Non-invasive diagnosis of risk in dengue patients using bioelectrical impedance analysis and artificial neural network

Dengue outbreaks prediction in Bangladesh perspective using distinct multilayer perceptron NN and decision tree

Dengue fever is a disease that has been outbreak worldwide in the last few years. Dengue is a fatal disease; sometimes, it may cause life-threatening complications and even death. Dengue is considered to be one of the critical diseases which is spreading in more than 110 countries. Nearly 45,000 case reports have been found around Bangladesh in the last year. Dengue fever has become a major health hazard in Bangladesh. Hence, early detection would mitigate major casualties of Dengue disease. Distinct studies have been performed concerning Dengue disease; however, no effective study, particularly from Bangladesh's perspective, it seemed that reveals Dengue outbreaks prediction method. In this scenario, this research work aims to analyse the Dengue disease and build an apposite model to predict dengue outbreaks. This paper also aims to find the best technique to early predicts Dengue disease. The real-time data of the patients admitted to different hospitals in Bangladesh is accumulated to achieve the goal of the current research. Then different multilayer perceptron neural networks and a Decision tree are used for Dengue outbreaks prediction. Twenty-five parameters are analysed to find these parameters' infection rates in this work. A comparative study of the developed models' performances is also accomplished to obtain a better Dengue outbreaks prediction model. The results evidence that the Levenberg-Marquardt is the best technique with 97.3% accuracy and 2.7% error in Dengue disease prediction. On the other hand, the Decision tree may have the second choice to assess Dengue disease.

Diversity in Machine Learning: A Systematic Review of Text-Based Diagnostic Applications

OBJECTIVE

 As the storage of clinical data has transitioned into electronic formats, medical informatics has become increasingly relevant in providing diagnostic aid. The purpose of this review is to evaluate machine learning models that use text data for diagnosis and to assess the diversity of the included study populations.

METHODS

 We conducted a systematic literature review on three public databases. Two authors reviewed every abstract for inclusion. Articles were included if they used or developed machine learning algorithms to aid in diagnosis. Articles focusing on imaging informatics were excluded.

RESULTS

 From 2,260 identified papers, we included 78. Of the machine learning models used, neural networks were relied upon most frequently (44.9%). Studies had a median population of 661.5 patients, and diseases and disorders of 10 different body systems were studied. Of the 35.9% (N = 28) of papers that included race data, 57.1% (N = 16) of study populations were majority White, 14.3% were majority Asian, and 7.1% were majority Black. In 75% (N = 21) of papers, White was the largest racial group represented. Of the papers included, 43.6% (N = 34) included the sex ratio of the patient population.

DISCUSSION

 With the power to build robust algorithms supported by massive quantities of clinical data, machine learning is shaping the future of diagnostics. Limitations of the underlying data create potential biases, especially if patient demographics are unknown or not included in the training.

CONCLUSION

 As the movement toward clinical reliance on machine learning accelerates, both recording demographic information and using diverse training sets should be emphasized. Extrapolating algorithms to demographics beyond the original study population leaves large gaps for potential biases.

Data-driven methods for dengue prediction and surveillance using real-world and Big Data: A systematic review

Background

Traditionally, dengue surveillance is based on case reporting to a central health agency. However, the delay between a case and its notification can limit the system responsiveness. Machine learning methods have been developed to reduce the reporting delays and to predict outbreaks, based on non-traditional and non-clinical data sources. The aim of this systematic review was to identify studies that used real-world data, Big Data and/or machine learning methods to monitor and predict dengue-related outcomes.

Methodology/Principal findings

We performed a search in PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science and grey literature between January 1, 2000 and August 31, 2020. The review (ID: CRD42020172472) focused on data-driven studies. Reviews, randomized control trials and descriptive studies were not included. Among the 119 studies included, 67% were published between 2016 and 2020, and 39% used at least one novel data stream. The aim of the included studies was to predict a dengue-related outcome (55%), assess the validity of data sources for dengue surveillance (23%), or both (22%). Most studies (60%) used a machine learning approach. Studies on dengue prediction compared different prediction models, or identified significant predictors among several covariates in a model. The most significant predictors were rainfall (43%), temperature (41%), and humidity (25%). The two models with the highest performances were Neural Networks and Decision Trees (52%), followed by Support Vector Machine (17%). We cannot rule out a selection bias in our study because of our two main limitations: we did not include preprints and could not obtain the opinion of other international experts.

Conclusions/Significance

Combining real-world data and Big Data with machine learning methods is a promising approach to improve dengue prediction and monitoring. Future studies should focus on how to better integrate all available data sources and methods to improve the response and dengue management by stakeholders.

