Mix-method modelling of actors' capacity for environmental sustainability and climate compatible development in energy sector

Demand side management through energy efficiency measures for the sustainable energy future of Pakistan

Pakistan is facing energy crises due to localized shortages, market manipulation, infrastructure disruption, rising demand, governance issues, climate and geopolitical events. In this situation Demand Side Management (DSM) is a promising solution to overcome the problem of energy crises. DSM strategy helps to manage consumer demand through energy conservation rather than to addition of new power capacity. In this study, Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP) develops an energy model for Pakistan for the period 2022-2050. Three scenarios has been to constructed namely Baseline (BAS), Green Energy Policy (GEP), and Energy Efficiency (ENE) to predict the future energy demand, production, carbon emissions and the investment cost which covers capital, operational and maintenance costs. The model results suggest that DSM targets should be achieved through the implementation of ENE scenario. Predicted energy production and consumption under the ENE scenario are substantially less than those under the BAS scenario. The country can meet its 635.83,000 GWh energy demand with its 747.15,000 GWh energy production. Non-renewable sources produce 171.27,000 GWh, whilst renewable sources produce 575.88,000 GWh. According to this scenario, by 2050, CO2 emissions will be produced around 93.16 million metric tons, requiring an investment cost of $46.80 billion for building new power capacity. The study provides a roadmap with a suggestive optimal balance between energy saving with DSM approach and utilizing renewable energy production to meet energy demand for different sectors of the economy.