Estimation of particulate matter (PM2.5, PM10) concentration and its variation over urban sites in Bangladesh

Wintertime investigation of PM10 concentrations, sources, and relationship with different meteorological parameters

Meteorological factors play a crucial role in affecting air quality in the urban environment. Peshawar is the capital city of the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province in Pakistan and is a pollution hotspot. Sources of PM10 and the influence of meteorological factors on PM10 in this megacity have yet to be studied. The current study aims to investigate PM10 mass concentration levels and composition, identify PM10 sources, and quantify links between PM10 and various meteorological parameters like temperature, relative humidity (RH), wind speed (WS), and rainfall (RF) during the winter months from December 2017 to February 2018. PM10 mass concentrations vary from 180 - 1071 µg m-3, with a mean value of 586 ± 217 µg m-3. The highest concentration is observed in December, followed by January and February. The average values of the mass concentration of carbonaceous species (i.e., total carbon, organic carbon, and elemental carbon) are 102.41, 91.56, and 6.72 μgm-3, respectively. Water-soluble ions adhere to the following concentration order: Ca2+  > Na+  > K+  > NH4+  > Mg2+. Twenty-four elements (Al, Si, S, Cl, K, Ca, Ti, V, Cr, Mn, Fe, Co, Ni, Co, Zn, Ga, Ge, As, Se, Kr, Ag, Pb, Cu, and Cd) are detected in the current study by PIXE analysis. Five sources based on Positive Matrix Factorization (PMF) modeling include industrial emissions, soil and re-suspended dust, household combustion, metallurgic industries, and vehicular emission. A positive relationship of PM10 with temperature and relative humidity is observed (r = 0.46 and r = 0.56, respectively). A negative correlation of PM10 is recorded with WS (r =  - 0.27) and RF (r =  - 0.46). This study's results motivate routine air quality monitoring owing to the high levels of pollution in this region. For this purpose, the establishment of air monitoring stations is highly suggested for both PM and meteorology. Air quality standards and legislation need to be revised and implemented. Moreover, the development of effective control strategies for air pollution is highly suggested.

Estimating ground-level PM2.5 using subset regression model and machine learning algorithms in Asian megacity, Dhaka, Bangladesh

Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) has become a prominent pollutant due to rapid economic development, urbanization, industrialization, and transport activities, which has serious adverse effects on human health and the environment. Many studies have employed traditional statistical models and remote-sensing technologies to estimate PM2.5 concentrations. However, statistical models have shown inconsistency in PM2.5 concentration predictions, while machine learning algorithms have excellent predictive capacity, but little research has been done on the complementary advantages of diverse approaches. The present study proposed the best subset regression model and machine learning approaches, including random tree, additive regression, reduced error pruning tree, and random subspace, to estimate the ground-level PM2.5 concentrations over Dhaka. This study used advanced machine learning algorithms to measure the effects of meteorological factors and air pollutants (NOX, SO2, CO, and O3) on the dynamics of PM2.5 in Dhaka from 2012 to 2020. Results showed that the best subset regression model was well-performed for forecasting PM2.5 concentrations for all sites based on the integration of precipitation, relative humidity, temperature, wind speed, SO2, NOX, and O3. Precipitation, relative humidity, and temperature have negative correlations with PM2.5. The concentration levels of pollutants are much higher at the beginning and end of the year. Random subspace is the optimal model for estimating PM2.5 because it has the least statistical error metrics compared to other models. This study suggests ensemble learning models to estimate PM2.5 concentrations. This study will help quantify ground-level PM2.5 concentration exposure and recommend regional government actions to prevent and regulate PM2.5 air pollution.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11869-023-01329-w.

Situation of Urban Mobility in Pakistan: Before, during, and after the COVID-19 Lockdown with Climatic Risk Perceptions

The coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19) has impacted the usual global movement patterns, atmospheric pollutants, and climatic parameters. The current study sought to assess the impact of the COVID-19 lockdown on urban mobility, atmospheric pollutants, and Pakistan’s climate. For the air pollution assessment, total column ozone (O3), sulphur dioxide (SO2), and tropospheric column nitrogen dioxide (NO2) data from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI), aerosol optical depth (AOD) data from the Multi-angle Imaging Spectroradiometer (MISR), and dust column mass density (PM2.5) data from the MERRA-2 satellite were used. Furthermore, these datasets are linked to climatic parameters (temperature, precipitation, wind speed). The Kruskal–Wallis H test (KWt) is used to compare medians among k groups (k > 2), and the Wilcoxon signed-rank sum test (WRST) is for analyzing the differences between the medians of two datasets. To make the analysis more effective, and to justify that the variations in air quality parameters are due to the COVID-19 pandemic, a Generalized Linear Model (GLM) was used. The findings revealed that the limitations on human mobility have lowered emissions, which has improved the air quality in Pakistan. The results of the study showed that the climatic parameters (precipitation, Tmax, Tmin, and Tmean) have a positive correlation and wind speed has a negative correlation with NO2 and AOD. This study found a significant decrease in air pollutants (NO2, SO2, O3, AOD) of 30–40% in Pakistan during the strict lockdown period. In this duration, the highest drop of about 28% in NO2 concentrations has been found in Karachi. Total column O3 did not show any reduction during the strict lockdown, but a minor decline was depicted as 0.38% in Lahore and 0.55% in Islamabad during the loosening lockdown. During strict lockdown, AOD was reduced up to 23% in Islamabad and 14.46% in Lahore. The results of KWt and WRST evident that all the mobility indices are significant (p < 0.05) in nature. The GLM justified that restraining human activities during the lockdown has decreased anthropogenic emissions and, as a result, improved air quality, particularly in metropolitan areas.