The Evolution of Tumour Composition During Fractionated Radiotherapy: Implications for Outcome

A Population-Based Tumor-Volume Model for Head and Neck Cancer During Radiation Therapy With a Dynamic Oxygenated Compartment

PURPOSE

With the coming era of digital medicine and healthcare technology, mathematical modeling of tumors has become a key step to optimize and realize precision radiation therapy. The purpose of this study was to develop a mathematical model for simulating the change of head and neck (HN) tumor volume during radiation therapy.

METHODS AND MATERIALS

A formula was developed to describe the dynamic change of oxygenated compartment within a tumor, which was combined with the lethal lesions model to describe various cell processes during radiation therapy, including potentially lethal lesion repair and misrepair, cell proliferation/loss, and tumor reoxygenation. Parameter sensitivity analysis was performed to evaluate the impacts of lesion- and repair-related biological factors on radiation therapy outcomes.

RESULTS

We tested our model on 14 available patients with HN cancer and compared the performance with 3 other models. The mean error of our model for the 12 good fit cases was 12.2%, which is considerably smaller than that of the linear quadratic model (19.7%), the generalized linear quadratic model (19.1%), and a 4-level cell population model (16.6%). Correlation analysis results revealed that for small tumors, there was a positive correlation (correlation coefficient r=0.9416) between hypoxic fraction (hf) and tumor volume, whereas the correlation became negative and not significant (r=-0.4365) for large tumors. It is demonstrated from sensitivity analysis that the production rate of lethal lesions (ηl) has a far greater impact on tumor volume than other parameters. The hf had an insignificant impact on tumor volume but had a notable influence on the volume of surviving cells. The final volume of surviving cells athf=0.5 was almost 8 ×102 times that of hf=0.01. The potentially lethal lesion-related parameters (the production rate of potentially lethal lessions per unit dose ηpl, the rate of correct repair per unit time εpl, and the rate of binary misrepair per unit time ε2pl) had rather small impacts (<1%) on both tumor volume and the volume of surviving cells, which indicates that the repaired and misrepaired sublethal cells only take up a small portion of the total cancer cell population.

CONCLUSIONS

A population-based tumor-volume model for HN cancer during radiation therapy with a dynamic oxygenated compartment was developed in this study. Comprehensively considering the damage process of tumor cells caused by radiation therapy, the accurate prediction of the volume change of HN tumors during treatment was revealed. Meanwhile, various cell activities and their principles in the process of antitumor treatment were reflected, which has positive clinical reference significance for radiobiology.

AMBER: A Modular Model for Tumor Growth, Vasculature and Radiation Response

Computational models of tumor growth are valuable for simulating the dynamics of cancer progression and treatment responses. In particular, agent-based models (ABMs) tracking individual agents and their interactions are useful for their flexibility and ability to model complex behaviors. However, ABMs have often been confined to small domains or, when scaled up, have neglected crucial aspects like vasculature. Additionally, the integration into tumor ABMs of precise radiation dose calculations using gold-standard Monte Carlo (MC) methods, crucial in contemporary radiotherapy, has been lacking. Here, we introduce AMBER, an Agent-based fraMework for radioBiological Effects in Radiotherapy that computationally models tumor growth and radiation responses. AMBER is based on a voxelized geometry, enabling realistic simulations at relevant pre-clinical scales by tracking temporally discrete states stepwise. Its hybrid approach, combining traditional ABM techniques with continuous spatiotemporal fields of key microenvironmental factors such as oxygen and vascular endothelial growth factor, facilitates the generation of realistic tortuous vascular trees. Moreover, AMBER is integrated with TOPAS, an MC-based particle transport algorithm that simulates heterogeneous radiation doses. The impact of radiation on tumor dynamics considers the microenvironmental factors that alter radiosensitivity, such as oxygen availability, providing a full coupling between the biological and physical aspects. Our results show that simulations with AMBER yield accurate tumor evolution and radiation treatment outcomes, consistent with established volumetric growth laws and radiobiological understanding. Thus, AMBER emerges as a promising tool for replicating essential features of tumor growth and radiation response, offering a modular design for future expansions to incorporate specific biological traits.

Rethinking the potential role of dose painting in personalized ultra-fractionated stereotactic adaptive radiotherapy

Fractionated radiotherapy was established in the 1920s based upon two principles: (1) delivering daily treatments of equal quantity, unless the clinical situation requires adjustment, and (2) defining a specific treatment period to deliver a total dosage. Modern fractionated radiotherapy continues to adhere to these century-old principles, despite significant advancements in our understanding of radiobiology. At UT Southwestern, we are exploring a novel treatment approach called PULSAR (Personalized Ultra-Fractionated Stereotactic Adaptive Radiotherapy). This method involves administering tumoricidal doses in a pulse mode with extended intervals, typically spanning weeks or even a month. Extended intervals permit substantial recovery of normal tissues and afford the tumor and tumor microenvironment ample time to undergo significant changes, enabling more meaningful adaptation in response to the evolving characteristics of the tumor. The notion of dose painting in the realm of radiation therapy has long been a subject of contention. The debate primarily revolves around its clinical effectiveness and optimal methods of implementation. In this perspective, we discuss two facets concerning the potential integration of dose painting with PULSAR, along with several practical considerations. If successful, the combination of the two may not only provide another level of personal adaptation ("adaptive dose painting"), but also contribute to the establishment of a timely feedback loop throughout the treatment process. To substantiate our perspective, we conducted a fundamental modeling study focusing on PET-guided dose painting, incorporating tumor heterogeneity and tumor control probability (TCP).

