Adjusting the risk for trisomy 21 by a simple ultrasound method using fetal long-bone biometry

A new model for providing cell-free DNA and risk assessment for chromosome abnormalities in a public hospital setting

OBJECTIVE

Cell-free DNA (cfDNA) offers highly accurate noninvasive screening for Down syndrome. Incorporating it into routine care is complicated. We present our experience implementing a novel program for cfDNA screening, emphasizing patient education, genetic counseling, and resource management.

STUDY DESIGN

Beginning in January 2013, we initiated a new patient care model in which high-risk patients for aneuploidy received genetic counseling at 12 weeks of gestation. Patients were presented with four pathways for aneuploidy risk assessment and diagnosis: (1) cfDNA; (2) integrated screening; (3) direct-to-invasive testing (chorionic villus sampling or amniocentesis); or (4) no first trimester diagnostic testing/screening. Patients underwent follow-up genetic counseling and detailed ultrasound at 18-20 weeks to review first trimester testing and finalize decision for amniocentesis.

RESULTS

Counseling and second trimester detailed ultrasound were provided to 163 women. Most selected cfDNA screening (69%) over integrated screening (0.6%), direct-to-invasive testing (14.1%), or no screening (16.6%). Amniocentesis rates decreased following implementation of cfDNA screening (19.0% versus 13.0%, P < 0.05).

CONCLUSION

When counseled about screening options, women often chose cfDNA over integrated screening. This program is a model for patient-directed, efficient delivery of a newly available high-level technology in a public health setting. Genetic counseling is an integral part of patient education and determination of plan of care.

Methods for the joint meta-analysis of multiple tests

Existing methods for meta-analysis of diagnostic test accuracy focus primarily on a single index test. We propose models for the joint meta-analysis of studies comparing multiple index tests on the same participants in paired designs. These models respect the grouping of data by studies, account for the within-study correlation between the tests' true-positive rates (TPRs) and between their false-positive rates (FPRs) (induced because tests are applied to the same participants), and allow for between-study correlations between TPRs and FPRs (such as those induced by threshold effects). We estimate models in the Bayesian setting. We demonstrate using a meta-analysis of screening for Down syndrome with two tests: shortened humerus (arm bone), and shortened femur (thigh bone). Separate and joint meta-analyses yielded similar TPR and FPR estimates. For example, the summary TPR for a shortened humerus was 35.3% (95% credible interval (CrI): 26.9, 41.8%) versus 37.9% (27.7, 50.3%) with joint versus separate meta-analysis. Joint meta-analysis is more efficient when calculating comparative accuracy: the difference in the summary TPRs was 0.0% (-8.9, 9.5%; TPR higher for shortened humerus) with joint versus 2.6% (-14.7, 19.8%) with separate meta-analyses. Simulation and empirical analyses are needed to refine the role of the proposed methodology.

First-trimester maternal serum levels of placental hormones are independent predictors of second-trimester fetal growth parameters

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether first-trimester maternal serum levels of pregnancy-associated plasma protein-A (PAPP-A) and free beta-human chorionic gonadotropin (fbeta-hCG) are independent predictors of second-trimester fetal growth parameters.

METHODS

This was a cohort study over a 1-year period involving 594 Chinese women who underwent both first-trimester combined screening for Down syndrome and a routine second-trimester ultrasound examination. Maternal PAPP-A and fbeta-hCG levels (expressed in log(10) of multiples of median (MoM)), crown-rump length (CRL) (expressed in standardized Z-score (Z-CRL)), and maternal height and weight, were correlated with the Z-score of biparietal diameter (Z-BPD), femur length (Z-FL) and abdominal circumference (Z-AC) measured in the second trimester, using the Pearson test, followed by multiple regression analysis.

RESULTS

Z-BPD, Z-FL and Z-AC were positively correlated with log(10) PAPP-A MoM, CRL and maternal height (all P < 0.05), while log(10) fbeta-hCG MoM was negatively correlated with Z-AC (P < 0.05). After controlling for the effects of CRL, maternal height and weight, log(10) PAPP-A MoM was found to be an independent positive predictor of Z-FL (r = 0.797, P < 0.001) and Z-AC (r = 0.305, P = 0.049), and log(10) fbeta-hCG MoM was an independent negative predictor of Z-FL (r = -0.381, P = 0.023) and Z-AC (r = -0.418, P = 0.002). Neither hormonal level was related to Z-BPD.

