Geographically weighted regression model for physical, social, and economic factors affecting the COVID-19 pandemic spreading

Decoding seasonal variability of air pollutants with climate factors: A geostatistical approach using multimodal regression models for informed climate change mitigation

In response to changes in climatic patterns, a profound comprehension of air pollutants (AP) variability is vital for enhancing climate models and facilitating informed decision-making in nations susceptible to climate change. Earlier research primarily depended on limited models, potentially neglecting intricate relationships and not fully encapsulating associations. This study, in contrast, probed the spatiotemporal variability of airborne particles (CO, CH4, SO2, and NO2) under varying climatic conditions within a climate-sensitive nation, utilizing multiple regression models. Spatial and seasonal AP data were acquired via the Google Earth Engine platform, which indicated elevated AP concentrations in primarily urban areas. Remarkably, the average airborne particle levels were lower in 2020 than in 2019, though they escalated during winter. The study employed linear regression, Pearson's correlation (PC), Spearman rank correlation models, and Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) models to probe the relationship between pollutant variability and climatic elements such as rainfall, temperature, and humidity. Across all seasons, APs showed a negative correlation with rainfall while displaying positive correlations with temperature and humidity. The GWR and PC models produced the most reliable results from all the models employed, with the GWR model superseding the rest. Moreover, heightened aerosol levels were detected within a rainfall range of 600 mm/season, a temperature range of 25-30 °C, and humidity levels of 75 %-85 %. Overall, this study emphasizes the growing levels of APs in correlation with meteorological changes. By adopting a comprehensive approach and considering multiple factors, this research provides a more sophisticated understanding of the relationship between AP variability and climatic shifts.

Air pollution is associated with increased incidence-rate of head and neck cancers: A nationally representative ecological study

INTRODUCTION

Early studies show conflicting findings regarding particulate matter ≤ 2.5 μm in diameter (PM2.5) exposure and development of head and neck cancers (HNC). We analyzed the relationship between PM2.5 exposure and various types of HNC in a nationally representative ecological sample.

METHODS

We determined HNC incidence in 608 US counties from 2011 to 2019 using the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) Program from the National Cancer Institute. We also collected information on sociodemographic factors from SEER and data on smoking and alcohol intake from CDC data frames (county level). PM2.5 exposure levels were estimated using satellite and meteorological data via previously validated general additive models. Flexible semi-nonparametric regression models were used to test the relationship between PM2.5 exposure levels and HNC incidence, adjusting for demographics, socioeconomic factors, and comorbidity.

RESULTS

Increased PM2.5 exposure levels were associated with higher incidence-rates of oral cavity and pharyngeal cancers controlling for confounders in our primary analyses (IRR = 1.04, 95 % CI 1.01, 1.07, p = 0.02 per 1 μg/m3 increase in PM2.5). This relationship was maintained after adjusting for multiple testing (Holm s method, p = 0.04) and in ordinary least squares (OLS) regression (β = 0.17, 95 % CI 0.01, 0.57, p = 0.01). Increased exposure was also associated with other HNC: esophagus (IRR = 1.06, 95 % CI 1.01, 1.11, p = 0.02), lip (IRR = 1.16, 95 % CI 1.03, 1.31, p = 0.01), tonsil (IRR = 1.10, 95 % CI 1.03, 1.16, p < 0.01). However, these relationships were not maintained in secondary analyses.

CONCLUSIONS

This nationally representative ecological study shows that increased levels of air pollution are associated with increased incidence of overall oral cavity and pharyngeal cancers in the US.

Visible minority status and occupation were associated with increased COVID-19 infection in Greater Vancouver British Columbia between June and November 2020: an ecological study

Background

The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted health disparities, especially among specific population groups. This study examines the spatial relationship between the proportion of visible minorities (VM), occupation types and COVID-19 infection in the Greater Vancouver region of British Columbia, Canada.

Methods

Provincial COVID-19 case data between June 24, 2020, and November 7, 2020, were aggregated by census dissemination area and linked with sociodemographic data from the Canadian 2016 census. Bayesian spatial Poisson regression models were used to examine the association between proportion of visible minorities, occupation types and COVID-19 infection. Models were adjusted for COVID-19 testing rates and other sociodemographic factors. Relative risk (RR) and 95% Credible Intervals (95% CrI) were calculated.

Results

We found an inverse relationship between the proportion of the Chinese population and risk of COVID-19 infection (RR = 0.98 95% CrI = 0.96, 0.99), whereas an increased risk was observed for the proportions of the South Asian group (RR = 1.10, 95% CrI = 1.08, 1.12), and Other Visible Minority group (RR = 1.06, 95% CrI = 1.04, 1.08). Similarly, a higher proportion of frontline workers (RR = 1.05, 95% CrI = 1.04, 1.07) was associated with higher infection risk compared to non-frontline.