Integrating and optimizing tonabersat in standard glioblastoma therapy: A preclinical study

Glioblastoma (GB), a highly aggressive primary brain tumor, presents a poor prognosis despite the current standard therapy, including radiotherapy and temozolomide (TMZ) chemotherapy. Tumor microtubes involving connexin 43 (Cx43) contribute to glioma progression and therapy resistance, suggesting Cx43 inhibition as a potential treatment strategy. This research aims to explore the adjuvant potential of tonabersat, a Cx43 gap junction modulator and blood-brain barrier-penetrating compound, in combination with the standard of care for GB. In addition, different administration schedules and timings to optimize tonabersat's therapeutic window are investigated. The F98 Fischer rat model will be utilized to investigate tonabersat's impact in a clinically relevant setting, by incorporating fractionated radiotherapy (three fractions of 9 Gy) and TMZ chemotherapy (29 mg/kg). This study will evaluate tonabersat's impact on tumor growth, survival, and treatment response through advanced imaging (CE T1-w MRI) and histological analysis. Results show extended survival in rats receiving tonabersat with standard care, highlighting its adjuvant potential. Daily tonabersat administration, both preceding and following radiotherapy, emerges as a promising approach for maximizing survival outcomes. The study suggests tonabersat's potential to reduce tumor invasiveness, providing a new avenue for GB treatment. In conclusion, this preclinical investigation highlights tonabersat's potential as an effective adjuvant treatment for GB, and its established safety profile from clinical trials in migraine treatment presents a promising foundation for further exploration.

Predicting Radiotherapy Patient Outcomes with Real-Time Clinical Data Using Mathematical Modelling

Longitudinal tumour volume data from head-and-neck cancer patients show that tumours of comparable pre-treatment size and stage may respond very differently to the same radiotherapy fractionation protocol. Mathematical models are often proposed to predict treatment outcome in this context, and have the potential to guide clinical decision-making and inform personalised fractionation protocols. Hindering effective use of models in this context is the sparsity of clinical measurements juxtaposed with the model complexity required to produce the full range of possible patient responses. In this work, we present a compartment model of tumour volume and tumour composition, which, despite relative simplicity, is capable of producing a wide range of patient responses. We then develop novel statistical methodology and leverage a cohort of existing clinical data to produce a predictive model of both tumour volume progression and the associated level of uncertainty that evolves throughout a patient's course of treatment. To capture inter-patient variability, all model parameters are patient specific, with a bootstrap particle filter-like Bayesian approach developed to model a set of training data as prior knowledge. We validate our approach against a subset of unseen data, and demonstrate both the predictive ability of our trained model and its limitations.

Simulating tumor volume dynamics in response to radiotherapy: Implications of model selection

From the beginning of the usage of radiotherapy (RT) for cancer treatment, mathematical modeling has been integral to understanding radiobiology and for designing treatment approaches and schedules. There has been extensive modeling of response to RT with the inclusion of various degrees of biological complexity. In this study, we compare three models of tumor volume dynamics: (1) exponential growth with RT directly reducing tumor volume, (2) logistic growth with direct tumor volume reduction, and (3) logistic growth with RT reducing the tumor carrying capacity with the objective of understanding the implications of model selection and informing the process of model calibration and parameterization. For all three models, we: examined the rates of change in tumor volume during and RT treatment course; performed parameter sensitivity and identifiability analyses; and investigated the impact of the parameter sensitivity on the tumor volume trajectories. In examining the tumor volume dynamics trends, we coined a new metric - the point of maximum reduction of tumor volume (MRV) - to quantify the magnitude and timing of the expected largest impact of RT during a treatment course. We found distinct timing differences in MRV, dependent on model selection. The parameter identifiability and sensitivity analyses revealed the interdependence of the different model parameters and that it is only possible to independently identify tumor growth and radiation response parameters if the underlying tumor growth rate is sufficiently large. Ultimately, the results of these analyses help us to better understand the implications of model selection while simultaneously generating falsifiable hypotheses about MRV timing that can be tested on longitudinal measurements of tumor volume from pre-clinical or clinical data with high acquisition frequency. Although, our study only compares three particular models, the results demonstrate that caution is necessary in selecting models of response to RT, given the artifacts imposed by each model.

An improved F98 glioblastoma rat model to evaluate novel treatment strategies incorporating the standard of care

Glioblastoma (GB) is the most common and malignant primary brain tumor in adults with a median survival of 12-15 months. The F98 Fischer rat model is one of the most frequently used animal models for GB studies. However, suboptimal inoculation leads to extra-axial and extracranial tumor formations, affecting its translational value. We aim to improve the F98 rat model by incorporating MRI-guided (hypo)fractionated radiotherapy (3 x 9 Gy) and concomitant temozolomide chemotherapy, mimicking the current standard of care. To minimize undesired tumor growth, we reduced the number of inoculated cells (starting from 20 000 to 500 F98 cells), slowed the withdrawal of the syringe post-inoculation, and irradiated the inoculation track separately. Our results reveal that reducing the number of F98 GB cells correlates with a diminished risk of extra-axial and extracranial tumor growth. However, this introduces higher variability in days until GB confirmation and uniformity in GB growth. To strike a balance, the model inoculated with 5000 F98 cells displayed the best results and was chosen as the most favorable. In conclusion, our improved model offers enhanced translational potential, paving the way for more accurate and reliable assessments of novel adjuvant therapeutic approaches for GB.