CONCLUSIONS

First-trimester PAPP-A and fbeta-hCG are independent factors that influence subsequent fetal growth. PAPP-A level is positively correlated with FL and AC in the second trimester, while fbeta-hCG level is negatively correlated with them. However, BPD is not affected by either of the hormones.

[Role of "subtle" ultrasonographic signs during antenatal screening for trisomy 21 during the second trimester of pregnancy: meta-analysis and CPDPN protocol of the Grenoble University Hospital]

OBJECTIVE

A meta-analysis about subtle ultrasonographic signs in second trimester of pregnancy.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

196 articles dealing with the subject--from 1985 to July 2002--were studied. Data on the 11 reported signs were collected from 92 theoretically and/or statistically valid studies. Then, the studies were selected according to several criteria: isolated characteristic, defined thresholds, calculable sensitivity and specificity. After checking for homogeneity, a likelihood ratio was calculated for some of the signs.

RESULTS

This meta-analysis of the second trimester ultrasonographic signs of Down's syndrome enabled us to estimate the likelihood ratio (LHR) of six signs. At 22 weeks'gestation (WG) these signs are: pyelectasis equal to or greater than 5 mm; nuchal fold thickness equal to or greater than 6 mm; persistence of choroid plexus cysts; shortness of the femur and humerus below the tenth percentile; hyperechogenic bowe; and nasal bone length less than 2.5 mm.

CONCLUSION

These validated ultrasonographic signs are independent of nuchal translucency thickness at 12 WG and of maternal serum biochemistry. This allows to calculate a combinate risk for nuchal translucency, maternal serum biochemistry and second trimester ultrasonographic signs when they are validated.

Fetal nasal bone length in euploid and aneuploid fetuses between 11 and 20 weeks' gestation: a prospective study

OBJECTIVE

To develop normative data for nasal bone length between 11 and 20 weeks' gestation and to assess the utility of nasal bone hypoplasia in the detection of fetal aneuploidy in the second trimester.

METHODS

Well-dated, nonanomalous fetuses were examined between 11 and 20.9 weeks' gestation. The nasal bone was assessed and measured, and normative data from 11 to 20 weeks' gestation were determined. The nasal bone lengths in fetuses with confirmed aneuploidy were compared with the normative data.

RESULTS

The fetal nasal bone length increased linearly with advancing gestational age. Nomograms including the 10th, 50th, and 90th percentiles were created. Nasal bone hypoplasia was seen in 6 of 6 cases of fetal trisomy in the second trimester.

CONCLUSIONS

Nasal bone hypoplasia in the early second trimester identifies a cohort of fetuses at high risk for aneuploidy.

Combined sonographic and biochemical markers for Down syndrome screening

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the efficacy of fetal nuchal fold thickness and proximal long bone biometric measurements in modifying Down syndrome serum screening risk in a population of women referred for second-trimester sonography.

METHODS

Sonographic biometric measurements and biochemical markers were combined retrospectively for 2533 women with known pregnancy outcomes. Four different screening methods were compared: (1) advanced maternal age; (2) biochemical serum screening markers; (3) modification of serum screening risks on the basis of categorical cutoffs for nuchal fold and femur and humerus length; and (4) a combined approach in which the sonographic measurements were treated as multiples of the medians and entered, together with the serum screening results, into a multivariable algorithm. The efficacy was compared at second-trimester risk cutoffs of 1:270 and 1:100.

RESULTS

Down syndrome was present in 30 of the 2533 pregnancies (1 in 84). With the use of the 1:270 cutoff, biochemical screening had 93% sensitivity and a 40% false-positive rate. With application of the categorical method of fixed cutoffs to incorporate fetal biometry, the false-positive rate was reduced to 33% with no loss of sensitivity. The combined model had 83% sensitivity and a 19% false-positive rate. The combined method had the highest positive predictive value (1 in 20). Similar gains in efficacy could be shown with the 1:100 cutoff.

