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Tari E, Frim L, Stolcz T, Teutsch B, Veres DS, Hegyi P, Erőss B. At admission hemodynamic instability is associated with increased mortality and rebleeding rate in acute gastrointestinal bleeding: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Therap Adv Gastroenterol 2023; 16:17562848231190970. [PMID: 37655056 PMCID: PMC10467304 DOI: 10.1177/17562848231190970] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/01/2023] [Accepted: 07/13/2023] [Indexed: 09/02/2023] Open
Abstract
Background Acute gastrointestinal bleeding (GIB) is a life-threatening event. Around 20-30% of patients with GIB will develop hemodynamic instability (HI). Objectives We aimed to quantify HI as a risk factor for the development of relevant end points in acute GIB. Design A systematic search was conducted in three medical databases in October 2021. Data sources and methods Studies of GIB patients detailing HI as a risk factor for the investigated outcomes were selected. For the overall results, pooled odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated based on a random-effects model. Subgroups were formed based on the source of bleeding. The Quality of Prognostic Studies tool was used to assess the risk of bias. Results A total of 62 studies were eligible, and 39 were included in the quantitative synthesis. HI was found to be a risk factor for both in-hospital (OR: 5.48; CI: 3.99-7.52) and 30-day mortality (OR: 3.99; CI: 3.08-5.17) in upper GIB (UGIB). HI was also associated with higher in-hospital (OR: 3.68; CI: 2.24-6.05) and 30-day rebleeding rates (OR: 4.12; 1.83-9.31) among patients with UGIB. The need for surgery was also more frequent in hemodynamically compromised UGIB patients (OR: 3.65; CI: 2.84-4.68). In the case of in-hospital mortality, the risk of bias was high for 1 (4%), medium for 13 (48%), and low for 13 (48%) of the 27 included studies. Conclusion Hemodynamically compromised patients have increased odds of all relevant untoward end points in GIB. Therefore, to improve the outcomes, adequate emergency care is crucial in HI. Registration PROSPERO registration number: CRD42021285727.
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Affiliation(s)
- Edina Tari
- Centre for Translational Medicine, Institute of Pancreatic Diseases, Semmelweis University, Budapest, Hungary
| | - Levente Frim
- Institute for Translational Medicine, Medical School, University of Pécs, Pécs, Hungary
| | - Tünde Stolcz
- Institute for Translational Medicine, Medical School, University of Pécs, Pécs, Hungary
| | - Brigitta Teutsch
- Centre for Translational Medicine, Semmelweis University, Budapest, Hungary
- Institute for Translational Medicine, Medical School, University of Pécs, Pécs, Hungary
| | - Dániel Sándor Veres
- Department of Biophysics and Radiation Biology, Centre for Translational Medicine, Semmelweis University, Budapest, Hungary
| | - Péter Hegyi
- Centre for Translational Medicine, Institute of Pancreatic Diseases, Semmelweis University, Budapest, Hungary
- Institute for Translational Medicine, Medical School, University of Pécs, Pécs, Hungary
| | - Bálint Erőss
- Centre for Translational Medicine, Institute of Pancreatic Diseases, Semmelweis University, Budapest, Hungary
- Institute for Translational Medicine, Medical School, University of Pécs, Pécs, Tömő u. 25.-29., Budapest, 1083, Hungary
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Ungureanu BS, Gheonea DI, Florescu DN, Iordache S, Cazacu SM, Iovanescu VF, Rogoveanu I, Turcu-Stiolica A. Predicting mortality in patients with nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding using machine-learning. Front Med (Lausanne) 2023; 10:1134835. [PMID: 36873879 PMCID: PMC9982090 DOI: 10.3389/fmed.2023.1134835] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/30/2022] [Accepted: 02/06/2023] [Indexed: 02/19/2023] Open
Abstract
Background Non-endoscopic risk scores, Glasgow Blatchford (GBS) and admission Rockall (Rock), are limited by poor specificity. The aim of this study was to develop an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) for the non-endoscopic triage of nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding (NVUGIB), with mortality as a primary outcome. Methods Four machine learning algorithms, namely, Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA), Quadratic Discriminant Analysis (QDA), logistic regression (LR), K-Nearest Neighbor (K-NN), were performed with GBS, Rock, Beylor Bleeding score (BBS), AIM65, and T-score. Results A total of 1,096 NVUGIB hospitalized in the Gastroenterology Department of the County Clinical Emergency Hospital of Craiova, Romania, randomly divided into training and testing groups, were included retrospectively in our study. The machine learning models were more accurate at identifying patients who met the endpoint of mortality than any of the existing risk scores. AIM65 was the most important score in the detection of whether a NVUGIB would die or not, whereas BBS had no influence on this. Also, the greater AIM65 and GBS, and the lower Rock and T-score, the higher mortality will be. Conclusion The best accuracy was obtained by the hyperparameter-tuned K-NN classifier (98%), giving the highest precision and recall on the training and testing datasets among all developed models, showing that machine learning can accurately predict mortality in patients with NVUGIB.