Formation and Growth of Co-Culture Tumour Spheroids: New Compartment-Based Mathematical Models and Experiments

Co-culture tumour spheroid experiments are routinely performed to investigate cancer progression and test anti-cancer therapies. Therefore, methods to quantitatively characterise and interpret co-culture spheroid growth are of great interest. However, co-culture spheroid growth is complex. Multiple biological processes occur on overlapping timescales and different cell types within the spheroid may have different characteristics, such as differing proliferation rates or responses to nutrient availability. At present there is no standard, widely-accepted mathematical model of such complex spatio-temporal growth processes. Typical approaches to analyse these experiments focus on the late-time temporal evolution of spheroid size and overlook early-time spheroid formation, spheroid structure and geometry. Here, using a range of ordinary differential equation-based mathematical models and parameter estimation, we interpret new co-culture experimental data. We provide new biological insights about spheroid formation, growth, and structure. As part of this analysis we connect Greenspan's seminal mathematical model to co-culture data for the first time. Furthermore, we generalise a class of compartment-based spheroid mathematical models that have previously been restricted to one population so they can be applied to multiple populations. As special cases of the general model, we explore multiple natural two population extensions to Greenspan's seminal model and reveal biological mechanisms that can describe the internal dynamics of growing co-culture spheroids and those that cannot. This mathematical and statistical modelling-based framework is well-suited to analyse spheroids grown with multiple different cell types and the new class of mathematical models provide opportunities for further mathematical and biological insights.

Investigating the Influence of Growth Arrest Mechanisms on Tumour Responses to Radiotherapy

Cancer is a heterogeneous disease and tumours of the same type can differ greatly at the genetic and phenotypic levels. Understanding how these differences impact sensitivity to treatment is an essential step towards patient-specific treatment design. In this paper, we investigate how two different mechanisms for growth control may affect tumour cell responses to fractionated radiotherapy (RT) by extending an existing ordinary differential equation model of tumour growth. In the absence of treatment, this model distinguishes between growth arrest due to nutrient insufficiency and competition for space and exhibits three growth regimes: nutrient limited, space limited (SL) and bistable (BS), where both mechanisms for growth arrest coexist. We study the effect of RT for tumours in each regime, finding that tumours in the SL regime typically respond best to RT, while tumours in the BS regime typically respond worst to RT. For tumours in each regime, we also identify the biological processes that may explain positive and negative treatment outcomes and the dosing regimen which maximises the reduction in tumour burden.

Predicting the Tumour Response to Radiation by Modelling the Five Rs of Radiotherapy Using PET Images

Despite the intensive use of radiotherapy in clinical practice, its effectiveness depends on several factors. Several studies showed that the tumour response to radiation differs from one patient to another. The non-uniform response of the tumour is mainly caused by multiple interactions between the tumour microenvironment and healthy cells. To understand these interactions, five major biologic concepts called the "5 Rs" have emerged. These concepts include reoxygenation, DNA damage repair, cell cycle redistribution, cellular radiosensitivity and cellular repopulation. In this study, we used a multi-scale model, which included the five Rs of radiotherapy, to predict the effects of radiation on tumour growth. In this model, the oxygen level was varied in both time and space. When radiotherapy was given, the sensitivity of cells depending on their location in the cell cycle was taken in account. This model also considered the repair of cells by giving a different probability of survival after radiation for tumour and normal cells. Here, we developed four fractionation protocol schemes. We used simulated and positron emission tomography (PET) imaging with the hypoxia tracer 18F-flortanidazole (18F-HX4) images as input data of our model. In addition, tumour control probability curves were simulated. The result showed the evolution of tumours and normal cells. The increase in the cell number after radiation was seen in both normal and malignant cells, which proves that repopulation was included in this model. The proposed model predicts the tumour response to radiation and forms the basis for a more patient-specific clinical tool where related biological data will be included.

Mathematical modelling of the dynamics of image-informed tumor habitats in a murine model of glioma

Tumors exhibit high molecular, phenotypic, and physiological heterogeneity. In this effort, we employ quantitative magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) data to capture this heterogeneity through imaging-based subregions or "habitats" in a murine model of glioma. We then demonstrate the ability to model and predict the growth of the habitats using coupled ordinary differential equations (ODEs) in the presence and absence of radiotherapy. Female Wistar rats (N = 21) were inoculated intracranially with 10⁶ C6 glioma cells, a subset of which received 20 Gy (N = 5) or 40 Gy (N = 8) of radiation. All rats underwent diffusion-weighted and dynamic contrast-enhanced MRI at up to seven time points. All MRI data at each visit were subsequently clustered using k-means to identify physiological tumor habitats. A family of four models consisting of three coupled ODEs were developed and calibrated to the habitat time series of control and treated rats and evaluated for predictive capability. The Akaike Information Criterion was used for model selection, and the normalized sum-of-square-error (SSE) was used to evaluate goodness-of-fit in model calibration and prediction. Three tumor habitats with significantly different imaging data characteristics (p < 0.05) were identified: high-vascularity high-cellularity, low-vascularity high-cellularity, and low-vascularity low-cellularity. Model selection resulted in a five-parameter model whose predictions of habitat dynamics yielded SSEs that were similar to the SSEs from the calibrated model. It is thus feasible to mathematically describe habitat dynamics in a preclinical model of glioma using biology-based ODEs, showing promise for forecasting heterogeneous tumor behavior.