CONCLUSIONS

For this high-risk group, the multivariate model that combines serum screening and sonography can result in a substantial reduction in the number of amniocenteses. Although the addition of the sonographic biometric measurements resulted in some Down syndrome cases being missed, the net effect was a large improvement in the overall positive predictive value of the screening.

Variation of fetal humeral length in second-trimester fetuses according to race and ethnicity

OBJECTIVE

To determine the influence of race and ethnicity on the expected humeral length based on biparietal diameter measured in second-trimester fetuses.

METHODS

We searched our ultrasound, obstetric, and cytogenetic databases from 1995 through 2001 for all fetuses who underwent an anatomic survey between 15 and 22 weeks' gestation. Fetuses with Down syndrome were identified and removed for separate analysis. Linear regression curves were generated for humeral length by biparietal diameter according to race and ethnicity. Analysis of variance was used to compare the mean variation of observed from expected humeral length by biparietal diameter according to race and ethnicity.

RESULTS

There were 11,278 humeral length-by-biparietal diameter pairs that were available for analysis in our population, including 4202 African American, 2269 Hispanic, 639 Asian, and 4168 white fetuses. Humeral length was highly correlated with biparietal diameter for each race (R2 = 0.8). There were no differences in mean variances according to race or ethnicity (P = .75).

CONCLUSIONS

Race and ethnicity do not affect the mean regression line of expected humeral length by biparietal diameter among fetuses in the second trimester. Genetic sonographic norms, therefore, do not require race- or ethnic-specific formulas for humeral length.

Second trimester ultrasound screening for chromosomal abnormalities

The use of prenatal ultrasound has proven efficacious for the prenatal diagnosis of chromosomal abnormalities. The first sonographic sign of Down syndrome, the thickened nuchal fold, was first described in 1985. Since that time, multiple sonographically-identified markers have been described as associated with Down syndrome. The genetic sonogram, involving a detailed search for sonographic signs of aneuploidy, can be used to both identify fetuses at high risk for aneuploidy and, when normal, can be used to decrease the risk for aneuploidy for a pregnancy when no sonographic markers are identified. Combining the genetic sonogram with maternal serum screening may be the best method of assessing aneuploidy risk for women who desire such an assessment in the second trimester. Trisomy 18, Trisomy 13, and triploidy are typically associated with sonographically identified abnormalities and have a high prenatal detection rate. The use of the described sonographic signs in low-risk women requires further investigation, however, patients at increased risk for aneuploidy due to advanced maternal age or abnormal serum screening can benefit from a genetic sonogram screening for sonographic signs of aneuploidy to adjust their baseline risk of an affected fetus.

A new mathematical formula for predicting long bone length in early pregnancy

OBJECTIVE

To propose new mathematical formulae to estimate fetal long bone biometry in early pregnancy and to establish their efficacy in comparison to previously constructed mathematical formulae.

METHODS

A study population of 1960 singleton euploid fetuses was referred for transvaginal ultrasound examinations between 71 and 112 days of gestation prior to genetic amniocentesis. To determine the relationship between the biparietal diameter and long bone length, a sample group of 400 randomly chosen normal fetuses was evaluated. Regression equations were derived, then tested in the remaining 1560 control fetuses and compared with previously reported mathematical formulae by other authors. Mean absolute error, mean absolute percentage error and mean systematic error with their standard deviations were calculated.

RESULTS

The relationships between femur or humerus length vs. biparietal diameter (BPD) and gestational age (GA) were, respectively: expected femur length = -16.92108 + 0.4569402 x BPD + 0.171617 x GA (P < 0.001) and expected humerus length = -16.28531 + 0.4283019 x BPD + 0.1696017 x GA (P < 0.001). The confidence intervals of the predicted values for different values of biparietal diameter and gestational age and confidence intervals for the regression coefficients, such as the distribution of the residuals, are given. All previous formulae obtained by transabdominal ultrasound demonstrated an overestimation of expected long bones measurements; this was reduced using different formulae obtained in early pregnancy. Using our mathematical formulae, the mean absolute percentage error and the mean systematic error in estimating femur and humerus length were very low (11.15% and -2.02%; 10.59% and -1.74%, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

The new ultrasonographic morphometric models derived from transvaginal measurements in early pregnancy show a good reliability in estimating fetal long bone length.

