Low performance of prognostic tools for predicting dialysis in elderly people with advanced CKD

Can we predict mortality of older patients with advanced chronic kidney disease?

BACKGROUND

Studies have shown that patients with advanced chronic kidney disease (CKD) desire to know their prognosis. Although many predictive tools exist, they are not widely used in clinical practice as their applicability is not clear, particularly for older patients.

AIM

To evaluate the validity of existing prognostic tools in older patients with advanced CKD.

METHODS

This was a single-centre retrospective validation cohort study on patients aged ≥65 years with grade 4 or 5 CKD between 2009 and 2018. The Ivory, Schmidt and Cohen models were tested by comparing predicted and actual mortality outcomes. Discriminatory ability was measured by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), and calibration was assessed by the Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic. The global performance of the predictive regression models was assessed using the measure of goodness of fit with the coefficient of determination Nagalkerke R2.

RESULTS

A total of 387 patients with a median age of 80 years (IQR 74-85) were included in the study. For the Ivory and Schmidt models, the c-statistic was 0.617 (95% CI 0.47-0.74) and 0.60 (95% CI 0.47-0.71) respectively, indicating poor discrimination. The Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic was 1.42 (P = 0.22) and 1.59 (P = 0.15) respectively, indicating reasonable calibration. The Cohen model had an overall poor predictive value.

CONCLUSION

Existing prognostication tools demonstrate overall suboptimal performance in our validation cohort of older patients. Further research is needed for the development of a prognostic tool specific to the older advanced CKD population.

Representation of multimorbidity and frailty in the development and validation of kidney failure prognostic prediction models: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Prognostic models that identify individuals with chronic kidney disease (CKD) at greatest risk of developing kidney failure help clinicians to make decisions and deliver precision medicine. It is recognised that people with CKD usually have multiple long-term health conditions (multimorbidity) and often experience frailty. We undertook a systematic review to evaluate the representation and consideration of multimorbidity and frailty within CKD cohorts used to develop and/or validate prognostic models assessing the risk of kidney failure.

METHODS

We identified studies that described derivation, validation or update of kidney failure prognostic models in MEDLINE, CINAHL Plus and the Cochrane Library-CENTRAL. The primary outcome was representation of multimorbidity or frailty. The secondary outcome was predictive accuracy of identified models in relation to presence of multimorbidity or frailty.

RESULTS

Ninety-seven studies reporting 121 different kidney failure prognostic models were identified. Two studies reported prevalence of multimorbidity and a single study reported prevalence of frailty. The rates of specific comorbidities were reported in a greater proportion of studies: 67.0% reported baseline data on diabetes, 54.6% reported hypertension and 39.2% reported cardiovascular disease. No studies included frailty in model development, and only one study considered multimorbidity as a predictor variable. No studies assessed model performance in populations in relation to multimorbidity. A single study assessed associations between frailty and the risks of kidney failure and death.

CONCLUSIONS

There is a paucity of kidney failure risk prediction models that consider the impact of multimorbidity and/or frailty, resulting in a lack of clear evidence-based practice for multimorbid or frail individuals. These knowledge gaps should be explored to help clinicians know whether these models can be used for CKD patients who experience multimorbidity and/or frailty.

SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION

This review has been registered on PROSPERO (CRD42022347295).

Comprehensive conservative care: what doctors say, what patients hear

The demographic evolution of patients with advanced chronic kidney disease (CKD) has led to the advent of an alternative treatment option to kidney replacement therapy in the past couple of decades. The KDIGO controversies on Kidney Supportive Care called this approach "comprehensive conservative care" (CCC) and defined it as planned holistic patient-centered care for patients with CKD stage 5 that does not include dialysis. Although the benefit of this treatment option is now well-recognized, especially for the elderly, and comorbid and frail patients, its development remains limited in practice. While shared decision-making and advance care planning represent the cornerstones of the CCC approach, one of the main barriers in its development is the perfectible communication between nephrologists and patients, but also between all healthcare professionals involved in the care of advanced CKD patients. As a result, a significant gap has opened up between what doctors say and what patients hear. Indeed, although CCC is reported by nephrologists to be widely available in their facilities, few of their patients say that they have actually heard of it. The objectives of this review are to explore discrepancies between what doctors say and what patients hear, to identify the factors underlying this gap, and to formulate practical proposals for narrowing this gap in practice.

What does the French REIN registry tell us about Stage 4-5 CKD care in older adults?