Tumour Genetic Heterogeneity in Relation to Oral Squamous Cell Carcinoma and Anti-Cancer Treatment

Oral squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) represents more than 90% of all oral cancers and is the most frequent SCC of the head and neck region. It may affect any oral mucosal subsite but most frequently the tongue, followed by the floor of the mouth. The use of tobacco and betel nut, either smoked or chewed, and abuse of alcohol are the main risk factors for oral SCC. Oral SCC is characterized by considerable genetic heterogeneity and diversity, which together have a significant impact on the biological behaviour, clinical course, and response to treatment and on the generally poor prognosis of this carcinoma. Characterization of spatial and temporal tumour-specific molecular profiles and of person-specific resource availability and environmental and biological selective pressures could assist in personalizing anti-cancer treatment for individual patients, with the aim of improving treatment outcomes. In this narrative review, we discuss some of the events in cancer evolution and the functional significance of driver-mutations in carcinoma-related genes in general and elaborate on mechanisms mediating resistance to anti-cancer treatment.

Growth and adaptation mechanisms of tumour spheroids with time-dependent oxygen availability

Tumours are subject to external environmental variability. However, in vitro tumour spheroid experiments, used to understand cancer progression and develop cancer therapies, have been routinely performed for the past fifty years in constant external environments. Furthermore, spheroids are typically grown in ambient atmospheric oxygen (normoxia), whereas most in vivo tumours exist in hypoxic environments. Therefore, there are clear discrepancies between in vitro and in vivo conditions. We explore these discrepancies by combining tools from experimental biology, mathematical modelling, and statistical uncertainty quantification. Focusing on oxygen variability to develop our framework, we reveal key biological mechanisms governing tumour spheroid growth. Growing spheroids in time-dependent conditions, we identify and quantify novel biological adaptation mechanisms, including unexpected necrotic core removal, and transient reversal of the tumour spheroid growth phases.

Integration of Heterogeneous Biological Data in Multiscale Mechanistic Model Calibration: Application to Lung Adenocarcinoma

Mechanistic models are built using knowledge as the primary information source, with well-established biological and physical laws determining the causal relationships within the model. Once the causal structure of the model is determined, parameters must be defined in order to accurately reproduce relevant data. Determining parameters and their values is particularly challenging in the case of models of pathophysiology, for which data for calibration is sparse. Multiple data sources might be required, and data may not be in a uniform or desirable format. We describe a calibration strategy to address the challenges of scarcity and heterogeneity of calibration data. Our strategy focuses on parameters whose initial values cannot be easily derived from the literature, and our goal is to determine the values of these parameters via calibration with constraints set by relevant data. When combined with a covariance matrix adaptation evolution strategy (CMA-ES), this step-by-step approach can be applied to a wide range of biological models. We describe a stepwise, integrative and iterative approach to multiscale mechanistic model calibration, and provide an example of calibrating a pathophysiological lung adenocarcinoma model. Using the approach described here we illustrate the successful calibration of a complex knowledge-based mechanistic model using only the limited heterogeneous datasets publicly available in the literature.

Combining Mechanisms of Growth Arrest in Solid Tumours: A Mathematical Investigation

The processes underpinning solid tumour growth involve the interactions between various healthy and tumour tissue components and the vasculature, and can be affected in different ways by cancer treatment. In particular, the growth-limiting mechanisms at play may influence tumour responses to treatment. In this paper, we propose a simple ordinary differential equation model of solid tumour growth to investigate how tumour-specific mechanisms of growth arrest may affect tumour response to different combination cancer therapies. We consider the interactions of tumour cells with the physical space in which they proliferate and a nutrient supplied by the tumour vasculature, with the aim of representing two distinct growth arrest mechanisms. More specifically, we wish to consider growth arrest due to (1) nutrient deficiency, which corresponds to balancing cell proliferation and death rates, and (2) competition for space, which corresponds to cessation of proliferation without cell death. We perform numerical simulations of the model and a steady-state analysis to determine the possible tumour growth scenarios described by the model. We find that there are three distinct growth regimes: the nutrient- and spatially limited regimes and a bi-stable regime, in which both growth arrest mechanisms are simultaneously active. Thus, the proposed model has the features required to investigate and distinguish tumour responses to different cancer treatments.

Patient Derived Ex-Vivo Cancer Models in Drug Development, Personalized Medicine, and Radiotherapy

Simple Summary

This review article highlights gaps in the current system of drug development and personalized medicine for cancer therapy. The ex vivo model system using tissue biopsy from patients will advance the development of the predictive disease specific biomarker, drug screening and assessment of treatment response on a personalized basis. Although this ex vivo system demonstrated promises, there are challenges and limitations which need to be mitigated for further advancement and better applications.

