was greater for the 'regrowth' and 'small' phenotypes, which were likely to be volunteers and included most of the GM plants detected, than for the largely non-GM 'crop' phenotype. The implications of the volunteer heterogeneity for field management and GM-sampling are discussed.

Sampling plan and test protocol for the semiquantitative detection of genetically modified canola (Brassica napus) seed in bulk canola seed

Using a statistical approach, sampling plans for the semiquantitative detection of genetically modified (GM) canola within a bulk seed sample can be developed and tailored to meet different GM thresholds, costs, and confidence limits. This is achieved by changing the number of subsamples analyzed, the number of seeds per subsample, and the percentage of positive results allowed. These sampling plans must be devised carefully, taking into account the detection capability of the analytical assay. This is particularly important in the case of InVigor (a registered trademark of Bayer CropScience) canola, for which expression levels of the introduced protein in seed are very low. Lateral flow assays and enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISA) were both investigated for their suitability as a qualitative assay using a subsampling approach. On the basis of an ELISA, several sampling plans have been devised and validated to provide at least 99% confidence that bulk seed samples containing at least 0.9% (w/w) InVigor canola will be detected. Although the term "seed" is used throughout this paper to refer to the canola, the term "seed" is to be taken to include both seed and the canola seed (grain) that is harvested by the farmer/grower.