Time-to-Death and Health Care Expenditure: Evidence from China

Implications for household health expenditure in China's ageing population: based on Red Herring hypothesis

The rising healthcare costs due to population aging present a complex issue, with debate centering on whether these costs are driven by aging or end-of-life care. This study examines healthcare expenditures in Chinese households using data from the 2005 and 2018 Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey. By applying the Heckman select model and a two-part model, the research innovatively includes time to death, income, social security and health level in the benchmark regression in order to validate the recent some new Red Herring hypothesis. The findings show that time to death is the primary determinant of healthcare expenditures, while the effect of aging is minimal. Income, social security, and health status also significantly influence health expenditure, but they do not function as Red Herring variables.

Comparison of functional disabilities, place of death and end-of-life medical expenditures among centenarians and non-centenarians in China: a series of cross-sectional studies

BACKGROUND

Long-term and end-of-life (EOL) care for older adults has become a global concern due to extended longevity, which is generally accompanied by increased rates of disability. However, differences in the rates of disability in activities of daily living (ADLs), place of death and medical expenditures during the last year of life between centenarians and non-centenarians in China remain unknown. This study aims to fill this research gap to inform policy efforts for the capacity-building of long-term and EOL care for the oldest-old, especially for centenarians in China.

METHODS

Data from 20,228 decedents were derived from the 1998-2018 Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey. Weighted logistic and Tobit regression models were used to estimate differences in the prevalence of functional disability, rate of death in hospitals and EOL medical expenditures by age groups among oldest-old individuals.

RESULTS

Of the 20,228 samples, 12,537 oldest-old individuals were female (weighted, 58.6%, hereafter); 3,767 were octogenarians, 8,260 were nonagenarians, and 8,201 were centenarians. After controlling for other covariates, nonagenarians and centenarians experienced a greater prevalence of full dependence (average marginal differences [95% CI]: 2.7% [0%, 5.3%]; 3.8% [0.3%, 7.9%]) and partial dependence (6.9% [3.4%, 10.3%]; 15.1% [10.5%, 19.8%]) but a smaller prevalence of partial independence (-8.9% [-11.6%, -6.2%]; -16.0% [-19.1%, -12.8%]) in ADLs than octogenarians. Nonagenarians and centenarians were less likely to die in hospitals (-3.0% [-4.7%, -1.2%]; -4.3% [-6.3%, -2.2%]). Additionally, nonagenarians and centenarians reported more medical expenditures during the last year of life than octogenarians with no statistically significant differences.

CONCLUSION

The oldest-old experienced an increased prevalence of full and partial dependence in ADLs with increasing age and reported a decline in the prevalence of full independence. Compared with octogenarians, nonagenarians and centenarians were less likely to die in hospitals. Therefore, future policy efforts are warranted to optimise the service provision of long-term and EOL care by age patterns for the oldest-old population in China.

The ‘Red Herring’ Hypothesis: Some Theory and New Evidence

The ‘red herring’ hypothesis (RHH) claims that apart from income and medical technology, proximity to death rather than age constitutes the main determinant of healthcare expenditure (HCE). This paper seeks to underpin the RHH with some theory to derive new predictions also for a rationed setting, and to test them against published empirical evidence. One set comprising ten predictions uses women’s longer life expectancy as an indicator of the difference in time to death in their favor. Out of 28 testing opportunities drawn from the published evidence, in the case of no rationing seven out of eleven result in full and two in partial confirmation; in the case of rationing, twelve out of 17 result in full and one in partial confirmation. The other set, containing 35 testing opportunities, concerns the age profile of HCE. In the case of no rationing, seven out of twelve result in full and four in partial confirmation; in the case of rationing, eleven out of 23 in full and nine in partial confirmation. There are but ten contradictions in total. Overall, the new tests of the RHH can be said to receive a good deal of empirical support, both from countries and settings with and without rationing.