Abstract

The field of cancer research is famous for its incremental steps in improving therapy. The consistent but slow rate of improvement is greatly due to its meticulous use of consistent cancer biology models. However, as we enter an era of increasingly personalized cancer care, including chemo and radiotherapy, our cancer models must be equally able to be applied to all individuals. Patient-derived organoid (PDO) and organ-in-chip (OIC) models based on the micro-physiological bioengineered platform have already been considered key components for preclinical and translational studies. Accounting for patient variability is one of the greatest challenges in the crossover from preclinical development to clinical trials and patient derived organoids may offer a steppingstone between the two. In this review, we highlight how incorporating PDO’s and OIC’s into the development of cancer therapy promises to increase the efficiency of our therapeutics.

In silico simulation of the effect of hypoxia on MCF-7 cell cycle kinetics under fractionated radiotherapy

The treatment outcome of a given fractionated radiotherapy scheme is affected by oxygen tension and cell cycle kinetics of the tumor population. Numerous experimental studies have supported the variability of radiosensitivity with cell cycle phase. Oxygen modulates the radiosensitivity through hypoxia-inducible factor (HIF) stabilization and oxygen fixation hypothesis (OFH) mechanism. In this study, an existing mathematical model describing cell cycle kinetics was modified to include the oxygen-dependent G1/S transition rate and radiation inactivation rate. The radiation inactivation rate used was derived from the linear-quadratic (LQ) model with dependence on oxygen enhancement ratio (OER), while the oxygen-dependent correction for the G1/S phase transition was obtained from numerically solving the ODE system of cyclin D-HIF dynamics at different oxygen tensions. The corresponding cell cycle phase fractions of aerated MCF-7 tumor population, and the resulting growth curve obtained from numerically solving the developed mathematical model were found to be comparable to experimental data. Two breast radiotherapy fractionation schemes were investigated using the mathematical model. Results show that hypoxia causes the tumor to be more predominated by the tumor subpopulation in the G1 phase and decrease the fractional contribution of the more radioresistant tumor cells in the S phase. However, the advantage provided by hypoxia in terms of cell cycle phase distribution is largely offset by the radioresistance developed through OFH. The delayed proliferation caused by severe hypoxia slightly improves the radiotherapy efficacy compared to that with mild hypoxia for a high overall treatment duration as demonstrated in the 40-Gy fractionation scheme.

A Mathematical Study of the Influence of Hypoxia and Acidity on the Evolutionary Dynamics of Cancer

Hypoxia and acidity act as environmental stressors promoting selection for cancer cells with a more aggressive phenotype. As a result, a deeper theoretical understanding of the spatio-temporal processes that drive the adaptation of tumour cells to hypoxic and acidic microenvironments may open up new avenues of research in oncology and cancer treatment. We present a mathematical model to study the influence of hypoxia and acidity on the evolutionary dynamics of cancer cells in vascularised tumours. The model is formulated as a system of partial integro-differential equations that describe the phenotypic evolution of cancer cells in response to dynamic variations in the spatial distribution of three abiotic factors that are key players in tumour metabolism: oxygen, glucose and lactate. The results of numerical simulations of a calibrated version of the model based on real data recapitulate the eco-evolutionary spatial dynamics of tumour cells and their adaptation to hypoxic and acidic microenvironments. Moreover, such results demonstrate how nonlinear interactions between tumour cells and abiotic factors can lead to the formation of environmental gradients which select for cells with phenotypic characteristics that vary with distance from intra-tumour blood vessels, thus promoting the emergence of intra-tumour phenotypic heterogeneity. Finally, our theoretical findings reconcile the conclusions of earlier studies by showing that the order in which resistance to hypoxia and resistance to acidity arise in tumours depend on the ways in which oxygen and lactate act as environmental stressors in the evolutionary dynamics of cancer cells.

Phenotypic variation modulates the growth dynamics and response to radiotherapy of solid tumours under normoxia and hypoxia

In cancer, treatment failure and disease recurrence have been associated with small subpopulations of cancer cells with a stem-like phenotype. In this paper, we develop and investigate a phenotype-structured model of solid tumour growth in which cells are structured by a stemness level, which varies continuously between stem-like and terminally differentiated behaviours. Cell evolution is driven by proliferation and death, as well as advection and diffusion with respect to the stemness structure variable. Here, the magnitude and sign of the advective flux are allowed to vary with the oxygen level. We use the model to investigate how the environment, in particular oxygen levels, affects the tumour's population dynamics and composition, and its response to radiotherapy. We use a combination of numerical and analytical techniques to quantify how under physiological oxygen levels the cells evolve to a differentiated phenotype and under low oxygen level (i.e., hypoxia) they de-differentiate. Under normoxia, the proportion of cancer stem cells is typically negligible and the tumour may ultimately become extinct whereas under hypoxia cancer stem cells comprise a dominant proportion of the tumour volume, enhancing radio-resistance and favouring the tumour's long-term survival. We then investigate how such phenotypic heterogeneity impacts the tumour's response to treatment with radiotherapy under normoxia and hypoxia. Of particular interest is establishing how the presence of radio-resistant cancer stem cells can facilitate a tumour's regrowth following radiotherapy. We also use the model to show how radiation-induced changes in tumour oxygen levels can give rise to complex re-growth dynamics. For example, transient periods of hypoxia induced by damage to tumour blood vessels may rescue the cancer cell population from extinction and drive secondary regrowth.