Trisomy 21. Second-trimester ultrasound

Not every aspect of sonographic examination reveals karyotypic abnormalities. Ultrasound examination of a fetus with trisomy 21 generally reveals normal amniotic fluid, normal placentation, and normal fetal growth. In addition, other chromosomal abnormalities have many of the same sonographic findings as Down syndrome, and many findings have a large overlap with phenotypically normal fetuses. The importance of second-trimester ultrasound screening for Down syndrome has remained great because of its ease of use and relative effectiveness. Trained sonographers can adjust the relative risk for trisomy 21 and alter the need for genetic amniocentesis. It is important that parents understand the limitations of a screening test and the risks and benefits of possible subsequent confirmatory testing. If a major structural abnormality is identified on ultrasound, karyotype determination should be considered. Nuchal thickness in the first or second trimester remains the most clinically useful marker for trisomy 21. The predictive value of all the markers depends on the population studied and can be modified by a host of biochemical markers and historical factors. If fetal karyotype analysis could be performed without sampling through the uterus, prenatal diagnosis could be offered to all pregnant women, and screening would be unnecessary. Despite its limitations, ultrasound will have an important role in prenatal diagnosis at least until isolating and testing fetal cells from maternal blood or other sources becomes practical and widely available. Whether used alone or in conjunction with additional biochemical or molecular serum markers, ultrasound is an important and powerful tool in prenatal genetic evaluation.

Second trimester markers of aneuploidy

The risks of aneuploidy associated with identification of a sonographic marker in the low risk population is controversial. Prior risk estimates have been derived usually from high risk populations. Screening programmes in the first trimester, second trimester and combined first and second trimester will undoubtedly alter the second trimester scan as a screening tool for aneuploidy. This chapter reviews the current sonographic markers and the difficulties in their application to the general population.

Femur length and trisomy 21: impact of gestational age on screening efficiency

OBJECTIVE

This study assesses two methods used to define relatively short femur in screening for trisomy 21 and examines changes in performance of screening with gestational age.

DESIGN

Retrospective analysis of data on menstrual age, femur length (FL) and biparietal diameter (BPD) in 49 trisomy 21 pregnancies and 6069 normal controls. Reference ranges were derived for BPD/FL versus menstrual age and for FL versus BPD. Two methods of defining short femur (BPD/FL and observed-to-expected FL ratio) were examined for false-positive rates and detection rates for trisomy 21 at different gestational ages.

RESULTS

In the control group the BPD/FL ratio and its standard deviation decreased with menstrual age. Trisomy 21 was associated with a significantly higher BPD/FL ratio (P < 0.001) and the deviation increased significantly with menstrual age (P < 0.05). Eleven percent of 28 fetuses examined at 15-17 weeks had a BPD/FL above the 95th centile compared with 24% of 21 fetuses examined at 18-20 weeks (P = 0.40). The median observed-to-expected FL ratio in the control group was 1.0 throughout the gestational age range but the standard deviation decreased significantly with menstrual age (P < 0.01). Trisomy 21 was associated with a significantly reduced observed-to-expected FL ratio (P < 0.001) and the deviation increased significantly with menstrual age (P < 0.05). A fixed cut-off of 0.91 for observed-to-expected FL ratio provided a false-positive rate of 12% at 15-17 weeks compared with 6% at 18-20 weeks of gestation (P < 0.001) with detection rates of 29 and 38%, respectively (P = 0.73).

CONCLUSION

Irrespective of the definition used to define the condition, relatively short femur is a poor marker for trisomy 21 particularly when the assessment takes place before 18 weeks of gestation.