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Affiliation(s)
- Bogdan Silviu Ungureanu
- Department of Gastroenterology, University of Medicine and Pharmacy of Craiova, Craiova, Romania
| | - Dan Ionut Gheonea
- Department of Gastroenterology, University of Medicine and Pharmacy of Craiova, Craiova, Romania
| | - Dan Nicolae Florescu
- Department of Gastroenterology, University of Medicine and Pharmacy of Craiova, Craiova, Romania
| | - Sevastita Iordache
- Department of Gastroenterology, University of Medicine and Pharmacy of Craiova, Craiova, Romania
| | - Sergiu Marian Cazacu
- Department of Gastroenterology, University of Medicine and Pharmacy of Craiova, Craiova, Romania
| | - Vlad Florin Iovanescu
- Department of Gastroenterology, University of Medicine and Pharmacy of Craiova, Craiova, Romania
| | - Ion Rogoveanu
- Department of Gastroenterology, University of Medicine and Pharmacy of Craiova, Craiova, Romania
| | - Adina Turcu-Stiolica
- Department of Pharmacoeconomics, University of Medicine and Pharmacy of Craiova, Craiova, Romania
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Dixit VK, Sahu MK, Venkatesh V, Bhargav VY, Kumar V, Pateriya MB, Venkataraman J. Gastrointestinal Emergencies and the Role of Endoscopy. JOURNAL OF DIGESTIVE ENDOSCOPY 2022. [DOI: 10.1055/s-0042-1755303] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/07/2023] Open
Abstract
AbstractMany gastrointestinal (GI) disorders present to the emergency room with acute clinical presentations, some even life threatening. Common emergencies encountered that require urgent endoscopic interventions include GI hemorrhage (variceal and nonvariceal), foreign body ingestion, obstructive jaundice, postprocedure-related complications such as postpolypectomy bleed or perforation, etc. A major advantage of emergency endoscopy is that it is cost effective and, on many occasions, can be life-saving. The present review will highlight a practical approach on various endoscopic modalities and their use in the GI emergencies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Vinod Kumar Dixit
- Department of Gastroenterology, Institute of Medical Sciences, Banaras Hindu University, Varanasi, Uttar Pradesh, India
| | - Manoj Kumar Sahu
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatobiliary Sciences, Institute of Medical Sciences and SUM Hospital, Siksha 'O' Anusandhan (SOA) University, Bhubaneswar, Odisha, India
| | - Vybhav Venkatesh
- Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatobiliary Sciences, Institute of Medical Sciences and SUM Hospital, Siksha 'O' Anusandhan (SOA) University, Bhubaneswar, Odisha, India
| | - Varanasi Yugandhar Bhargav
- Department of Hepatology, Sri Ramachandra Institute of Higher Education and Research, Chennai, Tamil Nadu, India
| | - Vinod Kumar
- Department of Gastroenterology, Institute of Medical Sciences, Banaras Hindu University, Varanasi, Uttar Pradesh, India
| | - Mayank Bhushan Pateriya
- Department of Gastroenterology, Institute of Medical Sciences, Banaras Hindu University, Varanasi, Uttar Pradesh, India
| | - Jayanthi Venkataraman
- Department of Hepatology, Sri Ramachandra Institute of Higher Education and Research, Chennai, Tamil Nadu, India
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Renukaprasad AK, Narayanaswamy S, R V. A Comparative Analysis of Risk Scoring Systems in Predicting Clinical Outcomes in Upper Gastrointestinal Bleed. Cureus 2022; 14:e26669. [PMID: 35949732 PMCID: PMC9357970 DOI: 10.7759/cureus.26669] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/20/2022] [Accepted: 07/07/2022] [Indexed: 11/08/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Upper gastrointestinal bleed (UGIB) is a life-threatening condition that presents as hematemesis (fresh blood), coffee-ground vomiting, or melena. Multiple scoring systems are developed to predict different clinical outcomes, which are important to managing UGIB and are essential to determining low and high-risk patients. The study aimed to compare the sensitivity and specificity of risk scoring systems and their optimum cut-off values in the assessment of UGIB. Methods The prospective cross-sectional study included patients (N = 81) with acute UGIB. Four different proposed scores [Glasgow-Blatchford score (GBS), AIMS65, pre-endoscopic Rockall, and full Rockall scoring system] were used for evaluating patients with UGIB. The optimum cut-off values of these risk scores were used to predict the clinical outcomes. Results The AIMS65 score [Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve (AUROC): 0.91, cut-off: >1, sensitivity: 100%, specificity: 76.62%] and pre-Rockall were similar (AUROC: 0.91, cut-off: >0, sensitivity: 100%, specificity: 93.51%) at predicting mortality. The GBS (cut-off: >9, AUROC: 0.79, sensitivity: 69.23, specificity: 87.50) and AIMS65 scores (cut-off: >0, AUROC: 0.67, sensitivity: 72.31, specificity: 62.5) were good predictors of need for ICU care. Conclusion GBS was superior in predicting categorization into high risk and low risk, and endoscopic intervention, blood transfusion, and intensive care unit (ICU) care in UGIB patients. Pre-Rockall score and AIMS65 score were similar in predicting the mortality rate in UGIB.
