de Hartog-Keyzer JML, Pop VJM, Rodwell L, Nijveldt R, El Messaoudi S. Prediction of cardiovascular events in the elderly primary care patient with hypertension: the value of additional laboratory testing, ECG and echocardiography.
Br J Gen Pract 2024;
74:BJGP.2023.0328. [PMID:
38359949 PMCID:
PMC10962521 DOI:
10.3399/bjgp.2023.0328]
[Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/03/2023] [Accepted: 01/03/2024] [Indexed: 02/17/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND
A strict risk stratification identifying hypertensive patients at risk for future cardiovascular disease in primary care would be desirable.
AIM
To investigate the association between elevated BNP, LVH on ECG, and LVH on echocardiogram and the development of cardiovascular events (CVE), especially heart failure and all cause-mortality (ACM), in a hypertension primary care population without symptoms of heart failure.
DESIGN AND SETTING
Prospective cohort study in five Dutch general practices between 2010-2012 and 2020.
METHOD
530 patients (60-85 years) underwent laboratory testing, ECGs and echocardiograms at baseline. The incidence of new CVEs and ACM at up to nine years' follow-up was recorded by data extraction from the digital information systems.
RESULTS
Among the 530 participants, 31 (5.8%) developed a coronary event, 44 (8.3%) a cerebrovascular accident, 53 (10.0%) atrial fibrillation, 23 (4.3%) heart failure and 66 (12.5%) died. Cox regression analyses, adjusting for relevant Framingham covariates showed that elevated BNP increased the risk of ACM, CVE and specifically heart failure independently by respectively, 44% (HR 1.44; 95% CI [1.07-1.94], p=-0.017), 45% (HR 1.45; 95% CI [1.15-1.82], p= 0.002) and 288% (HR 3.88, CI 95% 2.13-7.10, p<0.001). LVH on ECG increased the risk of ACM independently by 108% (HR 2.08; 95% CI [1.14-3.81], p=0.017). LVH either on ECG and/or echo increased the risk of heart failure independently by 309% (HR 4.09; 95% CI [1.34-12.49], p=0.014).
CONCLUSION
In primary care hypertensive patients, BNP seems to be an important marker predicting future cardiovascular events, especially heart failure, as well as all-cause death.
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