Predicting the spread of influenza epidemics by analyzing twitter messages

Dynamic topic modeling of twitter data during the COVID-19 pandemic

In an effort to gauge the global pandemic’s impact on social thoughts and behavior, it is important to answer the following questions: (1) What kinds of topics are individuals and groups vocalizing in relation to the pandemic? (2) Are there any noticeable topic trends and if so how do these topics change over time and in response to major events? In this paper, through the advanced Sequential Latent Dirichlet Allocation model, we identified twelve of the most popular topics present in a Twitter dataset collected over the period spanning April 3^rd to April 13^th, 2020 in the United States and discussed their growth and changes over time. These topics were both robust, in that they covered specific domains, not simply events, and dynamic, in that they were able to change over time in response to rising trends in our dataset. They spanned politics, healthcare, community, and the economy, and experienced macro-level growth over time, while also exhibiting micro-level changes in topic composition. Our approach differentiated itself in both scale and scope to study the emerging topics concerning COVID-19 at a scale that few works have been able to achieve. We contributed to the cross-sectional field of urban studies and big data. Whereas we are optimistic towards the future, we also understand that this is an unprecedented time that will have lasting impacts on individuals and society at large, impacting not only the economy or geo-politics, but human behavior and psychology. Therefore, in more ways than one, this research is just beginning to scratch the surface of what will be a concerted research effort into studying the history and repercussions of COVID-19.

Characterizing HIV discussions and engagement on Twitter

The novel settings provided by social media facilitate users to seek and share information on a wide array of subjects, including healthcare and wellness. Analyzing health-related opinions and discussions on these platforms complement traditional public health surveillance systems to support timely and effective interventions. This study aims to characterize the HIV-related conversations on Twitter by identifying the prevalent topics and the key events and actors involved in these discussions. Through Twitter API, we collected tweets containing the hashtag #HIV for a one-year period. After pre-processing the collected data, we conducted engagement analysis, temporal analysis, and topic modeling algorithm on the analytical sample (n = 122,807). Tweets by HIV/AIDS/LGBTQ activists and physicians received the highest level of engagement. An upsurge in tweet volume and engagement was observed during global and local events such as World Aids Day and HIV/AIDS awareness and testing days for trans-genders, blacks, women, and the aged population. Eight topics were identified that include “stigma”, “prevention”, “epidemic in the developing countries”, “World Aids Day”, “treatment”, “events”, “PrEP”, and “testing”. Social media discussions offer a nuanced understanding of public opinions, beliefs, and sentiments about numerous health-related issues. The current study reports various dimensions of HIV-related posts on Twitter. Based on the findings, public health agencies and pertinent entities need to proactively use Twitter and other social media by engaging the public through involving influencers. The undertaken methodological choices may be applied to further assess HIV discourse on other popular social media platforms.

The roles of machine learning methods in limiting the spread of deadly diseases: A systematic review

Machine learning (ML) methods can be leveraged to prevent the spread of deadly infectious disease outbreak (e.g., COVID-19). This can be done by applying machine learning methods in predicting and detecting the deadly infectious disease. Most reviews did not discuss about the machine learning algorithms, datasets and performance measurements used for various applications in predicting and detecting the deadly infectious disease. In contrast, this paper outlines the literature review based on two major ways (e.g., prediction, detection) to limit the spread of deadly disease outbreaks. Hence, this study aims to investigate the state of the art, challenges and future works of leveraging ML methods to detect and predict deadly disease outbreaks according to two categories mentioned earlier. Specifically, this study provides a review on various approaches (e.g., individual and ensemble models), types of datasets, parameters or variables and performance measures used in the previous works. The literature review included all articles from journals and conference proceedings published from 2010 through 2020 in Scopus indexed databases using the search terms Predicting Disease Outbreaks and/or Detecting Disease using Machine Learning. The findings from this review focus on commonly used machine learning approaches, challenges and future works to limit the spread of deadly disease outbreaks through preventions and detections.

Effective Training Data Extraction Method to Improve Influenza Outbreak Prediction from Online News Articles: Deep Learning Model Study

Background

Each year, influenza affects 3 to 5 million people and causes 290,000 to 650,000 fatalities worldwide. To reduce the fatalities caused by influenza, several countries have established influenza surveillance systems to collect early warning data. However, proper and timely warnings are hindered by a 1- to 2-week delay between the actual disease outbreaks and the publication of surveillance data. To address the issue, novel methods for influenza surveillance and prediction using real-time internet data (such as search queries, microblogging, and news) have been proposed. Some of the currently popular approaches extract online data and use machine learning to predict influenza occurrences in a classification mode. However, many of these methods extract training data subjectively, and it is difficult to capture the latent characteristics of the data correctly. There is a critical need to devise new approaches that focus on extracting training data by reflecting the latent characteristics of the data.

Objective

In this paper, we propose an effective method to extract training data in a manner that reflects the hidden features and improves the performance by filtering and selecting only the keywords related to influenza before the prediction.

Methods

Although word embedding provides a distributed representation of words by encoding the hidden relationships between various tokens, we enhanced the word embeddings by selecting keywords related to the influenza outbreak and sorting the extracted keywords using the Pearson correlation coefficient in order to solely keep the tokens with high correlation with the actual influenza outbreak. The keyword extraction process was followed by a predictive model based on long short-term memory that predicts the influenza outbreak. To assess the performance of the proposed predictive model, we used and compared a variety of word embedding techniques.

Results

Word embedding without our proposed sorting process showed 0.8705 prediction accuracy when 50.2 keywords were selected on average. Conversely, word embedding using our proposed sorting process showed 0.8868 prediction accuracy and an improvement in prediction accuracy of 12.6%, although smaller amounts of training data were selected, with only 20.6 keywords on average.

Conclusions

The sorting stage empowers the embedding process, which improves the feature extraction process because it acts as a knowledge base for the prediction component. The model outperformed other current approaches that use flat extraction before prediction.