Do High Visibility Enforcement programs affect aggressive driving behavior? An empirical analysis using Naturalistic Driving Study data

Speeding behavior among teenage drivers during the learner and early independent driving stage: A case study approach

INTRODUCTION

Speed is a primary contributing factor in teenage driver crashes. Yet, there are significant methodological challenges in measuring real-world speeding behavior.

METHOD

This case study approach analyzed naturalistic driving data for six teenage drivers in a longitudinal study that spanned the learner and early independent driving stages of licensure in Maryland, United States. Trip duration, travel speed and length were recorded using global position system (GPS) data. These were merged with maps of the Maryland road system, which included posted speed limit (PSL) to determine speeding events in each recorded trip. Speeding was defined as driving at the speed of 10 mph higher than the posted speed limit and lasting longer than 6 s. Using these data, two different speeding measures were developed: (1) Trips with Speeding Episodes, and (2) Verified Speeding Time. Conclusions & Practical Applications: Across both measures, speeding behavior during independent licensure was greater than during the learner period. These measures improved on previous methodologies by using PSL information and eliminating the need for mapping software. This approach can be scaled for use in larger samples and has the potential to advance understanding about the trajectory of speeding behaviors among novice teenage drivers.

Injury severity prediction of cyclist crashes using random forests and random parameters logit models

Cycling provides numerous benefits to individuals and to society but the burden of road traffic injuries and fatalities is disproportionately sustained by cyclists. Without awareness of the contributory factors of cyclist death and injury, the capability to implement context-specific and appropriate measures is severely limited. In this paper, we investigated the effects of the characteristics related to the road, the environment, the vehicle involved, the driver, and the cyclist on severity of crashes involving cyclists analysing 72,363 crashes that occurred in Great Britain in the period 2016-2018. Both a machine learning method, as the Random Forest (RF), and an econometric model, as the Random Parameters Logit Model (RPLM), were implemented. Three different RF algorithms were performed, namely the traditional RF, the Weighted Subspace RF, and the Random Survival Forest. The latter demonstrated superior predictive performances both in terms of F-measure and G-mean. The main result of the Random Survival Forest is the variable importance that provides a ranked list of the predictors associated with the fatal and severe cyclist crashes. For fatal classification, 19 variables showed a normalized importance higher than 5% with the second involved vehicle manoeuvring and the gender of the driver of the second vehicle having the greatest predictive ability. For serious injury classification, 13 variables showed a normalized importance higher than 5% with the bike leaving the carriageway having the greatest normalized importance. Furthermore, each path from the root node to the leaf nodes has been retraced the way back generating 361 if-then rules with fatal crash as consequent and 349 if-then rules with serious injury crash as consequent. The RPLM showed significant unobserved heterogeneity in the data finding four normal distributed indicator variables with random parameters: cyclist age ≥ 75 (fatal prediction), cyclist gender male (fatal and serious prediction), and driver aged 55-64 (serious prediction). The model's McFadden Pseudo R2 is equal to 0.21, indicating a very good fit. Furthermore, to understand the magnitude of the effects and the contribution of each variable to injury severity probabilities the pseudo-elasticity was assessed, gaining valuable insights into the relative importance and influence of the variables. The RF and the RPLM resulted complementary in identifying several roadways, environmental, vehicle, driver, and cyclist-related factors associated with higher crash severity. Based on the identified contributory factors, safety countermeasures useful to develop strategies for making bike a safer and more friendly form of transport were recommended.

Application of naturalistic driving data: A systematic review and bibliometric analysis

The application of naturalistic driving data (NDD) has the potential to answer critical research questions in the area of driving behavior assessment, as well as the impact of exogenous and endogenous factors on driver safety. However, the presence of a large number of research domains and analysis foci makes a systematic review of NDD applications challenging in terms of information density and complexity. While previous research has focused on the execution of naturalistic driving studies and on specific analysis techniques, a multifaceted aggregation of NDD applications in Intelligent Transportation System (ITS) research is still unavailable. In spite of the current body of work being regularly updated with new findings, evolutionary nuances in this field remain relatively unknown. To address these deficits, the evolutionary trend of NDD applications was assessed using research performance analysis and science mapping. Subsequently, a systematic review was conducted using the keywords "naturalistic driving data" and "naturalistic driving study data". As a result, a set of 393 papers, Published between January 2002-March 2022, was thematically clustered based on the most common application areas utilizing NDD. the results highlighted the relationship between the most crucial research domains in ITS, where NDD had been incorporated, and application areas, modeling objectives, and analysis techniques involving naturalistic databases.

