Evaluating machine learning algorithms for predicting maize yield under conservation agriculture in Eastern and Southern Africa

An intelligent agriculture management system for rainfall prediction and fruit health monitoring

Contrary to popular belief, agriculture is becoming more data-driven with artificial intelligence and Internet-of-Things (IoT) playing crucial roles. In this paper, the integrated processing executed by various sensors combined as an IoT pack and driving an intelligent agriculture management system designed for rainfall prediction and fruit health monitoring have been included. The proposed system based on an AI aided model makes use of a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) with long short-term memory (LSTM) layer for rainfall prediction and a CNN with SoftMax layer along with a few deep learning pre-trained models for fruit health monitoring. Another model that works as a combined rainfall predictor and fruit health recognizer is designed using a CNN + LSTM and a multi-head self-attention mechanism which proves to be effective. The entire system is cloud resident and available for use through an application.

Machine Learning in the Analysis of Multispectral Reads in Maize Canopies Responding to Increased Temperatures and Water Deficit

Real-time monitoring of crop responses to environmental deviations represents a new avenue for applications of remote and proximal sensing. Combining the high-throughput devices with novel machine learning (ML) approaches shows promise in the monitoring of agricultural production. The 3 × 2 multispectral arrays with responses at 610 and 680 nm (red), 730 and 760 nm (red-edge) and 810 and 860 nm (infrared) spectra were used to assess the occurrence of leaf rolling (LR) in 545 experimental maize plots measured four times for calibration dataset (n = 2180) and 145 plots measured once for external validation. Multispectral reads were used to calculate 15 simple normalized vegetation indices. Four ML algorithms were assessed: single and multilayer perceptron (SLP and MLP), convolutional neural network (CNN) and support vector machines (SVM) in three validation procedures, which were stratified cross-validation, random subset validation and validation with external dataset. Leaf rolling occurrence caused visible changes in spectral responses and calculated vegetation indexes. All algorithms showed good performance metrics in stratified cross-validation (accuracy >80%). SLP was the least efficient in predictions with external datasets, while MLP, CNN and SVM showed comparable performance. Combining ML with multispectral sensing shows promise in transition towards agriculture based on data-driven decisions especially considering the novel Internet of Things (IoT) avenues.

Corn Yield Prediction With Ensemble CNN-DNN

We investigate the predictive performance of two novel CNN-DNN machine learning ensemble models in predicting county-level corn yields across the US Corn Belt (12 states). The developed data set is a combination of management, environment, and historical corn yields from 1980 to 2019. Two scenarios for ensemble creation are considered: homogenous and heterogenous ensembles. In homogenous ensembles, the base CNN-DNN models are all the same, but they are generated with a bagging procedure to ensure they exhibit a certain level of diversity. Heterogenous ensembles are created from different base CNN-DNN models which share the same architecture but have different hyperparameters. Three types of ensemble creation methods were used to create several ensembles for either of the scenarios: Basic Ensemble Method (BEM), Generalized Ensemble Method (GEM), and stacked generalized ensembles. Results indicated that both designed ensemble types (heterogenous and homogenous) outperform the ensembles created from five individual ML models (linear regression, LASSO, random forest, XGBoost, and LightGBM). Furthermore, by introducing improvements over the heterogenous ensembles, the homogenous ensembles provide the most accurate yield predictions across US Corn Belt states. This model could make 2019 yield predictions with a root mean square error of 866 kg/ha, equivalent to 8.5% relative root mean square and could successfully explain about 77% of the spatio-temporal variation in the corn grain yields. The significant predictive power of this model can be leveraged for designing a reliable tool for corn yield prediction which will in turn assist agronomic decision makers.

Machine Learning in Agriculture: A Comprehensive Updated Review

The digital transformation of agriculture has evolved various aspects of management into artificial intelligent systems for the sake of making value from the ever-increasing data originated from numerous sources. A subset of artificial intelligence, namely machine learning, has a considerable potential to handle numerous challenges in the establishment of knowledge-based farming systems. The present study aims at shedding light on machine learning in agriculture by thoroughly reviewing the recent scholarly literature based on keywords' combinations of "machine learning" along with "crop management", "water management", "soil management", and "livestock management", and in accordance with PRISMA guidelines. Only journal papers were considered eligible that were published within 2018-2020. The results indicated that this topic pertains to different disciplines that favour convergence research at the international level. Furthermore, crop management was observed to be at the centre of attention. A plethora of machine learning algorithms were used, with those belonging to Artificial Neural Networks being more efficient. In addition, maize and wheat as well as cattle and sheep were the most investigated crops and animals, respectively. Finally, a variety of sensors, attached on satellites and unmanned ground and aerial vehicles, have been utilized as a means of getting reliable input data for the data analyses. It is anticipated that this study will constitute a beneficial guide to all stakeholders towards enhancing awareness of the potential advantages of using machine learning in agriculture and contributing to a more systematic research on this topic.

Coupling machine learning and crop modeling improves crop yield prediction in the US Corn Belt

This study investigates whether coupling crop modeling and machine learning (ML) improves corn yield predictions in the US Corn Belt. The main objectives are to explore whether a hybrid approach (crop modeling + ML) would result in better predictions, investigate which combinations of hybrid models provide the most accurate predictions, and determine the features from the crop modeling that are most effective to be integrated with ML for corn yield prediction. Five ML models (linear regression, LASSO, LightGBM, random forest, and XGBoost) and six ensemble models have been designed to address the research question. The results suggest that adding simulation crop model variables (APSIM) as input features to ML models can decrease yield prediction root mean squared error (RMSE) from 7 to 20%. Furthermore, we investigated partial inclusion of APSIM features in the ML prediction models and we found soil moisture related APSIM variables are most influential on the ML predictions followed by crop-related and phenology-related variables. Finally, based on feature importance measure, it has been observed that simulated APSIM average drought stress and average water table depth during the growing season are the most important APSIM inputs to ML. This result indicates that weather information alone is not sufficient and ML models need more hydrological inputs to make improved yield predictions.