Multidimensional Analysis of Risk Factors for the Severity and Mortality of Patients with COVID-19 and Diabetes

The relationship of age, sex and prothrombin time related to the severity of COVID-19 patients with diabetes mellitus: a systematic review and meta analysis

Background

SARS-CoV-2 first appeared in Wuhan, China, in December 2019. Looking at the prevalence data in the world and in Indonesia, the highest mortality rate due to COVID-19 involves age, gender and comorbidities such as diabetes mellitus. Severity of the condition also refers to coagulation abnormalities, such as abnormal prothrombin time values.

Methods

This systematic review study and meta-analysis used online literature sourced from PubMed, Science Direct, EBSCO, Cochrane and Google Scholar. The literature used here is literature that has data on age, sex and prothrombin time of COVID-19 patients with diabetes mellitus whose quality is assessed by the NOS (Newcastle-Ottawa Scale) criteria and processing data using Review Manager 5.4.

Results

Out of 8711 literatures that were traced from various search sources, there were 45 literatures that were included in this study. The results of the analysis on age showed the Standardized Mean Difference (SMD) value of 0.45 and P <0.0001 (95% CI: 0.23-0.68), the gender analysis showed an Odds Ratio (OR) value of 3.28 and P = 0.01 (95% CI: 1.26-8.52) and the prothrombin time analysis showed SMD values of 0.41 and P = 0.07 (95%CI = -0.03-0.85).

Conclusion

Patients with COVID-19 who have DM have a higher risk compared to those without DM. Among COVID-19 patients with DM admitted to hospitals, they were older compared to those without DM and prothrombin time values similar but slightly higher in COVID-19 patients with DM.

Clinical predictions of COVID-19 patients using deep stacking neural networks

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, which emerged in late 2019, has caused millions of infections and fatalities globally, disrupting various aspects of human society, including socioeconomic, political, and educational systems. One of the key challenges during the COVID-19 pandemic is accurately predicting the clinical development and outcome of the infected patients. In response, scientists and medical professionals globally have mobilized to develop prognostic strategies such as risk scores, biomarkers, and machine learning models to predict the clinical course and outcomes of COVID-19 patients. In this contribution, we deployed a mathematical approach called matrix factorization feature selection to select the most relevant features from the anonymized laboratory biomarkers and demographic data of COVID-19 patients. Based on these features, developed a model that leverages the deep stacking neural network (DSNN) to aid in clinical care by predicting patients' mortality risk. To gauge the performance of our suggested model, performed a comparative analysis with principal component analysis plus support vector machine, deep learning, and random forest, achieving outstanding performances. The DSNN model outperformed all the other models in terms of area under the curve (96.0%), F1-score (98.1%), recall (98.5%), accuracy (99.0%), precision (97.7%), specificity (97.0%), and maximum probability of correction decision (93.4%). Our model outperforms the clinical predictive models regarding patient mortality risk and classification in the literature. Therefore, we conclude that our robust model can help healthcare professionals to manage COVID-19 patients more effectively. We expect that early prediction of COVID-19 patients and preventive interventions can reduce the mortality risk of patients.

Risk and predictors of severity and mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes and COVID-19 in Dubai

BACKGROUND

Globally, patients with diabetes suffer from increased disease severity and mortality due to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Old age, high body mass index (BMI), comorbidities, and complications of diabetes are recognized as major risk factors for infection severity and mortality.

AIM

To investigate the risk and predictors of higher severity and mortality among in-hospital patients with COVID-19 and type 2 diabetes (T2D) during the first wave of the pandemic in Dubai (March-September 2020).

METHODS

In this cross-sectional nested case-control study, a total of 1083 patients with COVID-19 were recruited. This study included 890 men and 193 women. Of these, 427 had T2D and 656 were non-diabetic. The clinical, radiographic, and laboratory data of the patients with and without T2D were compared. Independent predictors of mortality in COVID-19 non-survivors were identified in patients with and without T2D.

RESULTS

T2D patients with COVID-19 were older and had higher BMI than those without T2D. They had higher rates of comorbidities such as hypertension, ischemic heart disease, heart failure, and more life-threatening complications. All laboratory parameters of disease severity were significantly higher than in those without T2D. Therefore, these patients had a longer hospital stay and a significantly higher mortality rate. They died from COVID-19 at a rate three times higher than patients without. Most laboratory and radiographic severity indices in non-survivors were high in patients with and without T2D. In the univariate analysis of the predictors of mortality among all COVID-19 non-survivors, significant associations were identified with old age, increased white blood cell count, lym-phopenia, and elevated serum troponin levels. In multivariate analysis, only lymphopenia was identified as an independent predictor of mortality among T2D non-survivors.

