Analyzing the Impact of Demographic Variables on Spreading and Forecasting COVID-19

Effects of the built environment and human factors on the spread of COVID-19: A systematic literature review

Soon after its emergence, COVID-19 became a global problem. While different types of vaccines and treatments are now available, still non-pharmacological policies play a critical role in managing the pandemic. The literature is enriched enough to provide comprehensive, practical, and scientific insights to better deal with the pandemic. This research aims to find out how the built environment and human factors have affected the transmission of COVID-19 on different scales, including country, state, county, city, and urban district. This is done through a systematic literature review of papers indexed on the Web of Science and Scopus. Initially, these databases returned 4264 papers, and after different stages of screening, we found 166 relevant papers and reviewed them. The empirical papers that had at least one case study and analyzed the effects of at least one built environment factor on the spread of COVID-19 were selected. Results showed that the driving forces can be divided into seven main categories: density, land use, transportation and mobility, housing conditions, demographic factors, socio-economic factors, and health-related factors. We found that among other things, overcrowding, public transport use, proximity to public spaces, the share of health and services workers, levels of poverty, and the share of minorities and vulnerable populations are major predictors of the spread of the pandemic. As the most studied factor, density was associated with mixed results on different scales, but about 58 % of the papers reported that it is linked with a higher number of cases. This study provides insights for policymakers and academics to better understand the dynamic roles of the non-pharmacological driving forces of COVID-19 at different levels.

Determining an effective short term COVID-19 prediction model in ASEAN countries

The challenge of accurately short-term forecasting demand is due to model selection and the nature of data trends. In this study, the prediction model was determined based on data patterns (trend data without seasonality) and the accuracy of prediction measurement. The cumulative number of COVID-19 affected people in some ASEAN countries had been collected from the Worldometers database. Three models [Holt’s method, Wright’s modified Holt’s method, and unreplicated linear functional relationship model (ULFR)] had been utilized to identify an efficient model for short-time prediction. Moreover, different smoothing parameters had been tested to find the best combination of the smoothing parameter. Nevertheless, using the day-to-day reported cumulative case data and 3-days and 7-days in advance forecasts of cumulative data. As there was no missing data, Holt’s method and Wright’s modified Holt’s method showed the same result. The text-only result corresponds to the consequences of the models discussed here, where the smoothing parameters (SP) were roughly estimated as a function of forecasting the number of affected people due to COVID-19. Additionally, the different combinations of SP showed diverse, accurate prediction results depending on data volume. Only 1-day forecasting illustrated the most efficient prediction days (1 day, 3 days, 7 days), which was validated by the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) model. The study also validated that ULFR was an efficient forecasting model for the efficient model identifying. Moreover, as a substitute for the traditional R-squared, the study applied NSE and R-squared (ULFR) for model selection. Finally, the result depicted that the prediction ability of ULFR was superior to Holt’s when it is compared to the actual data.