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Kakouri A, Kontos T, Grivas G, Filippis G, Korras-Carraca MB, Matsoukas C, Gkikas A, Athanasopoulou E, Speyer O, Chatzidiakos C, Gerasopoulos E. Spatiotemporal modeling of long-term PM 2.5 concentrations and population exposure in Greece, using machine learning and statistical methods. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2025; 958:178113. [PMID: 39700978 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.178113] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/20/2024] [Revised: 11/22/2024] [Accepted: 12/11/2024] [Indexed: 12/21/2024]
Abstract
The lack of high-resolution, long-term PM2.5 observations in Greece and the Eastern Mediterranean hampers the development of spatial models that are crucial for providing representative exposure estimates to health studies. This work presents a spatial modeling approach to address this gap and assess PM2.5 spatial variability for the first time on a national level in Greece, by integrating in situ observations, meteorology, emissions and satellite AOD data among others. A high-resolution (1 km2) gridded dataset of PM2.5 concentrations across Greece from 2015 to 2022 was developed, and seven statistical, machine learning, and hybrid models were evaluated under different prediction scenarios. Random Forest (RF) models demonstrated superior performance, (R2 = 0.73, MAE = 2.2 μg m-3), validated against ground-based measurements. Winter months consistently showed the highest PM2.5 levels, averaging 16.8 μg m-3, over the domain, due to residential biomass burning (BB) and limited atmospheric dispersion. Summer months had the lowest concentrations, averaging 10.3 μg m-3, while substantial decreases nationwide were observed during the 2020 COVID-19 lockdown. Population exposure analysis indicated that the entire Greek population was exposed to long-term PM2.5 concentrations exceeding the WHO air quality guideline (AQG) of 5 μg m-3. Moreover, the dataset revealed elevated PM2.5 levels across several regions of mainland Greece. Notably, 70 % to 90 % of the population experience levels exceeding 10 μg m-3 in Central and Northern regions of continental Greece like Thessaly, Central Macedonia, and Ioannina. The Ioannina region, which is severely impacted by residential BB, recorded pollution levels up to five times the WHO AQG highlighting the urgent need for targeted interventions. The high-resolution RF model's superior performance for monthly average concentrations, compared to the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) dataset, renders it a reliable tool for long-term PM2.5 assessment in Greece that can support air quality management and health studies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Anastasia Kakouri
- Department of Environment, University of the Aegean, Greece; Institute for Environmental Research & Sustainable Development, National Observatory of Athens, 11810 Athens, Greece.
| | | | - Georgios Grivas
- Institute for Environmental Research & Sustainable Development, National Observatory of Athens, 11810 Athens, Greece
| | | | - Marios-Bruno Korras-Carraca
- Laboratory of Meteorology & Climatology, Department of Physics, University of Ioannina, 45110 Ioannina, Greece; Center for the Study of Air Quality and Climate Change, Institute for Chemical Engineering Sciences, Foundation for Research and Technology Hellas, Patras, Greece
| | | | - Antonis Gkikas
- Research Centre for Atmospheric Physics and Climatology, Academy of Athens, Athens, Greece
| | - Eleni Athanasopoulou
- Institute for Environmental Research & Sustainable Development, National Observatory of Athens, 11810 Athens, Greece
| | - Orestis Speyer
- Institute for Environmental Research & Sustainable Development, National Observatory of Athens, 11810 Athens, Greece
| | - Charalampos Chatzidiakos
- Institute for Environmental Research & Sustainable Development, National Observatory of Athens, 11810 Athens, Greece
| | - Evangelos Gerasopoulos
- Institute for Environmental Research & Sustainable Development, National Observatory of Athens, 11810 Athens, Greece.