CONCLUSION

Patients with COVID-19 and T2D were older with higher BMI, more comorbidities, higher disease severity indices, more severe proinflammatory state with cardiac involvement, and died from COVID-19 at three times the rate of patients without T2D. The identified mortality predictors will help healthcare workers prioritize the management of patients with COVID-19.

Risk phenotypes of diabetes and association with COVID-19 severity and death: an update of a living systematic review and meta-analysis

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

To provide a systematic overview of the current body of evidence on high-risk phenotypes of diabetes associated with COVID-19 severity and death.

METHODS

This is the first update of our recently published living systematic review and meta-analysis. Observational studies investigating phenotypes in individuals with diabetes and confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection with regard to COVID-19-related death and severity were included. The literature search was conducted from inception up to 14 February 2022 in PubMed, Epistemonikos, Web of Science and the COVID-19 Research Database and updated using PubMed alert to 1 December 2022. A random-effects meta-analysis was used to calculate summary relative risks (SRRs) with 95% CIs. The risk of bias was evaluated using the Quality in Prognosis Studies (QUIPS) tool and the certainty of evidence using the GRADE approach.

RESULTS

A total of 169 articles (147 new studies) based on approximately 900,000 individuals were included. We conducted 177 meta-analyses (83 on COVID-19-related death and 94 on COVID-19 severity). Certainty of evidence was strengthened for associations between male sex, older age, blood glucose level at admission, chronic insulin use, chronic metformin use (inversely) and pre-existing comorbidities (CVD, chronic kidney disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease) and COVID-19-related death. New evidence with moderate to high certainty emerged for the association between obesity (SRR [95% CI] 1.18 [1.04, 1.34], n=21 studies), HbA1c (53-75 mmol/mol [7-9%]: 1.18 [1.06, 1.32], n=8), chronic glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonist use (0.83 [0.71, 0.97], n=9), pre-existing heart failure (1.33 [1.21, 1.47], n=14), pre-existing liver disease (1.40 [1.17, 1.67], n=6), the Charlson index (per 1 unit increase: 1.33 [1.13, 1.57], n=2), high levels of C-reactive protein (per 5 mg/l increase: 1.07 [1.02, 1.12], n=10), aspartate aminotransferase level (per 5 U/l increase: 1.28 [1.06, 1.54], n=5), eGFR (per 10 ml/min per 1.73 m2 increase: 0.80 [0.71, 0.90], n=6), lactate dehydrogenase level (per 10 U/l increase: 1.03 [1.01, 1.04], n=7) and lymphocyte count (per 1×109/l increase: 0.59 [0.40, 0.86], n=6) and COVID-19-related death. Similar associations were observed between risk phenotypes of diabetes and severity of COVID-19, with some new evidence on existing COVID-19  vaccination status (0.32 [0.26, 0.38], n=3), pre-existing hypertension (1.23 [1.14, 1.33], n=49), neuropathy and cancer, and high IL-6 levels. A limitation of this study is that the included studies are observational in nature and residual or unmeasured confounding cannot be ruled out.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

Individuals with a more severe course of diabetes and pre-existing comorbidities had a poorer prognosis of COVID-19 than individuals with a milder course of the disease.

REGISTRATION

PROSPERO registration no. CRD42020193692.

PREVIOUS VERSION

This is a living systematic review and meta-analysis. The previous version can be found at https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00125-021-05458-8 FUNDING: The German Diabetes Center (DDZ) is funded by the German Federal Ministry of Health and the Ministry of Culture and Science of the State North Rhine-Westphalia. This study was supported in part by a grant from the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research to the German Center for Diabetes Research (DZD).

Leukocyte glucose index as a novel biomarker for COVID-19 severity

The severity of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) quickly progresses with unfavorable outcomes due to the host immune response and metabolism alteration. Hence, we hypothesized that leukocyte glucose index (LGI) is a biomarker for severe COVID-19. This study involved 109 patients and the usefulness of LGI was evaluated and compared with other risk factors to predict COVID 19 severity. LGI was identified as an independent risk factor (odds ratio [OR] = 1.727, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.026-3.048, P = 0.041), with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.749 (95% CI: 0.642-0.857, P < 0.0001). Interestingly, LGI was a potential risk factor (OR = 2.694, 95% CI: 1.575-5.283, Pcorrected < 0.05) for severe COVID-19 in female but not in male patients. In addition, LGI proved to be a strong predictor of the severity in patients with diabetes (AUC = 0.915 (95% CI: 0.830-1), sensitivity = 0.833, and specificity = 0.931). The AUC of LGI, together with the respiratory rate (LGI + RR), showed a considerable improvement (AUC = 0.894, 95% CI: 0.835-0.954) compared to the other biochemical and respiratory parameters analyzed. Together, these findings indicate that LGI could potentially be used as a biomarker of severity in COVID-19 patients.

