Comparison of strategies for setting intervention thresholds for Chinese postmenopausal women using the FRAX model

Construction and verification of risk prediction model of osteoporotic fractures in patients with osteoporosis in China

Objective

To explore the influencing factors of osteoporotic fractures (OPF) in patients with osteoporosis, construct a prediction model, and verify the model internally and externally, so as to provide reference for early screening and intervention of OPF in patients with osteoporosis.

Methods

Osteoporosis patients in the First Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University were selected, and the medical records of patients were consulted through the Hospital Information System (HIS) and the data management platform of osteoporosis patients, so as to screen patients who met the criteria for admission and discharge and collect data. SPSS 26.0 software was used for single factor analysis to screen statistically significant variables (p < 0.05). The influencing factors of OPF were determined by multivariate analysis, and a binary Logistic regression model was established according to the results of multivariate analysis. Hosmer-Lemeshow (H-L) goodness of fit and receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) were used to test the model's efficiency, and Stata 16.0 software was used to verify the Bootstrap model, draw the model calibration curve, clinical applicability curve and nomogram.

Results

In this study, the data of modeling set and verification set were 1,435 and 580, respectively. There were 493 (34.4%) cases with OPF and 942 (65.6%) cases without OPF in the modeling set. There were 204 (35.2%) cases with OPF and 376 (64.8%) cases without OPF. The variables with statistically significant differences in univariate analysis are Age, BMI, History of falls, Usage of glucocorticoid, ALP, Serum Calcium, BMD of lumbar, BMD of feminist neck, T value of feminist neck, BMD of total hip and T value of total hip. The area under ROC curve of the risk prediction model constructed this time is 0.817 [95%CI (0.794 ~ 0.839)], which shows that the model has a good discrimination in predicting the occurrence of OPF. The optimal threshold of the model is 0.373, the specificity is 0.741, the sensitivity is 0.746, and the AUC values of the modeling set and the verification set are 0.8165 and 0.8646, respectively. The results of Hosmer and Lemeshow test are modeling set: (χ2 = 6.551, p = 0.586); validation set: [(χ2 = 8.075, p = 0.426)]. The calibration curve of the model shows that the reference line of the fitted curve and the calibration curve is highly coincident, and the model has a good calibration degree for predicting the occurrence of fractures. The net benefit value of the risk model of osteoporosis patients complicated with OPF is high, which shows that the model is effective.

Conclusion

In this study, a OPF risk prediction model is established and its prediction efficiency is verified, which can help identify the high fracture risk subgroup of osteoporosis patients in order to choose stronger intervention measures and management.

Fracture risk prediction in old Chinese people-a narrative review

With aging, the burden of osteoporotic fracture (OF) increases substantially, while China is expected to carry the greatest part in the future. The risk of fracture varies greatly across racial groups and geographic regions, and systematically organized evidence on the potential predictors for fracture risk is needed for Chinese. This review briefly introduces the epidemiology of OF and expands on the predictors and predictive tools for the risk of OF, as well as the challenges for their potential translation in the old Chinese population. There are regional differences of fracture incidence among China. The fracture incidences in Hong Kong and Taiwan have decreased in recent years, while it is still increasing in mainland China. Although the application of dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) is limited among old Chinese in the mainland, bone mineral density (BMD) by DXA has a predictive value similar to that worldwide. Other non-DXA modalities, especially heel QUS, are helpful in assessing bone health. The fracture risk assessment tool (FRAX) has a good discrimination ability for OFs, especially the FRAX with BMD. And some clinical factors have added value to FRAX, which has been verified in old Chinese. In addition, although the application of the osteoporosis self-assessment tool for Asians (OSTA) in Chinese needs further validation, it may help identify high-risk populations in areas with limited resources. Moreover, the translation use of the muscle quality and genetic or serum biomarkers in fracture prediction needs further works. More applicable and targeted fracture risk predictors and tools are still needed for the old Chinese population.

Setting the new FRAX reference threshold without bone mineral density in Chinese postmenopausal women

PURPOSE

Despite the large number of osteoporosis patients in China, the diagnosis and treatment rates remain low. The Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX) can be used to effectively evaluate fracture risk. In this study, we explored the Chinese-specific thresholds of FRAX without the T-score.

METHODS

In all, 264 postmenopausal women aged > 50 years were randomly recruited from community-medical centers. All subjects completed self-reported questionnaires, BMD measurements, and spinal radiographs. The 10-year hip and major osteoporotic fracture risks were calculated by FRAX. A new threshold for both 10-year hip and major osteoporotic fracture risk was explored with receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis.

