An artificial neural network based approach for prediction the thermal conductivity of nanofluids

Deep learning-based forecasting model for COVID-19 outbreak in Saudi Arabia

COVID-19 outbreak has become a global pandemic that affected more than 200 countries. Predicting the epidemiological behavior of this outbreak has a vital role to prevent its spreading. In this study, long short-term memory (LSTM) network as a robust deep learning model is proposed to forecast the number of total confirmed cases, total recovered cases, and total deaths in Saudi Arabia. The model was trained using the official reported data. The optimal values of the model's parameters that maximize the forecasting accuracy were determined. The forecasting accuracy of the model was assessed using seven statistical assessment criteria, namely, root mean square error (RMSE), coefficient of determination (R2), mean absolute error (MAE), efficiency coefficient (EC), overall index (OI), coefficient of variation (COV), and coefficient of residual mass (CRM). A reasonable forecasting accuracy was obtained. The forecasting accuracy of the suggested model is compared with two other models. The first is a statistical based model called autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA). The second is an artificial intelligence based model called nonlinear autoregressive artificial neural networks (NARANN). Finally, the proposed LSTM model was applied to forecast the total number of confirmed cases as well as deaths in six different countries; Brazil, India, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Spain, and USA. These countries have different epidemic trends as they apply different polices and have different age structure, weather, and culture. The social distancing and protection measures applied in different countries are assumed to be maintained during the forecasting period. The obtained results may help policymakers to control the disease and to put strategic plans to organize Hajj and the closure periods of the schools and universities.

Forecasting the prevalence of COVID-19 outbreak in Egypt using nonlinear autoregressive artificial neural networks

SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) is a new Coronavirus, with first reported human infections in late 2019. COVID-19 has been officially declared as a universal pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO). The epidemiological characteristics of COVID-2019 have not been completely understood yet. More than 200,000 persons were killed during this epidemic (till 1 May 2020). Therefore, developing forecasting models to predict the spread of that epidemic is a critical issue. In this study, statistical and artificial intelligence based approaches have been proposed to model and forecast the prevalence of this epidemic in Egypt. These approaches are autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and nonlinear autoregressive artificial neural networks (NARANN). The official data reported by The Egyptian Ministry of Health and Population of COVID-19 cases in the period between 1 March and 10 May 2020 was used to train the models. The forecasted cases showed a good agreement with officially reported cases. The obtained results of this study may help the Egyptian decision-makers to put short-term future plans to face this epidemic.