Prognostic value of albumin-to-globulin ratio in COVID-19 patients: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Background and aims

The albumin-to-globulin ratio (AGR) has been used to predict severity and mortality in infectious diseases. The aim of this study is to evaluate the prognostic value of the AGR in COVID-19 patients.

Methods

A systematic review and meta-analysis were conducted. We included observational studies assessing the association between the AGR values upon hospital admission and severity or all-cause mortality in COVID-19 patients. In the meta-analyses we used random effect models. Risk of bias was assessed using the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale (NOS). The effect measures were expressed as mean difference (MD) and their 95% confidence intervals (CI). We performed Egger's test and funnel plots to assess the publication bias.

Results

The included studies had a total of 11356 patients corresponding to 31 cohort studies. Severe COVID-19 patients had lower AGR values than non-severe COVID-19 patients (mean difference (MD), −0.27; 95% IC, −0.32 to −0.22; p < 0.001; I² = 88%). Non-survivor patients with COVID-19 had lower AGR values than survivor patients (MD, −0.29; 95% IC, −0.35 to −0.24; p < 0.001; I² = 79%). In the sensitivity analysis, we only included studies with low risk of bias, which decreased the heterogeneity for both outcomes (severity, I² = 20%; mortality, I² = 5%).

Conclusions

Low AGR values upon hospital admission were found in COVID-19 patients with a worse prognosis.

The Role of Diabetes and Hyperglycemia on COVID-19 Infection Course-A Narrative Review

It was previously reported that subjects with diabetes mellitus (DM) are more vulnerable to several bacterial or viral infections. In the era of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, it is reasonable to wonder whether DM is a risk factor for COVID-19 infection, too. It is not yet clear whether DM increases the risk for contracting COVID-19 infection or not. However, patients with DM when infected are more likely to develop severe or even fatal COVID-19 disease course than patients without DM. Certain characteristics of DM patients may also deteriorate prognosis. On the other hand, hyperglycemia per se is related to unfavorable outcomes, and the risk may be higher for COVID-19 subjects without pre-existing DM. In addition, individuals with DM may experience prolonged symptoms, need readmission, or develop complications such as mucormycosis long after recovery from COVID-19; close follow-up is hence necessary in some selected cases. We here present a narrative review of the literature in order to set light into the relationship between COVID-19 infection and DM/hyperglycemia.

Serum hydroxybutyrate dehydrogenase and COVID-19 severity and mortality: a systematic review and meta-analysis with meta-regression

Alterations in cardiac and renal biomarkers have been reported in coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19). We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to investigate serum concentrations of hydroxybutyrate dehydrogenase (HBDH), a combined marker of myocardial and renal injury, in hospitalized COVID-19 patients with different disease severity and survival status. We searched PubMed, Web of Science and Scopus, between December 2019 and April 2021, for studies reporting HBDH in COVID-19. Risk of bias was assessed using the Newcastle–Ottawa scale, publication bias was assessed with the Begg’s and Egger’s tests, and certainty of evidence was assessed using GRADE. In 22 studies in 15,019 COVID-19 patients, serum HBDH concentrations on admission were significantly higher in patients with high disease severity or non-survivor status when compared to patients with low severity or survivor status (standardized mean difference, SMD = 0.90, 95% CI 0.74 to 1.07, p < 0.001; moderate certainty of evidence). Extreme between-study heterogeneity was observed (I² = 93.5%, p < 0.001). Sensitivity analysis, performed by sequentially removing each study and re-assessing the pooled estimates, showed that the magnitude and the direction of the effect size were not substantially modified. A significant publication bias was observed. In meta-regression, the SMD of HBDH concentrations was significantly associated with markers of inflammation, sepsis, liver damage, non-specific tissue damage, myocardial injury, and renal function. Higher HBDH concentrations were significantly associated with higher COVID-19 severity and mortality. This biomarker of cardiac and renal injury might be useful for risk stratification in COVID-19. (PROSPERO registration number: CRD42021258123).