Ultrasound screening for fetal chromosome anomalies

Ultrasound evidence for aneuploidy may be found in almost every organ of the fetus and can be used to modify the risk of aneuploidy. The diagnosis of these minor anomalies on second-trimester ultrasonography will increase the risk of an abnormal karyotype whereas the absence of these findings may reduce this danger. The most specific and most ominous isolated markers for fetal aneuploidy are nuchal findings (edema or cysts), indicating the need to obtain a fetal karyotype in all cases irrespective of maternal age or results of biochemical serum screening. Hyperechoic fetal bowel is apparently also a strong indicator of fetal aneuploidy. Other isolated sonographic markers may increase the risk of an abnormal karyotype three- to ninefold. Most sonographic markers for aneuploidy specify an increased risk for Down syndrome, but choroid plexus cysts are apparently more specific for trisomy 18. Along with other screening methods, ultrasound screening for fetal aneuploidy should be used routinely to identify additional pregnancies at need for evaluation of fetal karyotype.

Critical appraisal of the use of nuchal fold thickness measurements for the prediction of Down syndrome

OBJECTIVE

Nuchal fold thickness is the best ultrasonographic predictor of fetal trisomy 21. However, the risk assigned on the basis of the commonly used threshold of nuchal fold thickness >/=6 mm does not take into consideration the significant associations between nuchal fold thickness and gestational age and between maternal age and Down syndrome. We propose a new method of calculating Down syndrome probability that takes into account both gestational age at examination and previously assessed probability of Down syndrome.

STUDY DESIGN

Nuchal fold thickness was measured at ultrasonographic examination at 14 to 22 weeks' gestation without previous knowledge of the fetal karyotype. Nuchal cystic hygromas were excluded from analysis. Statistical analyses included correlation, logistic regression to control for other ultrasonographic predictors of trisomy 21 and for maternal age, receiver operating characteristic curve, and likelihood ratios (defined as the ratio of the sensitivity to the false-positive rate). P <.05 was considered significant.

RESULTS

Mean gestational age at ultrasonography was 16.9 weeks' gestation (range, 14-22 weeks' gestation). Mean (+/-SD) nuchal fold thickness in fetuses with trisomy 21 (4.7 +/- 1.6 mm; n = 29) was greater than in euploid fetuses (3.2 +/- 0.9; n = 780; P <.001). Logistic regression analysis established that nuchal fold thickness was a significant predictor of trisomy 21 independent both of the other ultrasonographic markers and of maternal age (P <.001). Regression analysis showed that nuchal fold thickness was significantly correlated with gestational age among both fetuses with trisomy 21 and euploid fetuses and that the regression line of fetuses with trisomy 21 had a slope similar to that of euploid fetuses. The difference between observed and expected nuchal fold thicknesses on the basis of the biparietal diameter (as a function of gestational age) was used to obviate the confounding effect of gestational age. Differences between observed and expected nuchal fold thicknesses were then used to calculate likelihood ratios. These likelihood ratios could then be multiplied by the individual prior probability to obtain a patient-specific Down syndrome probability.

CONCLUSION

Nuchal fold thickness is correlated with gestational age in both euploid fetuses and fetuses with Down syndrome. Use of the difference between observed and expected nuchal fold thicknesses to determine likelihood ratios allows the calculation of individual posterior probabilities of Down syndrome that take into consideration both gestational age and maternal age.

Indication-specific accuracy of second-trimester genetic ultrasonography for the detection of trisomy 21

OBJECTIVE

The object of this study was to determine whether there are any clinically significant indication-specific variations in the accuracy of second-trimester genetic ultrasonography and to provide a risk adjustment for fetal trisomy 21 according to the results of genetic ultrasonography.

STUDY DESIGN

From November 1, 1992, to September 30, 1998, a second-trimester genetic sonogram was offered to all pregnant women who were at an increased risk for fetal trisomy 21 (>/=1:274) because of either advanced maternal age (>/=35 years) or abnormal serum biochemical profile or both of these. Outcome information included the results of genetic amniocentesis if performed and the results of pediatric assessment and follow-up after birth. In determining diagnostic accuracy of the genetic sonogram the presence of >/=1 abnormal ultrasonographic marker was considered an abnormal test result.

