Detecting and cleaning outliers for robust estimation of variogram models in insect count data

Spatial Distribution of Frankliniella schultzei (Thysanoptera: Thripidae) in Open-Field Yellow Melon, With Emphasis on the Role of Surrounding Vegetation as a Source of Initial Infestation

Frankliniella schultzei (Trybom) is a serious pest of melon crops and is commonly found in the main producing areas of melon in Brazil (North and Northeast regions). This pest causes significant losses, damaging plants through feeding and tospovirus vectoring. Thus, the proper management of F. schultzei is crucial to prevent economic losses, and knowledge of the within-field distribution patterns of F. schultzei can be used to improve this pest management. This study aimed to determine the within-field distribution (through semivariogram modeling and kriging interpolation) and the factors associated with F. schultzei abundance in open-field yellow melon crops. We surveyed four yellow melon fields located in Formoso do Araguaia (Tocantins state, North Brazil) for thrips abundance in various crop stages (vegetative, flowering, and fruiting) in 2015 and 2016. Twelve models were fitted and it was determined that F. schultzei counts were strongly aggregated. The median spatial dependence was 4.79 m (range 3.55 to 8.02 m). The surface maps generated by kriging depicted an edge effect in fields 3 and 4. In addition, correlation analyses indicated that air temperature and presence of surrounding cucurbits are positively associated with F. schultzei abundance in yellow melon fields. Altogether, these insights can be combined for spatially based pest management, especially when the conditions (cucurbits in the surroundings and warmer periods) are favorable to F. schultzei.