Data Driven Mathematical Model of FOLFIRI Treatment for Colon Cancer

Many colon cancer patients show resistance to their treatments. Therefore, it is important to consider unique characteristic of each tumor to find the best treatment options for each patient. In this study, we develop a data driven mathematical model for interaction between the tumor microenvironment and FOLFIRI drug agents in colon cancer. Patients are divided into five distinct clusters based on their estimated immune cell fractions obtained from their primary tumors' gene expression data. We then analyze the effects of drugs on cancer cells and immune cells in each group, and we observe different responses to the FOLFIRI drugs between patients in different immune groups. For instance, patients in cluster 3 with the highest T-reg/T-helper ratio respond better to the FOLFIRI treatment, while patients in cluster 2 with the lowest T-reg/T-helper ratio resist the treatment. Moreover, we use ROC curve to validate the model using the tumor status of the patients at their follow up, and the model predicts well for the earlier follow up days.

Mathematical Model of Tumour Spheroid Experiments with Real-Time Cell Cycle Imaging

Three-dimensional (3D) in vitro tumour spheroid experiments are an important tool for studying cancer progression and potential cancer drug therapies. Standard experiments involve growing and imaging spheroids to explore how different conditions lead to different rates of spheroid growth. These kinds of experiments, however, do not reveal any information about the spatial distribution of the cell cycle within the expanding spheroid. Since 2008, a new experimental technology called fluorescent ubiquitination-based cell cycle indicator (FUCCI) has enabled real-time in situ visualisation of the cell cycle progression. Observations of 3D tumour spheroids with FUCCI labelling reveal significant intratumoural structure, as the cell cycle status can vary with location. Although many mathematical models of tumour spheroid growth have been developed, none of the existing mathematical models are designed to interpret experimental observations with FUCCI labelling. In this work, we adapt the mathematical framework originally proposed by Ward and King (Math Med Biol 14:39-69, 1997. https://doi.org/10.1093/imammb/14.1.39 ) to produce a new mathematical model of FUCCI-labelled tumour spheroid growth. The mathematical model treats the spheroid as being composed of three subpopulations: (i) living cells in G1 phase that fluoresce red; (ii) living cells in S/G2/M phase that fluoresce green; and (iii) dead cells that are not fluorescent. We assume that the rates at which cells pass through different phases of the cell cycle, and the rate of cell death, depend upon the local oxygen concentration. Parameterising the new mathematical model using experimental measurements of cell cycle transition times, we show that the model can qualitatively capture important experimental observations that cannot be addressed using previous mathematical models. Further, we show that the mathematical model can be used to qualitatively mimic the action of anti-mitotic drugs applied to the spheroid. All software programs required to solve the nonlinear moving boundary problem associated with the new mathematical model are available on GitHub. at https://github.com/wang-jin-mathbio/Jin2021.

Mathematical modelling reveals cellular dynamics within tumour spheroids

Tumour spheroids are widely used as an in vitro assay for characterising the dynamics and response to treatment of different cancer cell lines. Their popularity is largely due to the reproducible manner in which spheroids grow: the diffusion of nutrients and oxygen from the surrounding culture medium, and their consumption by tumour cells, causes proliferation to be localised at the spheroid boundary. As the spheroid grows, cells at the spheroid centre may become hypoxic and die, forming a necrotic core. The pressure created by the localisation of tumour cell proliferation and death generates an cellular flow of tumour cells from the spheroid rim towards its core. Experiments by Dorie et al. showed that this flow causes inert microspheres to infiltrate into tumour spheroids via advection from the spheroid surface, by adding microbeads to the surface of tumour spheroids and observing the distribution over time. We use an off-lattice hybrid agent-based model to re-assess these experiments and establish the extent to which the spatio-temporal data generated by microspheres can be used to infer kinetic parameters associated with the tumour spheroids that they infiltrate. Variation in these parameters, such as the rate of tumour cell proliferation or sensitivity to hypoxia, can produce spheroids with similar bulk growth dynamics but differing internal compositions (the proportion of the tumour which is proliferating, hypoxic/quiescent and necrotic/nutrient-deficient). We use this model to show that the types of experiment conducted by Dorie et al. could be used to infer spheroid composition and parameters associated with tumour cell lines such as their sensitivity to hypoxia or average rate of proliferation, and note that these observations cannot be conducted within previous continuum models of microbead infiltration into tumour spheroids as they rely on resolving the trajectories of individual microbeads.

Tumour spheroids are an experimental assay used to characterise the dynamics and response to treatment of different cancer cell lines. Previous experiments have demonstrated that the localisation of tumour cell proliferation to the spheroid edge (due to the gradient formed by nutrient diffusing from the surrounding medium) causes cells to be pushed from the proliferative rim towards the nutrient-deficient necrotic core. This movement allows inert particles to infiltrate tumour spheroids. We use a hybrid agent-based model to reproduce this data. We show further how data from individual microbead trajectories can be used to infer the composition of simulated tumour spheroids, and to estimate model parameters pertaining to tumour cell proliferation rates and their responses to hypoxia. Since these measurements are possible using modern imaging techniques, this could motivate new experiments in which spheroid composition could be inferred by observing passive infiltration of inert particles.