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Bitar SM, Moussa M. The risk factors for the recurrent upper gastrointestinal hemorrhage among acute peptic ulcer disease patients in Syria: A prospective cohort study. Ann Med Surg (Lond) 2022; 74:103252. [PMID: 35106151 PMCID: PMC8784635 DOI: 10.1016/j.amsu.2022.103252] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/11/2021] [Revised: 01/04/2022] [Accepted: 01/06/2022] [Indexed: 02/07/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) is a life-threatening medical emergency characterized by bleeding from the esophagus, stomach, or duodenum. This study aims to analyze the risk factors for upper gastrointestinal tract rebleeding among acute peptic ulcer patients. METHODS This is a cohort clinical study conducted between July 2018 and June 2020. Patients admitted or hospitalized because of UGIB or developed it during their hospital stay were included.s The patients were divided into two groups for the statistical analysis using Forrest's ulcer rebleeding risk classification. Group 1: Forrest 1a+1b+2a+2b, and group 2: Forrest 2c+3. The fasting time before the endoscopic procedure was from 12 to 24 hours. Follow-ups were conducted for 30 days after the treatment. RESULTS The total number of included subjects was 152, out of which 57.89% (n = 88) were male patients. The mean SD for patients' age was 52.63 16.89±; more than 40% (n = 62) of subjects were using antiplatelet medications, while only 13.15% (n = 20) used NSAIDs, and the mean SD for the transferred units was 2.32 ± 1.88, 7.24% (n = 11) of patients died. After 30 days of the treatment, 6.57% (n = 10) of patients suffered from recurrent bleeding. The most common presentation was melena 67.95% (n = 103), 53% (n = 81) of patients had hematemesis, 69.73% (n = 106) patients had gastric ulcer and 30.26% (n = 46) had duodenal ulcers. CONCLUSION Age, NSAIDs, altered mental capacity, Forrest classification (Ia,Ib, and IIa), and blood transfusion were associated with a higher risk of rebleeding. Furthermore, patients who needed 3.83 blood units were at higher risk of recurrent bleeding.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sara Mona Bitar
- Department of Gastroenterology, Faculty of Medicine, University of Aleppo, Syria
| | - Maen Moussa
- Department of Gastroenterology, Faculty of Medicine, University of Aleppo, Syria
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Chen L, Zheng H, Wang S. Prediction model of emergency mortality risk in patients with acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding: a retrospective study. PeerJ 2021; 9:e11656. [PMID: 34221734 PMCID: PMC8236237 DOI: 10.7717/peerj.11656] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/19/2021] [Accepted: 05/31/2021] [Indexed: 11/24/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Upper gastrointestinal bleeding is a common presentation in emergency departments and carries significant morbidity worldwide. It is paramount that treating physicians have access to tools that can effectively evaluate the patient risk, allowing quick and effective treatments to ultimately improve their prognosis. This study aims to establish a mortality risk assessment model for patients with acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding at an emergency department. Methods A total of 991 patients presenting with acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding between July 2016 and June 2019 were enrolled in this retrospective single-center cohort study. Patient demographics, parameters assessed at admission, laboratory test, and clinical interventions were extracted. We used the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression to identify predictors for establishing a nomogram for death in the emergency department or within 24 h after leaving the emergency department and a corresponding nomogram. The area under the curve of the model was calculated. A bootstrap resampling method was used to internal validation, and decision curve analysis was applied for evaluate the clinical utility of the model. We also compared our predictive model with other prognostic models, such as AIMS65, Glasgow-Blatchford bleeding score, modified Glasgow-Blatchford bleeding score, and Pre-Endoscopic Rockall Score. Results Among 991 patients, 41 (4.14%) died in the emergency department or within 24 h after leaving the emergency department. Five non-zero coefficient variables (transfusion of plasma, D-dimer, albumin, potassium, age) were filtered by the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression analysis and used to establish a predictive model. The area under the curve for the model was 0.847 (95% confidence interval [0.794–0.900]), which is higher than that of previous models for mortality of patients with acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding. The decision curve analysis indicated the clinical usefulness of the model. Conclusions The nomogram based on transfusion of plasma, D-dimer, albumin, potassium, and age effectively assessed the prognosis of patients with acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding presenting at the emergency department.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lan Chen
