Modeling Survival Time to Death Among TB and HIV Co-infected Adult Patients: an Institution-Based Retrospective Cohort Study

Incidence Rate, Survival Rate, and Predictors for Virological Failure Among Adult TB/HIV Coinfected Clients

Background: Tuberculosis increases human immunodeficiency virus replication and accelerates human immunodeficiency virus progression in both tuberculosis and human immunodeficiency virus coinfected patients. The objective of this study was to determine the incidence rate, survival rate, and predictors for virological failure among adult tuberculosis/human immunodeficiency virus coinfected clients. Methods: A retrospective cohort study was conducted at the University of Gondar Compressive Specialized Hospital from March 2017 to 2022. Secondary data sources were extracted based on inclusion criteria for adult tuberculosis/human immunodeficiency virus coinfected patients. The Cox proportional hazards model was used for adult tuberculosis/human immunodeficiency virus coinfected patients data. Result: The overall incidence rate of virological failure was 9.23 per 1000 person-months observations. Out of 148 coinfected patients, about 24.3% had virological failure. More than half of the patients, 52.7% and 54.1% in this study had a CD4 cell count ≥ 200/mm3 and a weight < 50 kg, respectively. Gender (hazard ratio = 1.3291, 95% CI: 1.1878-1.4873), bedridden functional status (hazard ratio = 4.7174; 95% CI: 1.2263-14.1470), WHO clinical Stage IV (hazard ratio = 1.1122, 95% CI: 1.2072-5.9693), patients with opportunistic infections (hazard ratio = 1.2849, 95% CI: 1.4289-3.8504), cotrimoxazole preventive therapy users (hazard ratio = 0.2039, 95% CI: 0.0496-0.8386), patients disclosure status (hazard ratio = 0.1609, 95% CI: 0.0279-0.9286), baseline viral load count < 1000 (hazard ratio = 0.0819, 95% CI: 0.3619-0.8447), and CD4 cell count ≥ 200 (hazard ratio = 0.2728, 95% CI: 0.0749-0.9924) were significant predictors at 5% level of confidence for time to virological failure. Conclusion: The incidence and survival rate of virological failure were high. The current study revealed that male coinfected patients, bedridden functional status, WHO clinical Stage IV, and opportunistic infections other than tuberculosis were associated with a higher time to virological failure while patients disclosed the disease to a family member, cotrimoxazole preventive therapy users, baseline viral load < 1000 copies/mL, and CD4 cell count ≥ 200/mm3 had significantly lower time to virological failure. Therefore, public health organizations should be given special attention based on these important predictors to improve their health and prolong the lives of coinfected patients.

Burden of mortality and its predictors among TB-HIV co-infected patients in Ethiopia: Systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and tuberculosis (TB) are still the two major deadly pandemics globally, causes 167,000 deaths in 2022. The two lethal combinations pose a substantial challenge to public health, especially in areas with high burden of both diseases such as Sub-Saharan Africa including Ethiopia. However, there is no study that showed national figure on mortality of TB/HIV co-infected patients. Hence, this review intended to provide pooled mortality rate and its predictors among patients co- infected with twin pandemics.

METHODS

Using reputable electronic data bases, primary studies were searched from January 25 to February 5, 2024. The review included papers published in English language conducted between 2004 and 2024. Heterogeneity between included studies was evaluated using Cochrane Q-test and the I2 statistics. Sub-group analysis was done to mitigate significant heterogeneity. Sensitivity analysis was also done to evaluate the effect of single studies on pooled estimated result.

RESULTS

In this systematic review and meta-analysis a total of 5,210 study participants were included from 15 primary studies. The review disclosed that the pooled proportion and incidence of mortality were 18.73% (95% CI: 15.92-20.83) and 4.94 (95% CI: 2.98-6.89) respectively. Being bedridden and ambulatory functional status, poor ART adherence, CD4 count below the threshold (<200 cells/mm3), advanced WHO clinical staging, not provision of cotrimoxazole and isoniazid preventing therapy, anemia and extra pulmonary TB were significant predictors of mortality.

CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS

The analyzed data of this systematic review and meta-analysis depicted that the national pooled proportion and incidence of mortality among TB-HIV co-infected patients were considered to be still high. The authors strongly recommended scale up and continuous provision of cotrimoxazole and isoniazid preventive therapy. In addition, early identification and treatment of anemia will greatly halt the high burden of mortality. Generally, to reduce mortality and improve survival, a collaborative effort is mandatory to emphasize close follow up of patients with identified predictors.

Identifying risk factors for recurrent multidrug resistant tuberculosis based on patient's record data from 2016 to 2021: retrospective study

Globally, the prevalence of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) has been increasing recently. This is a major public health concern, as MDR-TB is more difficult to treat and has poorer outcomes compared to drug-sensitive tuberculosis. The main objective of the study was to identify risk factors for recurrent multidrug-resistant tuberculosis, at Alert Specialized Hospital, Addis Ababa, by using different parametric shared frailty models. From January 2016 to December 2021, a retrospective study was conducted on MDR-TB patients at Alert Specialized Hospital in Addis Ababa. The data for the study were collected from the medical records of MDR-TB patients at the hospital during this time period. Gamma and inverse-Gaussian shared frailty models were used to analyze the dataset, with the exponential, Weibull, and lognormal distributions included as baseline hazard functions. The data were analyzed using R statistical software. The median recurrence time of the patients was 12 months, and 149 (34.3%) had recurrences. The clustering effect was statistically significant for multiple drug-resistant tuberculosis patients' recurrence. According to the Weibull-Inverse-Gaussian model, factors that reduced time to MDR-TB recurrence included lower weight (ɸ = 0.944), smoking (ɸ = 0.045), alcohol use (ɸ = 0.631), hemoptysis (ɸ = 0.041), pneumonia (ɸ = 0.564), previous anti-TB treatment (ɸ = 0.106), rural residence (ɸ = 0.163), and chronic diseases like diabetes (ɸ = 0.442) were associated with faster recurrence. While, higher education (ɸ = 3.525) and age (ɸ = 1.021) extended time to recurrence. For weight increment, smokers and alcohol users, clinical complications of hemoptysis and pneumonia, patients with pulmonary disease who had a history of previous anti-TB treatment, and being rural residents are prognostic factors. There was a significant clustering effect at the Alert Specialized Hospital in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. The Weibull-Inverse Gaussian Shared Frailty Model was chosen as the best model for predicting the time to recurrence of MDR-TB.

Incidence rate of mortality and its predictors among tuberculosis and human immunodeficiency virus coinfected patients on antiretroviral therapy in Ethiopia: systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

Tuberculosis (TB) is the leading cause of death among HIV-infected adults and children globally. Therefore, this study was aimed at determining the pooled mortality rate and its predictors among TB/HIV-coinfected patients in Ethiopia.

Methods

Extensive database searching was done via PubMed, EMBASE, SCOPUS, ScienceDirect, Google Scholar, and Google from the time of idea conception on March 1, 2023, to the last search via Google on March 31, 2023. A meta-analysis was performed using the random-effects model to determine the pooled mortality rate and its predictors among TB/HIV-coinfected patients. Heterogeneity was handled using subgroup analysis, meta-regression, and sensitivity analysis.

Results

Out of 2,100 records, 18 articles were included, with 26,291 total patients. The pooled incidence rate of mortality among TB/HIV patients was 12.49 (95% CI: 9.24-15.74) per 100 person-years observation (PYO); I2 = 96.9%. The mortality rate among children and adults was 5.10 per 100 PYO (95% CI: 2.15-8.01; I2 = 84.6%) and 15.78 per 100 PYO (95% CI: 10.84-20.73; I2 = 97.7%), respectively. Age ≥ 45 (pooled hazard ratios (PHR) 2.58, 95% CI: 2.00- 3.31), unemployed (PHR 2.17, 95% CI: 1.37-3.46), not HIV-disclosed (PHR = 2.79, 95% CI: 1.65-4.70), bedridden (PHR 5.89, 95% CI: 3.43-10.12), OI (PHR 3.5, 95% CI: 2.16-5.66), WHO stage IV (PHR 3.16, 95% CI: 2.18-4.58), BMI < 18.5 (PHR 4.11, 95% CI: 2.28-7.40), anemia (PHR 4.43, 95% CI: 2.73-7.18), EPTB 5.78, 95% CI: 2.61-12.78 significantly affected the mortality. The effect of TB on mortality was 1.95 times higher (PHR 1.95, 95% CI: 1.19-3.20; I2 = 0) than in TB-free individuals.