RESULTS

Overall, 92 subjects were diagnosed with osteoporosis. Among them, 14 participants with T-score > - 2.5 were diagnosed with osteoporosis based on clinical fractures. ROC analysis showed the cut-off value of the 10-year hip osteoporotic fracture for detecting osteoporosis was 0.95%, while that of 10-year major osteoporotic fracture was 4.95%. The sensitivity and specificity of the 10-year hip osteoporotic fracture probability for detecting osteoporosis were 0.86 and 0.59, respectively, while the guideline-recommended threshold had a sensitivity of 0.49 and specificity of 0.83. The sensitivity and specificity of the 10-year major osteoporotic fractures with the new threshold were 0.76 and 0.69, respectively, while the recommended threshold had a sensitivity of 0 and specificity of 1.

CONCLUSION

Current guideline-recommended FRAX thresholds without BMD showed low sensitivity. Therefore, 10-year osteoporotic hip fracture probability ≥ 0.95% and 10-year osteoporotic major fracture probability ≥ 4.95% are recommended as the new thresholds.

Decreased lower-extremity muscle performance is associated with decreased hip bone mineral density and increased estimated fracture risk in community-dwelling postmenopausal women

The present study demonstrated that the lower-extremity muscle performance in Chinese community-dwelling postmenopausal women with lower bone mineral density (BMD) was positively associated with hip BMD and negatively associated with estimated fracture risk.

PURPOSE

Postmenopausal women are at high risk for osteoporotic fractures. It has been shown that decreased lower-extremity muscle performance is associated with osteoporotic fractures. However, the relationship between muscle performance and bone mineral density in postmenopausal women is inconsistent in the literature. The present study was to investigate the relationship between lower-extremity muscle performance and BMD or estimated fracture risk in community-dwelling postmenopausal women.

METHODS

Two hundred forty-seven postmenopausal women aged 50-85 years were recruited in the study. The short physical performance battery (SPPB) tool including the chair stand test (CST), gait speed test (GST), and balance test (BT) was used to determine lower-extremity functioning and the CST, GST, BT, and SPPB total scores were recorded. The BMD of lumbar spine (LSBMD), femoral neck (FNBMD), and total hip (THBMD) were measured by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA), and the vertebral fracture was confirmed by lateral spine X-rays radiographs. In addition, patients' 10-year estimated major osteoporotic fracture risk (MOFR) and hip fracture risk (HFR) were assessed by the Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX). Linear regression analysis was used to analyze the association between muscle performance and BMD.

RESULTS

The CST, GST, and SPPB total scores were positively associated with LSBMD, THBMD, and FNBMD before adjustment for age, height, and weight. The SPPB total score was positively associated with FNBMD and THBMD, but not with LSBMD after adjustment for age, height, and weight. The BT score was positively associated with FNBMD and THBMD, but not with LSBMD before and after adjustment for age, height, and weight. Moreover, the CST, GST, BT, and SPPB scores were negatively associated with the FRAX score.

CONCLUSION

The lower-extremity muscle performance in community-dwelling postmenopausal women is positively associated with FNBMD and THBMD and negatively associated with the FRAX score.

Liraglutide Promotes Osteoblastic Differentiation in MC3T3-E1 Cells by ERK5 Pathway

Liraglutide is a glucagon-like peptide-1 analogue widely used in the treatment of type 2 diabetes mellitus. However, the effects of liraglutide on osteoblast proliferation and differentiation in MC3T3-E1 cells have not been fully elucidated. In the present study, the promoting effects of liraglutide were investigated in MC3T3-E1 cells. The results indicated that cell viability was affected following the treatment of the cells with different concentrations of liraglutide (0, 10, 100, and 1000 nM) at different time periods of culture (24, 48, and 72 h). Moreover, the activity levels of alkaline phosphatase and the number of mineralized nodules in MC3T3-E1 cells were significantly increased following treatment with 100 nM liraglutide. The mRNA and protein levels of Col-1, OPG, and OCN in MC3T3-E1 cells were also markedly increased following 100 nM liraglutide treatment compared with those of the control group. The expression levels of the ERK5 signaling pathway key proteins (MEK5, p-ERK5, ERK5, and NUR77) were increased following liraglutide treatment in MC3T3-E1 cells, and the gene expression levels of the ERK5 signaling pathway were also elevated. Moreover, the ERK5 inhibitor XMD8-92 significantly decreased the expression levels of p-ERK5 and NUR77 as well as the proliferation of osteoblasts. However, these changes could be rescued by liraglutide to some extent. Therefore, these results revealed that liraglutide may promote osteoblastic differentiation and proliferation in MC3T3-E1 cells via the activation of the ERK5 signaling pathway.