Strengthening the policy framework to resolve lax implementation of the Baltic Sea Action Plan for agriculture

Challenges and opportunities when moving food production and consumption toward sustainable diets in the Nordics: a scoping review for Nordic Nutrition Recommendations 2023

The terms 'Nordic countries' or 'The Nordics' include the five countries Denmark, Finland, Island, Norway, and Sweden. This review includes evaluation of the Nordic countries against Food and Agricultural Organisation (FAO)/World Health Organizations' (WHO) guiding principles for healthy, sustainable diets with respect to environmental impact (principles #9 - #13) and sociocultural aspects (principles #14 - #16). A food systems perspective is taken to summarize and discuss the most important challenges and opportunities for achieving sustainable diets. Food system, food security, self-sufficiency, and resilience perspectives are applied. The information can underpin decisions when developing and implementing Food Based Dietary Guidelines (FBDG) in the Nordics. None of the Nordic countries are on track to reach the 2030 UN climate and biodiversity goals. We describe how food production, processing, and consumption contribute to these and other environmental challenges, and what kinds of dietary changes/transitions consistent with these goals are required. A major challenge is the high production and consumption of meat and too low consumption of fish, vegetables, and fruits. Meat production is a major source of emissions and, together with farmed fish, heavily dependent on imported feed ingredients, leaving a large land-use and water footprint in exporting countries while domestic land resources are not used optimally. Dietary patterns have changed drastically over the past 50 years, and in large parts of the population, meat consumption has doubled since the 1970s, rendering historic food culture less useful as a basis for present-day recommendations. The Nordics have Europe's lowest use of antibiotics in animal and fish production and have made some progress in reducing food waste along the food chain. A major opportunity is better alignment of food production and consumption based on local or regional production potentials, in conjunction with better and more constructive integration with the global food system while integrating novel technologies to reduce emissions and resource use.

Efficient protection of the Baltic Sea needs a revision of phosphorus metric

Eutrophication of the Baltic Sea is driven by phosphorus and nitrogen. While the anthropogenic point source loads of both nutrients have decreased markedly, further reductions are needed. This is true particularly for phosphorus, as highlighted by its stringent abatement targets in HELCOM's Baltic Sea Action Plan. To meet the targets, more results need to be achieved in non-point source abatement, specifically from agricultural sources. The growing pressure for phosphorus abatement from agriculture may lead to environmentally and economically inefficient outcomes unless we account for the variability in how different forms of phosphorus respond to abatement measures, and how these forms contribute to eutrophication. The precautionary and efficiency improving way to advance policies is to either replace or supplement the Total Phosphorus metric with a metric more accurate in reflecting the biologically available phosphorus. This policy fix becomes more important as the relative share of agricultural emissions of total pollution increases.

Evaluation of the costs of agricultural diffuse water pollution abatement in the context of Lithuania's water protection goals and climate change

This study aimed at evaluating the scale and costs of an environmentally and economically optimal set of Best Management Practices (BMPs) for agricultural pollution abatement in Lithuania in order to reach water protection goals in both inland and marine waters by distributing BMPs optimally in space, while taking climate change impacts into consideration. The assessment of BMPs impact involved the use of the SWAT model by applying two climate change representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and two time horizons (mid-century and end-century), as well as five BMPs (arable land conversion to grasslands, reduced fertilization, no-till farming, catch-crops, and stubble fields throughout winter). The optimization of the set of BMPs employed a genetic algorithm. The results suggest that the need for BMPs application will increase from 52% of agricultural areas in the historical period up to 65% by the end of century in the RCP8.5 scenario. This means less arable land could actually be used for crop production in the future if water protection targets are met. The high costs for reaching water targets would rise even more, i.e. by 173% for RCP4.5, and by 220% for the RCP8.5 scenario, reaching approximately 200 million euros/year. In such a context, the BMP optimization approach is essential for significant reduction of the costs. Winter cover crops and reduced fertilization show the best effectiveness and cost balance, and will therefore be essential in pursuing water protection targets.

How unnecessarily high abatement costs and unresolved distributional issues undermine nutrient reductions to the Baltic Sea

This paper systematically reviews the literature on how to reduce nutrient emissions to the Baltic Sea cost-effectively and considerations for allocating these costs fairly among countries. The literature shows conclusively that the reduction targets of the Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP) could be achieved at considerably lower cost, if countries would cooperate to implement the least costly abatement plan. Focusing on phosphorus abatement could be prudent as the often recommended measures-wastewater treatment and wetlands-abate nitrogen too. An implication of our review is that the potential for restoring the Baltic Sea to good health is undermined by an abatement strategy that is more costly than necessary and likely to be perceived as unfair by several countries. Neither the BSAP nor the cost-effective solution meet the surveyed criteria for fairness, implying a need for side-payments.

Promise and performance of agricultural nutrient management policy: Lessons from the Baltic Sea

Following decades of international collaboration to restore the Baltic Sea, we provide an assessment of the domestic implementation of measures agreed to limit diffuse agricultural pollution and the patterns of policy instruments applied. Despite the Helsinki Convention being unusually specific in detailing what measures countries should introduce, we find many shortcomings. These are most pronounced in the larger countries (Poland, Germany and Russia), while smaller countries perform better, notably Sweden and Estonia. The patterns of policy instruments applied differ, influenced by domestic politics. The limited use of complementary policy instruments suggests that other priorities overrule full and effective implementation, with engagement mirroring the advantages that a restored Baltic Sea can bring to countries. Using the European Agricultural Fund for Rural Development to support farmers in managing nutrients, particularly advisory services and investments in modern manure management technologies, represents a significant opportunity for reducing agricultural pollution in most countries.