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Penezić A, Milinković A, Bakija Alempijević S, Žužul S, Frka S. Atmospheric deposition of biologically relevant trace metals in the eastern Adriatic coastal area. CHEMOSPHERE 2021; 283:131178. [PMID: 34153912 DOI: 10.1016/j.chemosphere.2021.131178] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/18/2021] [Revised: 06/01/2021] [Accepted: 06/07/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
Aerosol (PM10), bulk deposition, sea surface microlayer (SML) and underlying water (ULW) samples were collected simultaneously during a field campaign at the middle Adriatic coastal site between February and July 2019, to assess the impact of atmospheric deposition (AD) of biologically relevant trace metals (TM) (Zn, Cu, Co, Ni, Cd and Pb) on the sea surface responses in an oligotrophic coastal region. Anthropogenic emissions from continental Europe, alongside local/regional domestic heating, likely affected the concentrations of Zn, Cd and Pb in aerosols during winter-early spring, while traffic emissions during the tourist season impacted Ni, Co and Cu aerosol concentrations. Additionally, open-fire biomass burning (BB) episodes caused considerable TM concentration increases, while Saharan dust intrusion in spring led to a 10-fold increase in Co concentrations in PM10 samples. These intensive episodes significantly affected the bulk deposition fluxes of TMs, showing that a small number of such extreme events, common to Mediterranean coastal areas, could be responsible for most of the AD. Enrichments and concentrations of total TMs in SML samples collected following BB events indicated that such events, along with high precipitation, influenced TM partitioning in surface water layers. We estimated that AD represents a significant source of TM to the shallow middle Adriatic coastal area, highlighting the need to further explore the atmosphere-sea surface links, to expand our understanding of the biogeochemistry of these important micronutrients and pollutants, including their impact on the aquatic community.
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Affiliation(s)
- Abra Penezić
- Division for Marine and Environmental Research, Ruđer Bošković Institute, Zagreb, Croatia.
| | - Andrea Milinković
- Division for Marine and Environmental Research, Ruđer Bošković Institute, Zagreb, Croatia
| | | | - Silva Žužul
- Institute for Medical Research and Occupational Health, Zagreb, Croatia
| | - Sanja Frka
- Division for Marine and Environmental Research, Ruđer Bošković Institute, Zagreb, Croatia.
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Contribution of Volcanic and Fumarolic Emission to the Aerosol in Marine Atmosphere in the Central Mediterranean Sea: Results from Med-Oceanor 2017 Cruise Campaign. ATMOSPHERE 2020. [DOI: 10.3390/atmos11020149] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
This work studied the contribution of the geogenic sources volcanoes and fumaroles to the aerosol in marine atmosphere in the central Mediterranean basin. For this purpose, in the framework of the Med-Oceanor measurement program, we carried out a cruise campaign in the summer of 2017 to investigate the impact to the aerosol of the most important Mediterranean volcanoes (Mount Etna, Stromboli Island, and Marsili Seamount) and solfatara areas (Phlegraean Fields complex, Volcano Islands, Ischia Island, and Panarea submarine fumarole). We collected PM10 and PM2.5 samples in 12 sites and performed chemical characterization to gather information about the concentration of major and trace elements, elemental carbon (EC), organic carbon (OC), and ionic species. The use of triangular plots and the calculation of enrichment factors confirmed the interception of volcanic plume. We integrated the outcomes from chemical characterization with the use of factor analysis and SEM/EDX analysis for the source apportionment. Anthropogenic and natural sources including shipping emissions, volcanic and fumarolic load, as well as sea spray were identified as the main factors affecting aerosol levels in the study area. Furthermore, we performed pattern recognition analysis by stepwise linear discriminant analysis to seek differences in the composition of PM10 and PM2.5 samples according to their volcanic or solfatara origin.