Conclusions

The mortality rate among TB/HIV-coinfected patients in Ethiopia was higher compared with many African countries. Many clinical factors were identified as significant risk factors for mortality. Therefore, TB/HIV program managers and clinicians need to design an intervention early.

Predictors for viral load suppression among HIV positive adults under ART treatment in University of Gondar Comprehensive Specialized Hospital: retrospective cohort study

HIV continues to be a serious global public health concern, having 40.4 million lives up to now and continuing to spread throughout all countries. The objective of this study was to identify predictors for viral load suppression among HIV positive adults under ART treatment in University of Gondar Comprehensive Specialized Hospital, Ethiopia. An institution based retrospective cohort study design was carry out from 30th March 2017-30th March 2022.Accelerated failure time model were employed to get wide-ranging information about adult HIV positive patients. In this study out of 378 study participants, about 77.8% were suppressed viral load count and the rest were censored. The Weibull AFT model results revealed that predictors were older age (φ = 0.774, 95% CI 0.602-0.793), primary educators (φ = 0.931, 95% CI 0.809-0.964), patients disclosed the disease to family member (φ = 1.093, 95% CI 1.001-1.457), viral load < 10,000 copies/mL (φ = 1.153, 95% CI 1.015-1.309), hemoglobin level ≥ 11g/dL (φ = 1.145, 95% CI 1.028-1.275), CD4 cell count ≥ 200 per mm3 (φ = 1.147, 95% CI 1.019-1.290), weight ≥ 50 kg (φ = 1.151, 95% CI 1.033-1.275), BMI between 18.5 and 24.9 kg/m3 (φ = 1.143, 95% CI 1.007-1.296), fair treatment adherence (φ = 1.867, 95% CI 1.778-1.967), good treatment adherence (φ = 1.200, 95% CI 1.046-1.377), advanced WHO clinical stages (φ = 0.923, 95% CI 0.899-0.946), patients with OCC (φ = 0.821, 95% CI 0.720-0.936) and substance use (φ = 0.876, 95% CI 0.773-0.993) statistically significant predictors for viral load suppression at 5% level of significance. Then, near intensive care of adult patients' whose ages between 25 and 34 years, primary educational level, advanced WHO clinical stage, patients with OCC, and substance users can help them improve their health and live longer. Lastly, further studies should be done on HIV positive adult patients by considering other important independent variables that were not included in this study.

Survival rate and predictors of mortality among TB/HIV co-infected adult patients: retrospective cohort study

Nowadays, Tuberculosis remains the major cause of HIV-associated mortality, which accounts for 1 out of every 5 HIV-related mortality worldwide. This study aimed to determine the survival rate and predictors of mortality among TB/HIV co-infected patients. An institution-based retrospective cohort study was undertaken on adult TB/HIV co-infected individuals between 1st February 2014 and 30th January 2022 at Mettu Karl Referral Hospital. A Cox regression model was used to identify predictors of survival time to death among TB/HIV co-infected patients. This study comprised 402 TB and HIV co-infected adult patients. Among these, 84 (20.9%) died, and 318 (79.1%) were censored. The study subjects have been followed up for 6920 person-months with an overall median survival time of 17.6 months. The overall incidence rate was 12.1 per 1000 person months [95% CI: 9.77-14.98]. The results of a multivariable Cox regression analysis showed that being at an older age, urban residence, WHO clinical stage II & IV, CD4 count of ≥ 200 cells/mm³, bedridden functional status, using INH, and using CPT were associated with the survival time of TB and HIV co-infected patients at a significance level of alpha = 0.05. This retrospective study found that high mortality of TB/HIV co-infected patients occurred in the earlier months of treatment initiation. Close monitoring of patients with low CD4, who do not utilize CPT, who are in advanced WHO stages, and who have poor functional levels can help them improve their health and live longer.