- Nursing Education Department, Affiliated Jinhua Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Jinhua Municipal Central Hospital, Jinhua, ZheJiang, China
| | - Han Zheng
- Emergency Department, Affiliated Jinhua Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Jinhua Municipal Central Hospital, Jinhua, ZheJiang, China
| | - Saibin Wang
- Department of Respiratory Medicine, Affiliated Jinhua Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Jinhua Municipal Central Hospital, Jinhua, ZheJiang, China
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Maia S, Falcão D, Silva J, Pedroto I. The Clinical Impact of Rockall and Glasgow-Blatchford Scores in Nonvariceal Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding. GE-PORTUGUESE JOURNAL OF GASTROENTEROLOGY 2021; 28:243-252. [PMID: 34386553 DOI: 10.1159/000511809] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/01/2020] [Accepted: 09/13/2020] [Indexed: 12/26/2022]
Abstract
Introduction Risk stratification in patients with nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding (NVUGIB) is crucial for proper management. Rockall score (RS; pre-endoscopic and complete) and Glasgow-Blatchford score (GBS) are some of the most used scoring systems. This study aims to analyze these scores' ability to predict various clinical outcomes and possible cutoff points to identify low- and high-risk patients. Secondarily, this study intents to evaluate the appropriateness of patients' transfers to our facility, which provides a specialized emergency endoscopy service. Methods This study was retrospectively conducted at Centro Hospitalar Universitário do Porto and included patients admitted to the Emergency Department with acute manifestations of NVUGIB between January 2016 and December 2018. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and corresponding areas under the curve (AUC) were calculated. Transferred patients from other institutions and nontransferred (directly admitted to this institution) patients were also compared. Results Of a total of 420 patients, 23 (5.9%) died, 34 (8.4%) rebled, 217 (51.7%) received blood transfusion, 153 (36.3%) received endoscopic therapy, 22 (5.7%) had surgery, and 171 (42.3%) required hospitalization in the Intermediate or Intensive Care Unit. Regarding mortality prediction, both complete RS (AUC 0.756, p < 0.001) and pre-endoscopic RS (AUC 0.711, p = 0.001) showed good performance. In the prediction of rebleeding, only complete RS (AUC 0.735, p < 0.001) had discriminative ability. GBS had good performance in the prediction of transfusion (AUC 0.785, p < 0.001). No score showed discriminative capability in the prediction of other outcomes. Transferred and nontransferred patients had similar pre-endoscopic RS (3.41 vs. 3.34, p = 0.692) and GBS (13.29 vs. 12.29, p = 0.056). Only patients with GBS ≥6 were transferred to our facility. There were no adverse outcomes recorded in any group when GBS was ≤3. Discussion/Conclusion Complete RS and pre-endoscopic RS are effective at predicting mortality, but only complete RS showed good performance at predicting rebleeding. GBS is better at predicting transfusion requirement. Our study suggests that a transfer can possibly be reconsidered if GBS is ≤3, although current recommendations only propose outpatient care when GBS is 0 or 1. Patients' transfers were appropriate, considering the high GBS scores and the outcomes of these patients.
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Affiliation(s)
- Susana Maia
- Instituto de Ciências Biomédicas Abel Salazar, Porto, Portugal
| | - Daniela Falcão
- Department of Gastroenterology, Centro Hospitalar Universitário do Porto, Porto, Portugal
| | - Joana Silva
- Department of Gastroenterology, Centro Hospitalar Universitário do Porto, Porto, Portugal
| | - Isabel Pedroto
- Instituto de Ciências Biomédicas Abel Salazar, Porto, Portugal.,Department of Gastroenterology, Centro Hospitalar Universitário do Porto, Porto, Portugal
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Dhir V, Shah R. Scoring systems for upper gastrointestinal bleeding: Which one scores better? Indian J Gastroenterol 2019; 38:95-97. [PMID: 30864010 DOI: 10.1007/s12664-019-00945-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/06/2023]
Affiliation(s)
- Vinay Dhir
- Institute of Digestive and Liver Care, S L Raheja Hospital, Mahim (W), Mumbai, 400 016, India.
| | - Rahul Shah
- Institute of Digestive and Liver Care, S L Raheja Hospital, Mahim (W), Mumbai, 400 016, India
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