The aim of this paper is to illustrate all the clinical epidemiology searches made within the French network REIN to improve CKD stage 4-5 care in older adults. We summarize various studies describing clinical practice, care organization, prognosis and health economics evaluation in order to develop personalized care plans and decision-making tools. In France, for 20 years now, various databases have been mobilized including the national REIN registry which includes all patients receiving dialysis or transplantation. REIN data are indirectly linked to the French administrative healthcare database. They are also pooled with data from the PSPA cohort, a multicenter prospective cohort study of patients aged 75 or over with advanced CKD, monitored for 5 years, and the CKD-REIN clinical-based prospective cohort which included 3033 patients with CKD stage 3-4 from 2013 to 2016. During our various research work, we identified heterogeneous trajectories specific to this growing older population, raising ethical, organizational and economic issues. Renal registries will help clinicians, health providers and policy-makers if suitable decision- making tools are developed and validated.

Shared decision-making in advanced kidney disease: a scoping review

OBJECTIVES

To provide a comprehensive overview of interventions that support shared decision-making (SDM) for treatment modality decisions in advanced kidney disease (AKD). To provide summarised information on their content, use and reported results. To provide an overview of interventions currently under development or investigation.

DESIGN

The JBI methodology for scoping reviews was followed. This review conforms to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses Extension for Scoping Reviews (PRISMA-ScR) checklist.

DATA SOURCES

MEDLINE, Embase, Web of Science, Cochrane Library, Emcare, PsycINFO, PROSPERO and Academic Search Premier for peer-reviewed literature. Other online databases (eg, clinicaltrials.gov, OpenGrey) for grey literature.

ELIGIBILITY FOR INCLUSION

Records in English with a study population of patients >18 years of age with an estimated glomerular filtration rate <30 mL/min/1.73 m2. Records had to be on the subject of SDM, or explicitly mention that the intervention reported on could be used to support SDM for treatment modality decisions in AKD.

DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS

Two reviewers independently screened and selected records for data extraction. Interventions were categorised as prognostic tools (PTs), educational programmes (EPs), patient decision aids (PtDAs) or multicomponent initiatives (MIs). Interventions were subsequently categorised based on the decisions they were developed to support.

RESULTS

One hundred forty-five interventions were identified in a total of 158 included records: 52 PTs, 51 EPs, 29 PtDAs and 13 MIs. Sixteen (n=16, 11%) were novel interventions currently under investigation. Forty-six (n=46, 35.7%) were reported to have been implemented in clinical practice. Sixty-seven (n=67, 51.9%) were evaluated for their effects on outcomes in the intended users.

CONCLUSION

There is no conclusive evidence on which intervention is the most efficacious in supporting SDM for treatment modality decisions in AKD. There is a lot of variation in selected outcomes, and the body of evidence is largely based on observational research. In addition, the effects of these interventions on SDM are under-reported.

[Comprehensive conservative care of stage 5-CKD: A practical guide]

In French-speaking countries, the anglicism "traitement conservateur" is commonly used in clinical practice for CKD 5 patients, meaning comprehensive conservative care. In 2015, the publication of KDIGO controversies put forward this "new" therapeutic option at the same level as dialysis or transplantation. However, its detailed contents remain heterogeneous due to cultural and ethical considerations, varying with regional or national health systems. This is the reason why the French-speaking society of Nephrology, Dialysis, Transplantation (SFNDT) set up an international debate to publish clinical guidelines in French.

Low performance of prognostic tools for predicting death before dialysis in older patients with advanced CKD

INTRODUCTION

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a disease which is spreading worldwide, especially among older patients. Several prognostic scores have been developed to predict death in older CKD patients, but they have not been validated. We aimed to evaluate the existing risk scores for predicting death before dialysis start, identified via an in-depth review, in a cohort of elderly patients with advanced CKD.

METHODS

We performed a review to identify scores predicting death, developed in and applicable to CKD patients. Each score was evaluated with an absolute risk calculation from the patients' baseline characteristics. We used a French prospective multicentre cohort of elderly patients (> 75 years) with advanced CKD [estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) < 20 mL/min/1.73 m²], recruited from nephrological centres, with a 5-year follow-up. The outcome considered was death before initiating dialysis. Discrimination [area under curve (AUC)], calibration and Brier score were calculated for each score at its time frame.

RESULTS

Our review found 6 equations predicting death before dialysis in CKD patients. Four of these (GOLDFARB, BANSAL, GRAMS 2 and 4 years) were evaluated. The validation cohort (Parcours de Soins des Personnes Âgées Parcours de Soins des Personnes Âgées, PSPA) included 573 patients, with a median age of 82 years and a median eGFR of 13 mL/min/1.73 m². At the end of follow-up, 287 (50%) patients had started dialysis and 238 (41%) patients had died before dialysis. The four equations evaluated showed average discrimination (AUC 0.61-0.70) and, concerning calibration, a global overestimation of the risk of death.

DISCUSSION

The available scores predicting death before dialysis showed low performance among older patients with advanced CKD in a French multicentre cohort, indicating the need to upgrade them or develop new scores for this population.