Dengue is one of the most important arbovirus infections in the world and its public health, societal and economic burden is increasing. Although the majority of dengue cases are asymptomatic or mild, severe disease forms can lead to death. For this reason, early diagnosis and monitoring of dengue are crucial to decrease mortality. However, most endemic regions still rely on traditional monitoring methods, despite the growing availability of novel data sources and data-driven methods based on real-world data, Big Data, and machine learning algorithms. In this systematic review, we identified and analyzed studies that used these novel approaches for dengue monitoring and/or prediction. We found that novel data streams, such as Internet search engines and social media platforms, and machine learning methods can be successfully used to improve dengue management, but are still vastly ignored in real life. These approaches should be combined with traditional methods to help stakeholders better prepare for each outbreak and improve early responsiveness.

Identification of significant climatic risk factors and machine learning models in dengue outbreak prediction

Background

Dengue fever is a widespread viral disease and one of the world’s major pandemic vector-borne infections, causing serious hazard to humanity. The World Health Organisation (WHO) reported that the incidence of dengue fever has increased dramatically across the world in recent decades. WHO currently estimates an annual incidence of 50–100 million dengue infections worldwide. To date, no tested vaccine or treatment is available to stop or prevent dengue fever. Thus, the importance of predicting dengue outbreaks is significant. The current issue that should be addressed in dengue outbreak prediction is accuracy. A limited number of studies have conducted an in-depth analysis of climate factors in dengue outbreak prediction.

Methods

The most important climatic factors that contribute to dengue outbreaks were identified in the current work. Correlation analyses were performed in order to determine these factors and these factors were used as input parameters for machine learning models. Top five machine learning classification models (Bayes network (BN) models, support vector machine (SVM), RBF tree, decision table and naive Bayes) were chosen based on past research. The models were then tested and evaluated on the basis of 4-year data (January 2010 to December 2013) collected in Malaysia.

Results

This research has two major contributions. A new risk factor, called the TempeRain factor (TRF), was identified and used as an input parameter for the model of dengue outbreak prediction. Moreover, TRF was applied to demonstrate its strong impact on dengue outbreaks. Experimental results showed that the Bayes Network model with the new meteorological risk factor identified in this study increased accuracy to 92.35% for predicting dengue outbreaks.

Conclusions

This research explored the factors used in dengue outbreak prediction systems. The major contribution of this study is identifying new significant factors that contribute to dengue outbreak prediction. From the evaluation result, we obtained a significant improvement in the accuracy of a machine learning model for dengue outbreak prediction.

Applications of artificial neural networks in health care organizational decision-making: A scoping review

Health care organizations are leveraging machine-learning techniques, such as artificial neural networks (ANN), to improve delivery of care at a reduced cost. Applications of ANN to diagnosis are well-known; however, ANN are increasingly used to inform health care management decisions. We provide a seminal review of the applications of ANN to health care organizational decision-making. We screened 3,397 articles from six databases with coverage of Health Administration, Computer Science and Business Administration. We extracted study characteristics, aim, methodology and context (including level of analysis) from 80 articles meeting inclusion criteria. Articles were published from 1997-2018 and originated from 24 countries, with a plurality of papers (26 articles) published by authors from the United States. Types of ANN used included ANN (36 articles), feed-forward networks (25 articles), or hybrid models (23 articles); reported accuracy varied from 50% to 100%. The majority of ANN informed decision-making at the micro level (61 articles), between patients and health care providers. Fewer ANN were deployed for intra-organizational (meso- level, 29 articles) and system, policy or inter-organizational (macro- level, 10 articles) decision-making. Our review identifies key characteristics and drivers for market uptake of ANN for health care organizational decision-making to guide further adoption of this technique.

Classification of containers with Aedes aegypti pupae using a Neural Networks model

Introduction

This paper discusses the presence of Aedes aegypti pupae in different types of containers considering: volume, pH of the container, among other variables.

Methods

A nonlinear method for selection was applied, based on Mutual Information, by placing in order of importance the most appropriate variables for identifying containers with and without Aedes aegypti pupae. Such variables were used for input into a Neural Network in layers for classification.

Results

Among the experiments carried out, the best result obtained used the first eight variables selected by order of importance. The percentage of hits for containers which had no Aedes aegypti pupae was 73.3%, and 80.9% for those which did have Aedes aegypti pupae in the containers. This Neural Network method, a model with the capacity to emulate non-linear data, got better results in comparison with the discriminant power of the Logistic Regression model. Thus, the outcomes of using the Neural Networks method achieved better separability in classifying the containers with pupae and those with no pupae.