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López V, Salvador P, Artíñano B, Gomez-Moreno FJ, Fernández J, Molero F. Influence of the origin of the air mass on the background levels of atmospheric particulate matter and secondary inorganic compounds in the Madrid air basin. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH INTERNATIONAL 2019; 26:30426-30443. [PMID: 31440972 DOI: 10.1007/s11356-019-06205-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/29/2019] [Accepted: 08/09/2019] [Indexed: 06/10/2023]
Abstract
This study has assessed the influence of the origin of air mass on levels of particulate matter (PM10) and chemical composition (SO42- and NO3-) in the air basin of Madrid. A data set of back-trajectories of air mass arriving to this area of study from 15 June 15 2009 to 8 July 2011 has been analyzed. Firstly, the cluster analysis statistical method has been used to group the back-trajectories into 5 sets according to the angle, direction, and speed of the air mass. Afterwards, the synoptic meteorological scenarios associated with each cluster were obtained and interpreted. Subsequently, an analysis was made on the influence of these clusters on the surface levels of particulate pollutants recorded in a regional background station ("El Atazar"), as well as in two urban background stations ("Casa de Campo" and "CIEMAT"). Finally, potential source areas of PM10, SO42-, and NO3- that contributed to the increase in their background levels in the Madrid air basin were detected by analyzing residence times of trajectories. Transport of mineral desert dust is probably the main cause of the increase of regional and urban background levels of PM10 in the Madrid air basin. In the case of SO42-, relatively high levels were registered, associated with air mass coming from Southern Europe and the Mediterranean Sea. In these regions, strong emissions of SO42- are produced due to industrial combustion and maritime traffic. Otherwise, relatively high levels of NO3- were registered during meteorological situations defined by a low baric gradient in the Iberian Peninsula. This meteorological pattern favors the accumulation of emissions from local and regional sources. Besides, the main urban centers of northeastern Europe and industrial areas located in the north African coast were also identified as potential source areas of NO3-. The statistical analysis of the back-trajectories by different methods and the comparison of the results obtained with observational data confirmed that numerous industrial areas in Europe and North Africa, as well as natural ones, such as deserts, had an influence on the regional and urban background levels of mass and chemical composition of particulate matter in the Madrid air basin, under the development of specific synoptic meteorological situations. Graphical abstract.
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Affiliation(s)
- Vega López
- Department of Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate, Institute of Physical Chemistry Rocasolano, CSIC, Serrano 119, 28006, Madrid, Spain.
| | - Pedro Salvador
- Department of Environment, Edf. 23. CIEMAT, Avda. Complutense 40, 28040, Madrid, Spain
| | - Begoña Artíñano
- Department of Environment, Edf. 23. CIEMAT, Avda. Complutense 40, 28040, Madrid, Spain
| | | | - Javier Fernández
- Department of Environment, Edf. 23. CIEMAT, Avda. Complutense 40, 28040, Madrid, Spain
| | - Francisco Molero
- Department of Environment, Edf. 23. CIEMAT, Avda. Complutense 40, 28040, Madrid, Spain
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Romagnoli P, Balducci C, Perilli M, Esposito G, Cecinato A. Organic molecular markers in marine aerosols over the Western Mediterranean Sea. ENVIRONMENTAL POLLUTION (BARKING, ESSEX : 1987) 2019; 248:145-158. [PMID: 30784833 DOI: 10.1016/j.envpol.2019.02.020] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/22/2018] [Revised: 01/25/2019] [Accepted: 02/06/2019] [Indexed: 06/09/2023]
Abstract
A scientific campaign was undertaken along the Western sector of the Mediterranean Sea in the summer 2015 (26th Jun to 13th Jul), with the goal of gathering information about organic contaminants affecting marine aerosol over the Italian seas and with a special focus on changes in composition due to sources. 24 PM10 atmospheric samples in total were chemically characterized, including polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), aliphatic hydrocarbons (n-alkanes) and phthalate esters. Contemporarily, regulated gaseous toxicants (i.e. ozone, nitrogen oxides and sulfur dioxide) and meteorological parameters were recorded. Samplings were carried out inshore in front of harbors (N = 7) and along the cruise, both during the vessel shipping (N = 11, transects) and at its stops offshore (N = 6). Total PAH concentrations ranged from 0.03 to 1.94 ng/m3 and raised close to harbors and coastal sites, confirming that continental sources were responsible for the strong increase of pollution levels there compared to offshore. The percent composition and diagnostic ratio rates of PAHs were different for harbors, while transects were in agreement with offshore stops, possibly due to the different impact of pollution sources. n-Alkanes (C21C38) and the corresponding carbon preference index rates (CPI) were assessed; their values ranged 8.7-90 ng/m3 and 1.1-2.9 respectively, which suggested that fossil fuel combustion was the dominant source, though biogenic emission could contribute. Alkyl phthalates revealed wide variability in concentrations among aerosol samples. Moreover, long-range atmospheric transport and particle ageing effect induced by photo-oxidants were important factors controlling the composition of organic aerosols in the Mediterranean Sea air.