Blackboard to Bedside: A Mathematical Modeling Bottom-Up Approach Toward Personalized Cancer Treatments

Cancers present with high variability across patients and tumors; thus, cancer care, in terms of disease prevention, detection, and control, can highly benefit from a personalized approach. For a comprehensive personalized oncology practice, this personalization should ideally consider data gathered from various information levels, which range from the macroscale population level down to the microscale tumor level, without omission of the central patient level. Appropriate data mined from each of these levels can significantly contribute in devising personalized treatment plans tailored to the individual patient and tumor. Mathematical models of solid tumors, combined with patient-specific tumor profiles, present a unique opportunity to personalize cancer treatments after detection using a bottom-up approach. Here, we discuss how information harvested from mathematical models and from corresponding in silico experiments can be implemented in preclinical and clinical applications. To conceptually illustrate the power of these models, one such model is presented, and various pertinent tumor and treatment scenarios are demonstrated in silico. The presented model, specifically a multiscale, hybrid cellular automaton, has been fully validated in vitro using multiple cell-line-specific data. We discuss various insights provided by this model and other models like it and their role in designing predictive tools that are both patient, and tumor specific. After refinement and parametrization with appropriate data, such in silico tools have the potential to be used in a clinical setting to aid in treatment protocols and decision making.

Applications of Nonlinear Programming to the Optimization of Fractionated Protocols in Cancer Radiotherapy

The present work of review collects and evidences the main results of our previous papers on the optimization of fractionated radiotherapy protocols. The problem under investigation is presented here in a unitary framework as a nonlinear programming application that aims to determine the optimal schemes of dose fractionation commonly used in external beam radiotherapy. The radiation responses of tumor and normal tissues are described by means of the linear quadratic model. We formulate a nonlinear, non-convex optimization problem including two quadratic constraints to limit the collateral normal tissue damages and linear box constraints on the fractional dose sizes. The general problem is decomposed into two subproblems: (1) analytical determination of the optimal fraction dose sizes as a function of the model parameters for arbitrarily fixed treatment lengths; and (2) numerical determination of the optimal fraction number, and of the optimal treatment time, in different parameter settings. After establishing the boundedness of the optimal number of fractions, we investigate by numerical simulation the optimal solution behavior for experimentally meaningful parameter ranges, recognizing the crucial role of some parameters, such as the radiosensitivity ratio, in determining the optimality of hypo- or equi-fractionated treatments. Our results agree with findings of the theoretical and clinical literature.

Numerical simulation of normal and cancer cells' populations with fractional derivative under radiotherapy

Background This paper presents a numerical simulation of normal and cancer cells' population dynamics during radiotherapy. The model used for the simulation was the improved cancer treatment model with radiotherapy. The model simulated the population changes during a fractionated cancer treatment process. The results gave the final populations of the cells, which provided the final volumes of the tumor and normal cells. Method The improved model was obtained by integrating the previous cancer treatment model with the Caputo fractional derivative. In addition, the cells' population decay due to radiation was accounted for by coupling the linear-quadratic model into the improved model. The simulation of the treatment process was done with numerical variables, numerical parameters, and radiation parameters. The numerical variables include the populations of the cells and the time of treatment. The numerical parameters were the model factors which included the proliferation rates of cells, competition coefficients of cells, and perturbation constant for normal cells. The radiation parameters were clinical data based on the treatment procedure. The numerical parameters were obtained from the previous literature while the numerical variables and radiation parameters, which were clinical data, were obtained from reported data of four cancer patients treated with radiotherapy. The four cancer patients had tumor volumes of 28.4 cm³, 18.8 cm³, 30.6 cm³, and 12.6 cm³ and were treated with different treatment plans and a fractionated dose of 1.8 Gy each. The initial populations of cells were obtained by using the tumor volumes. The computer simulations were done with MATLAB. Results The final volumes of the tumors, from the results of the simulations, were 5.67 cm³, 4.36 cm³, 5.74 cm³, and 6.15 cm³ while the normal cells' volumes were 28.17 cm³, 18.68 cm³, 30.34 cm³, and 12.54 cm³. The powers of the derivatives were 0.16774, 0.16557, 0.16835, and 0.16. A variance-based sensitivity analysis was done to corroborate the model with the clinical data. The result showed that the most sensitive factors were the power of the derivative and the cancer cells' proliferation rate. Conclusion The model provided information concerning the status of treatments and can also predict outcomes of other treatment plans.

Optimal modality selection in external beam radiotherapy

The goal in external beam radiotherapy (EBRT) for cancer is to maximize damage to the tumour while limiting toxic effects on the organs-at-risk. EBRT can be delivered via different modalities such as photons, protons and neutrons. The choice of an optimal modality depends on the anatomy of the irradiated area and the relative physical and biological properties of the modalities under consideration. There is no single universally dominant modality. We present the first-ever mathematical formulation of the optimal modality selection problem. We show that this problem can be tackled by solving the Karush-Kuhn-Tucker conditions of optimality, which reduce to an analytically tractable quartic equation. We perform numerical experiments to gain insights into the effect of biological and physical properties on the choice of an optimal modality or combination of modalities.

