Multi-stage Vector-Borne Zoonoses Models: A Global Analysis

Global analysis of multi-host and multi-vector epidemic models

We formulate a multi-group and multi-vector epidemic model in which hosts' dynamics is captured by staged-progression S E I R framework and the dynamics of vectors is captured by an SI framework. The proposed model describes the evolution of a class of zoonotic infections where the pathogen is shared by m host species and transmitted by p arthropod vector species. In each host, the infectious period is structured into n stages with a corresponding infectiousness parameter to each vector species. We determine the basic reproduction number R 0 2 ( m , n , p ) and investigate the dynamics of the systems when this threshold is less or greater than one. We show that the dynamics of the multi-host, multi-stage, and multi-vector system is completely determined by the basic reproduction number and the structure of the host-vector network configuration. Particularly, we prove that the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable (GAS) whenever R 0 2 ( m , n , p ) < 1 , and a unique strongly endemic equilibrium exists and is GAS if R 0 2 ( m , n , p ) > 1 and the host-vector configuration is irreducible. That is, either the disease dies out or persists in all hosts and all vector species.