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Affiliation(s)
- Paola Romagnoli
- National Research Council of Italy, Institute of Atmospheric Pollution Research (CNR-IIA), Via Salaria km 29.3 - P.O. Box 10, I-00015, Monterotondo RM, Italy.
| | - Catia Balducci
- National Research Council of Italy, Institute of Atmospheric Pollution Research (CNR-IIA), Via Salaria km 29.3 - P.O. Box 10, I-00015, Monterotondo RM, Italy
| | - Mattia Perilli
- National Research Council of Italy, Institute of Atmospheric Pollution Research (CNR-IIA), Via Salaria km 29.3 - P.O. Box 10, I-00015, Monterotondo RM, Italy
| | - Giulio Esposito
- National Research Council of Italy, Institute of Atmospheric Pollution Research (CNR-IIA), Via Salaria km 29.3 - P.O. Box 10, I-00015, Monterotondo RM, Italy
| | - Angelo Cecinato
- National Research Council of Italy, Institute of Atmospheric Pollution Research (CNR-IIA), Via Salaria km 29.3 - P.O. Box 10, I-00015, Monterotondo RM, Italy
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Khajehpour H, Saboohi Y, Tsatsaronis G. Permissible emission limit estimation via iterative back-calculation: Case of Assaluyeh energy zone, southern Iran. INTEGRATED ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT AND MANAGEMENT 2018; 14:130-138. [PMID: 28815869 DOI: 10.1002/ieam.1970] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/29/2016] [Revised: 06/26/2017] [Accepted: 08/14/2017] [Indexed: 06/07/2023]
Abstract
In the present research work, an environmental policy procedure for setting a cap on emissions, as a crucial step in any total emission control system, has been provided and evaluated. It is shown that general regulations on emission intensities and rates do not guarantee that ambient air quality standards are met in intense industrial zones. Local emission limits are necessary to meet ambient air quality standards in these zones. To that end, we used dispersion simulators to back-calculate pollutant concentration thresholds for a large and intense energy system in the Assaluyeh region of southern Iran. Verified modeling results indicate 218 d of pollutant concentration threshold exceedance in Assaluyeh in a simulated year. Back-calculation to assess the total permissible emission level indicates the need for 68% reduction in total emission to meet ambient air quality standards. We then used the model to help identify effective control strategies, including emission reductions and appropriate timing of specific operations. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2018;14:130-138. © 2017 SETAC.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hossein Khajehpour
- Department of Energy Engineering, Sharif University of Technology, Tehran, Iran
- Sharif Energy Research Institute, Tehran, Iran
- Institute for Energy Engineering, Technical University of Berlin, Germany
| | | | - George Tsatsaronis
- Institute for Energy Engineering, Technical University of Berlin, Germany
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Nirmalkar J, Deb MK, Deshmukh DK, Tsai YI, Verma SK. Molecular markers in ambient aerosol in the Mahanadi Riverside Basin of eastern central India during winter. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH INTERNATIONAL 2015; 22:1220-1231. [PMID: 25131681 DOI: 10.1007/s11356-014-3416-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/01/2014] [Accepted: 08/05/2014] [Indexed: 06/03/2023]
Abstract
Organic molecular markers are important atmospheric constituents. Their formation and sources are important aspects of the study of urban and rural air quality. We collected PM10 aerosol samples from the Mahanadi Riverside Basin (MRB), a rural part of eastern central India, during the winter of 2011. PM10 aerosols were characterized for molecular markers using ion chromatography. The concentration of PM10 ranged from 208.8 to 588.3 μg m(-3) with a mean concentration of 388.9 μg m(-3). Total concentration of anhydrosugars, sugar alcohols, primary sugars, and oxalate were found to be 3.25, 5.60, 10.52, and 0.37 μg m(-3), respectively, during the study period. Glucose was the most abundant species followed by levoglucosan and mannitol. Significant positive correlation between the molecular markers, anhydrosugars, sugar alcohols, primary sugars, and oxalic acid confirmed that biomass burning, biogenic activity, and re-suspension of soil particles were the main sources of aerosol in the eastern central India study area.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jayant Nirmalkar
- School of Studies in Chemistry, Pt. Ravishankar Shukla University, Raipur, 492010, India
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