Conclusion

This type of analysis will aid in the efforts to design an efficient program to control Aedes aegypti that can concentrate principally on containers which present the greatest productivity.

The authors discuss a nonlinear method, based on Mutual Information, for selection of the presence of Aedes aegypti pupae in different breeding sites. The authors compare this method with the logistic regression model. In this study, using the Neural Network model, the variables that better discriminate the containers with Aedes aegypti pupae from the containers without pupae were size—the larger the container volume the greater the proportion of containers positive for pupae–, the presence of another type of pupa other than Aedes aegypti and the location of the container outside the home. The Neural Network method, a model with the capacity to emulate non-linear data, got better results in comparison with the discriminant power of the Logistic Regression model. Thus, the outcomes of the Neural Networks method achieved better separability in classifying the containers with pupae and those with no pupae. This type of analysis will aid in the efforts to design an efficient program to control Aedes aegypti that can concentrate principally on containers which present the greatest productivity.

Mathematical modelling and a systems science approach to describe the role of cytokines in the evolution of severe dengue

Background

Dengue causes considerable morbidity and mortality in Sri Lanka. Inflammatory mediators such as cytokines, contribute to its evolution from an asymptotic infection to severe forms of dengue. The majority of previous studies have analysed the association of individual cytokines with clinical disease severity. In contrast, we view evolution to Dengue Haemorrhagic Fever as the behaviour of a complex dynamic system. We therefore, analyse the combined effect of multiple cytokines that interact dynamically with each other in order to generate a mathematical model to predict occurrence of Dengue Haemorrhagic Fever. We expect this to have predictive value in detecting severe cases and improve outcomes. Platelet activating factor (PAF), Sphingosine 1- Phosphate (S1P), IL-1β, TNFα and IL-10 are used as the parameters for the model. Hierarchical clustering is used to detect factors that correlated with each other. Their interactions are mapped using Fuzzy Logic mechanisms with the combination of modified Hamacher and OWA operators. Trapezoidal membership functions are developed for each of the cytokine parameters and the degree of unfavourability to attain Dengue Haemorrhagic Fever is measured.

Results

The accuracy of this model in predicting severity level of dengue is 71.43% at 96 h from the onset of illness, 85.00% at 108 h and 76.92% at 120 h. A region of ambiguity is detected in the model for the value range 0.36 to 0.51. Sensitivity analysis indicates that this is a robust mathematical model.

Conclusions

The results show a robust mathematical model that explains the evolution from dengue to its serious forms in individual patients with high accuracy. However, this model would have to be further improved by including additional parameters and should be validated on other data sets.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12918-017-0415-3) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Bioimpedance Vector Analysis in Diagnosing Severe and Non-Severe Dengue Patients

Real-time monitoring and precise diagnosis of the severity of Dengue infection is needed for better decisions in disease management. The aim of this study is to use the Bioimpedance Vector Analysis (BIVA) method to differentiate between healthy subjects and severe and non-severe Dengue-infected patients. Bioimpedance was measured using a 50 KHz single-frequency bioimpedance analyzer. Data from 299 healthy subjects (124 males and 175 females) and 205 serologically confirmed Dengue patients (123 males and 82 females) were analyzed in this study. The obtained results show that the BIVA method was able to assess and classify the body fluid and cell mass condition between the healthy subjects and the Dengue-infected patients. The bioimpedance mean vectors (95% confidence ellipse) for healthy subjects, severe and non-severe Dengue-infected patients were illustrated. The vector is significantly shortened from healthy subjects to Dengue patients; for both genders the p-value is less than 0.0001. The mean vector of severe Dengue patients is significantly shortened compare to non-severe patients with a p-value of 0.0037 and 0.0023 for males and females, respectively. This study confirms that the BIVA method is a valid method in differentiating the healthy, severe and non-severe Dengue-infected subjects. All tests performed had a significance level with a p-value less than 0.05.

Analysis of significant factors for dengue fever incidence prediction

Background

Many popular dengue forecasting techniques have been used by several researchers to extrapolate dengue incidence rates, including the K-H model, support vector machines (SVM), and artificial neural networks (ANN). The time series analysis methodology, particularly ARIMA and SARIMA, has been increasingly applied to the field of epidemiological research for dengue fever, dengue hemorrhagic fever, and other infectious diseases. The main drawback of these methods is that they do not consider other variables that are associated with the dependent variable. Additionally, new factors correlated to the disease are needed to enhance the prediction accuracy of the model when it is applied to areas of similar climates, where weather factors such as temperature, total rainfall, and humidity are not substantially different. Such drawbacks may consequently lower the predictive power for the outbreak.