Conclusion

Despite adjustments for testing, housing, occupation, and other social economic status variables, there is still a substantial association between the proportion of visible minorities, occupation types, and the risk of acquiring COVID-19 infection in British Columbia. This ecological analysis highlights the existing disparities in the burden of diseases among different visible minority populations and occupation types.

Spatiotemporal Pattern and Its Determinants for Newly Reported HIV/AIDS Among Older Adults in Eastern China From 2004 to 2021: Retrospective Analysis Study

BACKGROUND

In recent years, the number and proportion of newly reported HIV/AIDS cases among older adults have increased dramatically. However, research on the pattern of temporal and spatial changes in newly reported HIV/AIDS among older adults remains limited.

OBJECTIVE

This study analyzed the spatial and temporal distribution of HIV/AIDS cases and its influencing factors among older adults in Eastern China from 2004 to 2021, with the goal of improving HIV/AIDS prevention and intervention.

METHODS

We extracted data on newly reported HIV/AIDS cases between 2004 and 2021 from a case-reporting system and used a Joinpoint regression model and an age-period-cohort model to analyze the temporal trends in HIV/AIDS prevalence. Spatial autocorrelation and geographically weighted regression models were used for spatial aggregation and influence factor analysis.

RESULTS

A total of 12,376 participants with HIV/AIDS were included in the study. The newly reported HIV infections among older adults increased from 0.13 cases per 100,000 people in 2004 to 7.00 cases per 100,000 people in 2021. The average annual percent change in newly reported HIV infections was 28.0% (95% CI -21.6% to 34.8%). The results of the age-period-cohort model showed that age, period, and cohort factors affected the newly reported HIV infections among older adults. The newly reported HIV/AIDS cases among men who have sex with men (MSM) had spatial clustering, and the hotspots were mainly concentrated in Hangzhou. The disposable income of urban residents, illiteracy rate among people aged 15 years or older, and number of hospital beds per 1000 residents showed a positive association with the newly reported HIV infections among older MSM in the Zhejiang province.

CONCLUSIONS

HIV/AIDS among older adults showed an increasing trend and was influenced by age, period, and cohort effects. Older MSM with HIV/AIDS showed regional clustering and was associated with factors such as the disposable income of urban residents, the illiteracy rate among people aged 15 years or older, and the number of hospital beds per 1000 people. Targeted prevention and control measures are needed to reduce HIV infection among those at higher risk.

Local and regional factors of spatial differentiation of the excess mortality related to the COVID-19 pandemic in Romania

COVID-19 revealed some major weaknesses and threats that are related to the level of territorial development. In Romania, the manifestation and the impact of the pandemic were not homogenous, which was influenced, to a large extent, by a diversity of sociodemographic, economic, and environmental/geographic factors. The paper is an exploratory analysis focused on selecting and integrating multiple indicators that could explain the spatial differentiation of COVID-19-related excess mortality (EXCMORT) in 2020 and 2021. These indicators include, among others, health infrastructure, population density and mobility, health services, education, the ageing population and distance to the closest urban center. We analyzed the data from local (LAU2) and county level (NUTS3) by applying multiple linear regression and geographically weighted regression models. The results show that mobility and lower social distancing were far more critical factors for higher mortality than the intrinsic vulnerability of the population, at least in the first two years of COVID-19. However, the highly differentiated patterns and specificities of different areas of Romania resulting from the modelling of EXCMORT factors drive to the conclusion that the decision-making approaches should be place-specific in order to have more efficiency in case of pandemics.

Lessons learned to improve COVID-19 response in communities with greatest socio-economic vulnerabilities

BACKGROUND

Vulnerable communities are susceptible to and disproportionately affected by the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. Understanding the challenges faced, perceptions, lessons learned, and recommendations of the organizations that provide services in response to COVID-19 to vulnerable communities is critical to improving emergency response and preparedness in these communities.

METHODS

This study employed GIS mapping to identify the needs and assets that exist in communities in Baltimore City, where vulnerabilities related to social determinants of health and the burden of the COVID-19 pandemic were greatest. We also conducted an online survey between September 1, 2021, and May 30, 2022, to assess the COVID-19-related services provided by local organizations, challenges faced, perceptions, lessons learned, and recommendations to inform policies, programs, and funding related to improving the COVID-19 response in underserved communities. The survey was disseminated through the online Kobo Toolbox platform to leaders and representatives of organizations in Baltimore City.

RESULTS

Based on GIS mapping analysis, we identified three communities as the most vulnerable and 522 organizations involved in the COVID-19 response across Baltimore City. 247 surveys were disseminated, and 50 survey responses were received (20.24% response rate). Out of these organizations, nearly 80% provided services in response to COVID-19 to the identified vulnerable communities. Challenges experienced ranged from funding (29%), and outreach/recruitment (26%), to not having access to updated and accurate information from local officials (32%).

CONCLUSIONS

This research highlights critical insights gained related to the experiences of vulnerable populations and suggests ways forward to address challenges faced during the emergency response by providing recommendations for policy and program changes. Furthermore, the findings will help better prepare vulnerable communities for public health emergencies and build more community resilience.