RESULTS

A total of 1835 fetuses with known outcomes underwent genetic ultrasonography between 15 and 24 weeks' gestation; of these 1792 had normal results, 34 had trisomy 21, and 9 had other chromosomal abnormalities. The likelihood of fetal trisomy 21 was reduced by 80% after a normal result of genetic ultrasonography. The overall sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values of genetic ultrasonography for the detection of trisomy 21 were 82%, 91%, 15%, and 99.6%, respectively. There were no significant indication-specific variations in the accuracy of second-trimester ultrasonography. The sensitivity for the detection of fetal trisomy 21 ranged from 80% among women with advanced maternal age to 100% among women with both an abnormal biochemical profile and advanced maternal age.

CONCLUSIONS

The likelihood of fetal trisomy 21 risk was reduced 80% after a normal result of genetic ultrasonography. In addition there were no significant indication-specific variations in the detection rate of genetic ultrasonography.

The Use of Ultrasound to Identify Fetuses with Down Syndrome

Karyotyping by invasive prenatal testing such as amniocentesis or chorionic villi sampling is the only definitive method of determining Down syndrome. However, both methods are associated with procedure-related risks. The combination of two noninvasive tools, the maternal serum triple screen and the ultrasound examination, provides a way of identifying fetuses at higher risk for Down syndrome. Ultrasound markers are sonographic findings that may exist as structural malformations or normal variants that are more prevalent in Down syndrome. Depending on the particular marker, either a single marker or a cluster may indicate an increased risk of an affected fetus. Sonographic markers include duodenal atresia, cardiac defects, brachycephaly, mild ventriculomegaly, flattened facial profile, thickened nuchal skin fold, fetal hydrops, hyperechoic bowel, choroid plexus cysts, pyelectasis, shortened extremities, echogenic intracardiac foci, greater iliac wing angle, and specific findings in the fetal hand and foot.

An economic evaluation of second-trimester genetic ultrasonography for prenatal detection of down syndrome

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this study was to perform an economic evaluation of second-trimester genetic ultrasonography for prenatal detection of Down syndrome. More specifically, we sought to determine the following: (1) the diagnostic accuracy requirements (from the cost-benefit point of view) of genetic ultrasonography versus genetic amniocentesis for women at increased risk for fetal Down syndrome and (2) the possible economic impact of second-trimester genetic ultrasonography for the US population on the basis of the ultrasonographic accuracies reported in previously published studies.

STUDY DESIGN

A cost-benefit equation was developed from the hypothesis that the cost of universal genetic amniocentesis of patients at increased risk for carrying a fetus with Down syndrome should be at least equal to the cost of universal genetic ultrasonography with amniocentesis used only for those with abnormal ultrasonographic results. The main components of the equation included the diagnostic accuracy of genetic ultrasonography (sensitivity and specificity for detecting Down syndrome), the costs of the amniocentesis package and genetic ultrasonography, and the lifetime cost of Down syndrome cases not detected by the genetic ultrasonography. After appropriate manipulation of the equation a graph was constructed, representing the balance between sensitivity and false-positive rate of genetic ultrasonography; this was used to examine the accuracy of previously published studies from the cost-benefit point of view. Sensitivity analyses included individual risks for Down syndrome ranging from 1:261 (risk of a 35-year-old at 18 weeks' gestation) to 1:44 (risk of a 44-year-old at 18 weeks' gestation). This economic evaluation was conducted from the societal perspective.

RESULTS

Genetic ultrasonography was found to be economically beneficial only if the overall sensitivity for detecting Down syndrome was >74%. Even then, the cost-benefit ratio depended on the corresponding false-positive rate. Of the 7 published studies that used multiple ultrasonographic markers for genetic ultrasonography, 6 had accuracies compatible with benefits. The required ultrasonographic accuracy (sensitivity and false-positive rate) varied according to the prevalence of Down syndrome in the population tested.

CONCLUSIONS

The cost-benefit ratio of second-trimester genetic ultrasonography depends on its diagnostic accuracy, and it is beneficial only when its overall sensitivity for Down syndrome is >74%.