Mechanistic modelling of prostate-specific antigen dynamics shows potential for personalized prediction of radiation therapy outcome

External beam radiation therapy is a widespread treatment for prostate cancer. The ensuing patient follow-up is based on the evolution of the prostate-specific antigen (PSA). Serum levels of PSA decay due to the radiation-induced death of tumour cells and cancer recurrence usually manifest as a rising PSA. The current definition of biochemical relapse requires that PSA reaches nadir and starts increasing, which delays the use of further treatments. Also, these methods do not account for the post-radiation tumour dynamics that may contain early information on cancer recurrence. Here, we develop three mechanistic models of post-radiation PSA evolution. Our models render superior fits of PSA data in a patient cohort and provide a biological justification for the most common empirical formulation of PSA dynamics. We also found three model-based prognostic variables: the proliferation rate of the survival fraction, the ratio of radiation-induced cell death rate to the survival proliferation rate, and the time to PSA nadir since treatment termination. We argue that these markers may enable the early identification of biochemical relapse, which would permit physicians to subsequently adapt patient monitoring to optimize the detection and treatment of cancer recurrence.

Modeling the effect of intratumoral heterogeneity of radiosensitivity on tumor response over the course of fractionated radiation therapy

Background

Standard radiobiology theory of radiation response assumes a uniform innate radiosensitivity of tumors. However, experimental data show that there is significant intratumoral heterogeneity of radiosensitivity. Therefore, a model with heterogeneity was developed and tested using existing experimental data to show the potential effects from the presence of an intratumoral distribution of radiosensitivity on radiation therapy response over a protracted radiation therapy treatment course.

Methods

The standard radiation response curve was modified to account for a distribution of radiosensitivity, and for variations in the repopulation rates of the tumor cell subpopulations. Experimental data from the literature were incorporated to determine the boundaries of the model. The proposed model was then used to show the changes in radiosensitivity of the tumor during treatment, and the effects of fraction size, α/β ratio and variation of the repopulation rates of tumor cells.

Results

In the presence of an intratumoral distribution of radiosensitivity, there is rapid selection of radiation-resistant cells over a course of fractionated radiation therapy. Standard treatment fractionation regimes result in the near-complete replacement of the initial population of sensitive cells with a population of more resistant cells. Further, as treatment progresses, the tumor becomes more resistant to further radiation treatment, making each fractional dose less efficacious. A wider initial distribution induces increased radiation resistance. Hypofractionation is more efficient in a heterogeneous tumor, with increased cell kill for biologically equivalent doses, while inducing less resistance. The model also shows that a higher growth rate in resistant cells can account for the accelerated repopulation that is seen during the clinical treatment of patients.

Conclusions

Modeling of tumor cell survival with radiosensitivity heterogeneity alters the predicted tumor response, and explains the induction of radiation resistance by radiation treatment, the development of accelerated repopulation, and the potential beneficial effects of hypofractionation. Tumor response to treatment may be better predicted by assaying for the distribution of radiosensitivity, or the extreme of the radiosensitivity, rather than measuring the initial, general radiation sensitivity of the untreated tumor.

Illuminating the Numbers: Integrating Mathematical Models to Optimize Photomedicine Dosimetry and Combination Therapies

Cancer photomedicine offers unique mechanisms for inducing local tumor damage with the potential to stimulate local and systemic anti-tumor immunity. Optically-active nanomedicine offers these features as well as spatiotemporal control of tumor-focused drug release to realize synergistic combination therapies. Achieving quantitative dosimetry is a major challenge, and dosimetry is fundamental to photomedicine for personalizing and tailoring therapeutic regimens to specific patients and anatomical locations. The challenge of dosimetry is perhaps greater for photomedicine than many standard therapies given the complexity of light delivery and light-tissue interactions as well as the resulting photochemistry responsible for tumor damage and drug-release, in addition to the usual intricacies of therapeutic agent delivery. An emerging multidisciplinary approach in oncology utilizes mathematical and computational models to iteratively and quantitively analyze complex dosimetry, and biological response parameters. These models are parameterized by preclinical and clinical observations and then tested against previously unseen data. Such calibrated and validated models can be deployed to simulate treatment doses, protocols, and combinations that have not yet been experimentally or clinically evaluated and can provide testable optimal treatment outcomes in a practical workflow. Here, we foresee the utility of these computational approaches to guide adaptive therapy, and how mathematical models might be further developed and integrated as a novel methodology to guide precision photomedicine.

Mathematical modelling of a hypoxia-regulated oncolytic virus delivered by tumour-associated macrophages

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A continuum model of macrophages releasing an oncolytic virus within a tumour spheroid.

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Predictive modelling of this treatment given in combination with radiotherapy.

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Investigation into how radiotherapy and oncolytic virotherapy should be scheduled.

Tumour hypoxia has long presented a challenge for cancer therapy: Poor vascularisation in hypoxic regions hinders both the delivery of chemotherapeutic agents and the response to radiotherapy, and hypoxic cancer cells that survive treatment can trigger tumour regrowth after treatment has ended. Tumour-associated macrophages are attractive vehicles for drug delivery because they localise in hypoxic areas of the tumour. In this paper, we derive a mathematical model for the infiltration of an in vitro tumour spheroid by macrophages that have been engineered to release an oncolytic adenovirus under hypoxic conditions. We use this model to predict the efficacy of treatment schedules in which radiotherapy and the engineered macrophages are given in combination. Our work suggests that engineered macrophages should be introduced immediately after radiotherapy for maximum treatment efficacy. Our model provides a framework that may guide future experiments to determine how multiple rounds of radiotherapy and macrophage virotherapy should be coordinated to maximise therapeutic responses.