Risk Score Model for Liver Transplant Outcomes after Preoperative Locoregional Therapy for Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Role of Locoregional Therapy on Survival After Living Donor Liver Transplantation for Hepatocellular Carcinoma--Experience from a High-volume Center

Background

Locoregional therapy (LRT) in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) before liver transplantation (LT) has a role in improving the tumor biology and post-LT survival outcome apart from downstaging and bridging. We retrospectively analyzed our database of adult living donor liver transplants (LDLT) for HCC, to compare the survival outcomes in Group-1 (upfront-LT, HCC within Milan/UCSF/AFP<1000 ng/ml) and Group-2 (LT post-LRT, HCC beyond UCSF/irrespective of tumor burden with AFP>1000 ng/ml). We also explored the risk factors for recurrence on follow-up.

Methods

A study group (n = 506, Group-1-348, Group-2 = 158) of patients with HCC who underwent LDLT between July 2006 and December 2022, excluding incidental HCC (n = 42), patients with other histology (n = 13) and in-hospital mortality (n = 43), were analyzed. Study cohort (n = 341), after propensity score matching, was analyzed for survival outcomes (overall survival, OS and disease-free survival, DFS) and risk factors for recurrence between Group-1 (n = 156) and Group-2 (n = 158).

Results

Group-2 exhibited a trend towards better mean OS and DFS compared to Group-1 (OS-133 vs. 107-months, P = NS, DFS-118 vs. 102-months, P = NS). Long-term OS (10-year) for those within Milan and UCSF criteria was superior in Group-2, P = NS. Complete pathological response (cPR) after LRT (46.8%), significantly improved OS and DFS compared to those with partial response and stable disease; 152 vs. 94 vs. 49 months, P = 0.001, and 147 vs. 75 vs. 41 months, P = 0.006, respectively. Recipient age, size of tumor, and pre-LT serum alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) were independent predictors of cPR. Independent risk factors for recurrence included pre-LT AFP, tumors beyond UCSF, perineural invasion, and high-grade tumors.

Conclusion

Locoregional therapy in HCC offers significantly better OS and DFS in those who had a complete pathological response. Risk factors for recurrence post-LT were AFP level, beyond UCSF tumors, and high-grade HCC with PNI on histology.

Living donor liver transplantation for advanced hepatocellular carcinoma including macrovascular invasion

BACKGROUND

The indications for liver transplantation (LT) in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) continue to evolve. The aim of this study was to report outcomes in patients who underwent living donor liver transplantation (LDLT) for HCC outside traditional criteria including macrovascular invasion (MVI).

METHODS

We reviewed outcomes in patients who met the University of California San Francisco (UCSF) criteria (n = 159) and our center-specific criteria (UCSF+) (largest tumor diameter ≤ 10 cm, any tumor number, AFP ≤ 1000 ng/ml) (n = 58). We also assessed outcomes in patients with MVI (n = 27).

RESULTS

The median follow was 28 (10.6-42.7) months. The 5 year overall survival and risk of recurrence (RR) in the UCSF and UCSF + group was 71% vs 69% (P = 0.7) and 13% vs 36% (P = 0.1) respectively. When patients with AFP > 600 ng/ml were excluded from the UCSF + group, RR was 27% (P = 0.3). Among patients with MVI who had downstaging (DS), 4/5(80%) in low-risk group (good response and AFP ≤ 100 ng/ml) and 2/10 (20%) in the high-risk group (poor response or AFP > 100 ng/ml) were alive at the last follow-up. When DS was not feasible, 3/3 (100%) in the low-risk group (AFP ≤ 100 ng/ml + Vp1-2 MVI) and 1/9 (9.1%) in the high-risk group (AFP > 100 or Vp3 MVI) were alive. The 5 year OS in the low-risk MVI group was 85% (P = 0.003).

CONCLUSION

With inclusion of AFP, response to downstaging and degree of MVI, acceptable survival can be achieved with LDLT for HCC outside traditional criteria.

Liver transplantation for hepatocellular carcinoma: Improving eligibility without compromising outcomes

Background

In the context of liver transplantation for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), traditional transplant criteria appear restrictive. The objective of the current study was to determine risk factors for recurrence and improve transplant eligibility in patients with HCC.

Materials and methods

This was a retrospective study of patients who underwent living donor liver transplant (LDLT) for HCC (n = 219). Largest tumor diameter, tumor number, AFP and neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio were assessed. Multivariate analysis was performed to develop risk scores. The new model was compared with seven previously published transplant criteria using receiver operator curves.

Results

Largest tumor size >3.7 cm [HR:2.6, P = 0.02], and AFP > 600 ng/ml [HR:4.7, P = 0.001] were independent predictors of recurrence. Patients with risk scores of 0, 1–3, 4–6 and 7–9 had recurrence rate of 5.9%, 12.5%, 25% and 58.4% respectively. When compared with Milan criteria, Metro ticket 2.0, AFP model and Samsung criteria; transplant eligibility increased by 31.5%, 22.9%, 8.7%, and 7% respectively. Recurrence rate with the current model was 16/199 (8%) (P < 0.0001) and was comparable with other transplant criteria (6.9–9.1%). On ROC analysis, only Milan criteria (AUC = 0.7, P = 0.001) and the current model (AUC = 0.66, P = 0.01) showed significance for recurrence. All patients with high risk scores within Milan criteria had recurred at 3 years (P = 0.03).

Conclusions

Low AFP can be used to select patients for LDLT outside traditional criteria for HCC, with comparable recurrence rates.

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There is an unmet need to expand transplant pool for hepatocellular carcinoma.

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We developed a model, based on tumor size cutoff of 3.7 cm, any tumor number, and AFP cutoff of 600 ng/ml; and compared it with other transplant criteria.

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There was considerable expansion in transplant pool with comparable outcomes.