Are we on brink of a second COVID-19 wave in Italy? Let's look at Google Trends

Language Barriers to Online Search Interest for COVID-19: A Global Infodemiological Study

Background

Implementation of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic control measures requires the engagement and participation of the public in a synchronized manner. Language may be a barrier to captivating public interest in a concerted manner. The relative volume of English and non-English COVID-19-related web searches estimate public interest among English and Non-English “searchers,” respectively. Asynchrony between English and non-English search interest may suggest language-related lapses in public engagement. Addressing these lapses may improve public health communications. In this study, we aimed to describe the distribution and temporal trends in the evolution of English and non-English online search interest for COVID-19 and to identify lags between English and non-English search interest.

Methodology

Search interest data (Baidu Index for China, Google Trends for other countries) was queried for the keywords “coronavirus,” “covid 19,” and their non-English equivalents between January 1, 2019, and September 30, 2020, for each country (n = 230). Daily total, English, and non-English search interest were recorded. Search Interest variables were described at global, regional, and country levels. The cross-correlation function was used to identify lags between English and non-English search interest at global, regional, and country levels.

Results

Globally, 9.69% of total searches relating to COVID-19 utilized non-English keywords. Among included regions, 64.7% (11/17) had significant non-English interest. Central Asia had the highest proportion of non-English interest (81.13% of total interest), followed by Eastern Europe (56.17%), Eastern Asia, Western Asia, and Northern Africa (all over 20%). Among included countries, 33.5% (77/230) had significant non-English interest. Cross-correlation function identified significant lags between English and non-English Interest in six regions (median lag [interquartile range, IQR]: -0.5 [6.00] days) and 24 countries (median lag [IQR]: -1 [4.25] days).

Conclusions

Non-English keywords contribute substantially to searches relating to COVID-19 in certain countries and regions. Numerous locations exhibit significant lags between English and non-English search interest, suggesting language-related discrepancies in the interest for COVID-19. Further research is required to address the root cause of these lags.

Lombardy, Northern Italy: COVID-19 second wave less severe and deadly than the first? A preliminary investigation

BACKGROUND

The much-heralded second wave of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has arrived in Italy. Right now, one of the main questions about COVID-19 is whether the second wave is less severe and deadly than the first wave. In order to answer this challenging question, we decided to evaluate the chest X-ray (CXR) severity of COVID-19 pneumonia, the mechanical ventilation (MV) use, the patient outcome, and certain clinical/laboratory data during the second wave and compare them with those of the first wave.

METHODS

During the two COVID-19 waves two independent groups of hospitalised patients were selected. The first group consisted of the first 100 COVID-19 patients admitted to our hospital during the first wave. The second group consisted of another 100 consecutive COVID-19 patients admitted to our hospital during the second wave. We enlisted only Caucasian male patients over the age of fifty for whom the final outcome was available. For each patient, the CXR severity of COVID-19 pneumonia, the MV use, the patient outcome, comorbidities, corticosteroid use, and C-reactive protein (CRP) levels were considered. Nonparametric statistical tests were used to compare the data obtained from the two waves.

RESULTS

The CXR severity of COVID-19 pneumonia, the in-hospital mortality, and CRP levels were significantly higher in the first wave than in the second wave (p ≤ .041). Although not statistically significant, the frequency of MV use was higher in the first wave.

CONCLUSIONS

This preliminary investigation seems to confirm that the COVID-19 second wave is less severe and deadly than the first wave.