Results

The predictive power of the forecasting model-assessed by Akaike’s information criterion (AIC), Bayesian information criterion (BIC), and the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE)-is improved by including the new parameters for dengue outbreak prediction. This study’s selected model outperforms all three other competing models with the lowest AIC, the lowest BIC, and a small MAPE value. The exclusive use of climate factors from similar locations decreases a model’s prediction power. The multivariate Poisson regression, however, effectively forecasts even when climate variables are slightly different. Female mosquitoes and seasons were strongly correlated with dengue cases. Therefore, the dengue incidence trends provided by this model will assist the optimization of dengue prevention.

Conclusions

The present work demonstrates the important roles of female mosquito infection rates from the previous season and climate factors (represented as seasons) in dengue outbreaks. Incorporating these two factors in the model significantly improves the predictive power of dengue hemorrhagic fever forecasting models, as confirmed by AIC, BIC, and MAPE.

Morbidity Rate Prediction of Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever (DHF) Using the Support Vector Machine and the Aedes aegypti Infection Rate in Similar Climates and Geographical Areas

Background

In the past few decades, several researchers have proposed highly accurate prediction models that have typically relied on climate parameters. However, climate factors can be unreliable and can lower the effectiveness of prediction when they are applied in locations where climate factors do not differ significantly. The purpose of this study was to improve a dengue surveillance system in areas with similar climate by exploiting the infection rate in the Aedes aegypti mosquito and using the support vector machine (SVM) technique for forecasting the dengue morbidity rate.

Methods and Findings

Areas with high incidence of dengue outbreaks in central Thailand were studied. The proposed framework consisted of the following three major parts: 1) data integration, 2) model construction, and 3) model evaluation. We discovered that the Ae. aegypti female and larvae mosquito infection rates were significantly positively associated with the morbidity rate. Thus, the increasing infection rate of female mosquitoes and larvae led to a higher number of dengue cases, and the prediction performance increased when those predictors were integrated into a predictive model. In this research, we applied the SVM with the radial basis function (RBF) kernel to forecast the high morbidity rate and take precautions to prevent the development of pervasive dengue epidemics. The experimental results showed that the introduced parameters significantly increased the prediction accuracy to 88.37% when used on the test set data, and these parameters led to the highest performance compared to state-of-the-art forecasting models.

Conclusions

The infection rates of the Ae. aegypti female mosquitoes and larvae improved the morbidity rate forecasting efficiency better than the climate parameters used in classical frameworks. We demonstrated that the SVM-R-based model has high generalization performance and obtained the highest prediction performance compared to classical models as measured by the accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, and mean absolute error (MAE).

The application of biomedical engineering techniques to the diagnosis and management of tropical diseases: a review

This paper reviews a number of biomedical engineering approaches to help aid in the detection and treatment of tropical diseases such as dengue, malaria, cholera, schistosomiasis, lymphatic filariasis, ebola, leprosy, leishmaniasis, and American trypanosomiasis (Chagas). Many different forms of non-invasive approaches such as ultrasound, echocardiography and electrocardiography, bioelectrical impedance, optical detection, simplified and rapid serological tests such as lab-on-chip and micro-/nano-fluidic platforms and medical support systems such as artificial intelligence clinical support systems are discussed. The paper also reviewed the novel clinical diagnosis and management systems using artificial intelligence and bioelectrical impedance techniques for dengue clinical applications.

NON-INVASIVE APPROACH TO PREDICT THE CHOLESTEROL LEVEL IN BLOOD USING BIOIMPEDANCE AND NEURAL NETWORK TECHNIQUES

This paper presents a new non-invasive approach to predict the status of high total cholesterol (TC) level in blood using bioimpedance and the artificial neural network (ANN) techniques. The input parameters for the ANN model are acquired from a non-invasive bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA) measurement technique. The measurement data were obtained from 260 volunteered participants. A total of 190 subject's data were used for the ANN training purpose and the remaining 70 subject's data were used for model testing. Six parameters from the BIA parameters were found to be significant predictors for TC level in blood using logistic regression analysis. The six input predictors for the ANN modeling are age, body mass index (BMI), body capacitance, basal metabolic rate, extracellular mass and lean body mass. Four ANN techniques such as the gradient descent with momentum, the resilient, the scaled conjugate gradient and the Levenberg–Marquardt were used and compared for predicting the high TC level in the blood. The finding showed that the resilient method was the best model with prediction accuracy, sensitivity, specificity and area under the curve value obtained from the test data were 82.9%, 85.4%, 79.3% and 0.83%, respectively.