Obstetric sonography. Who to scan, when to scan, and by whom

Most patients in the United States have an indication for and receive sonography during pregnancy. The issue of routine sonography for low-risk women continues to be contentious even though the randomized trials have not been able to demonstrate a clear benefit. Clinics that routinely offer sonography for all pregnancies usually schedule such a procedure at 16 to 20 weeks of gestation. Although great progress is being made in the first-trimester diagnoses of congenital anomalies, most targeted studies are performed at 18 to 20 weeks of gestation. Although many private obstetricians perform in-office sonography, the highest rates of detection of congenital anomalies are seen in tertiary care settings such as a university medical center. In difficult or otherwise high-risk cases, a consulting perinatologist is commonly the physician most likely to integrate the ultrasound findings with a rational management plan for the remainder of the pregnancy and for delivery.

An alternative for women initially declining genetic amniocentesis: individual Down syndrome odds on the basis of maternal age and multiple ultrasonographic markers

OBJECTIVE

Our purpose was to develop a method of calculating the individual odds of Down syndrome on the basis of a combination of maternal age and multiple ultrasonographic parameters that can be used to counsel women at high risk who initially decline amniocentesis.

STUDY DESIGN

Maternal age and ultrasonographic biometry data were collected prospectively on 3254 normal and 30 Down syndrome singleton fetuses between 15 and 24 weeks' gestation. Humerus length data were expressed as multiples of the normal median. Log transformation of the humerus length data permitted their expression in gaussian frequency distributions and the calculation of likelihood ratios for Down syndrome on the basis of humerus length. We also developed likelihood ratios on the basis of the degree of nuchal skinfold thickening and the presence or absence of hyperechoic fetal bowel and hypoplastic fifth digit.

RESULTS

The ultrasonographic parameters and maternal age did not significantly correlate with each other and were significant independent predictors of Down syndrome. We therefore calculated the individual odds of Down syndrome by using the product of the age-related risk and the likelihood ratios associated with nuchal thickening, humerus length shortening, and the presence or absence of hyperechoic fetal bowel or fifth digit hypoplasia, respectively. At a Down syndrome risk level of >1:50, a 60.0% detection rate with 4.5% false-positive rate was observed with a screen-positive rate of 5.5%, positive predictive value of 1:10, and odds ratio (95% confidence interval) of 28.4 (12.8 to 64.0).

CONCLUSION

This is the first report of individual odds calculation based on multiple midtrimester biometry parameters and maternal age. The screening efficiency is similar to that reported with triple-analyte serum screening. These data are useful for counseling women who are at increased Down syndrome risk and initially decline amniocentesis.

Subtle ultrasonographic anomalies: do they improve the Down syndrome detection rate?

OBJECTIVE

Our purpose was to determine whether the identification of subtle anomalies further improves Down syndrome detection over standard ultrasonographic biometry and the detection of gross morphologic defects.

STUDY DESIGN

The screening efficiency of clinodactyly, dilated renal pelvis (> or =4 mm), echogenic bowel, mild ventriculomegaly (> or =10 to 15 mm), and two-vessel cord was determined prospectively in midtrimester fetuses at amniocentesis. The screening efficiency of increased nuchal thickness and shortened long-bone length (standard biometry) and gross morphologic defects was determined for comparison. Multiple backward stepwise regression analysis was used to determine which subtle anomalies significantly correlated with Down syndrome detection rate and whether they increased Down syndrome detection over that with standard biometry and morphologic defects.

RESULTS

Although all subtle anomalies except two-vessel cord correlated with the presence of Down syndrome on univariate analysis, only echogenic bowel (Wald chi2 = 15.0211, p = 0.0001) and clinodactyly (Wald chi2 = 9.4273, p = 0.002) persisted in regression analysis of the subtle anomaly group. When either of the above-described anomalies was present, the detection rate for Down syndrome was 28.6%, p < 0.00001. For the combination of standard biometry (either increased nuchal thickness or short humerus) or gross anatomic defect, Down syndrome detection rate was 53.3% (p < 0.00000001). This increased to 63.2% (p < 0.00000001) when subtle anatomic defects (either echogenic bowel or clinodactyly) were included in the definition of an abnormal sonogram.

CONCLUSION

Subtle anomalies, of which echogenic bowel and clinodactyly are the most significant, further increase Down syndrome screening efficiency over standard biometry or the finding of gross anatomic defect. Our data appear to support the addition of subtle anomaly findings to ultrasonographic screening for Down syndrome.