Analysis of driver characteristics, self-reported psychology measures and driving performance measures associated with aggressive driving

Whereas aggressive driving mainly causes speed-related crashes, aggressive driving may be reduced to improve road safety by identifying aggressive driving behaviour, aggressive drivers' characteristics, and their underlying motivational and psychological processes. Previous studies show that both driving performance and self-reported measures of aggressive driving are effective means to identify aggressive drivers. However, these studies assessed aggressive driving patterns across only a limited number of events, did not relate driver characteristics to aggressive driving in each event, and used chiefly vehicle kinematics variables (e.g., mean speed), but not vehicle dynamics variables (e.g., brake pedal force) which better capture driver reaction and decision-making. To address these limitations, this study assessed driver characteristics, self-reported psychological measures, and driving performance measures associated with aggressive driving among 55 drivers' behaviours in 9driving events using a driving simulator and survey responses. The results of structural equation models showed that unique aggressive driving patterns and driver characteristics related to aggressive driving vary among different driving events. As such, we recommend road safety policies to reduce aggressive driving based on the findings in this study.

The association between the Big Five personality traits and driving behaviors: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Although a large number of studies have examined the relationship between the Big Five personality traits and driving behaviors, consistent evidence for their relationships is still lacking. The main purpose of this study was to systematically review the relationships between the Big Five personality traits and various driving behaviors with different intentions (including risky, aggressive, and positive driving behaviors) through a meta-analysis. A total of 34 articles met the inclusion criteria for the meta-analysis. The results showed that risky and aggressive driving behaviors were negatively associated with conscientiousness (r = -0.21; r = -0.26), agreeableness (r = -0.23; r = -0.37), and openness (r = -0.08; r = -0.07), positively associated with neuroticism (r = 0.11; r = 0.26), and nonsignificantly associated with extraversion (r = 0.06; r = -0.06). Positive driving behaviors were positively associated with conscientiousness (r = 0.30), agreeableness (r = 0.32) and openness (r = 0.20) but nonsignificantly associated with extraversion (r = 0.08) and neuroticism (r = -0.10). In addition, the association between the Big Five personality traits and driving behaviors could be moderated by age, gender and type of personality measure. In conclusion, this study contributes to the literature by quantitatively synthesizing existing findings and reconciling previous debates on the relationship between the Big Five personality traits and driving behaviors. From a practical perspective, our findings provide valuable insights into driver selection and screening, policy development, and safety intervention design.

Taxi drivers' traffic violations detection using random forest algorithm: A case study in China

OBJECTIVE

To effectively explore the impacts of several key factors on taxi drivers' traffic violations and provide traffic management departments with scientific decisions to reduce traffic fatalities and injuries.

METHODS

43,458 electronic enforcement data about taxi drivers' traffic violations in Nanchang City, Jiangxi Province, China, from July 1, 2020, to June 30, 2021, were utilized to explore the characteristics of traffic violations. A random forest algorithm was used to predict the severity of taxi drivers' traffic violations and 11 factors affecting traffic violations, including time, road conditions, environment, and taxi companies were analyzed using the Shapley Additionality Explanation (SHAP) framework.

RESULTS

Firstly, the ensemble method Balanced Bagging Classifier (BBC) was applied to balance the dataset. The results showed that the imbalance ratio (IR) of the original imbalanced dataset reduced from 6.61% to 2.60%. Moreover, a prediction model for the severity of taxi drivers' traffic violations was established by using the Random Forest, and the results showed that accuracy, m_F1, m_G-mean, m_AUC, and m_AP obtained 0.877, 0.849, 0.599, 0.976, and 0.957, respectively. Compared with the algorithms of Decision Tree, XG Boost, Ada Boost, and Neural Network, the performance measures of the prediction model based on Random Forest were the best. Finally, the SHAP framework was used to improve the interpretability of the model and identify important factors affecting taxi drivers' traffic violations. The results showed that functional districts, location of the violation, and road grade were found to have a high impact on the probability of traffic violations; their mean SHAP values were 0.39, 0.36, and 0.26, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Findings of this paper may help to discover the relationship between the influencing factors and the severity of traffic violations, and provide a theoretical basis for reducing the traffic violations of taxi drivers and improving the road safety management.

The impact of drivers' short-term exposure to air pollution on traffic deaths

Air pollution may decrease drivers' driving performance thus leading to traffic accidents, but this impact is almost ignored in existing literature. We investigate the short-term effect of air pollution on traffic deaths using the high-dimensional fixed effect model and instrument variable method based on the daily-city panel data in China from 2013 to 2018. The results show that drivers' short-term exposure to air pollution significantly increases the number of traffic deaths. For every 1 ug/m³ increase of PM2.5 concentration each day, the daily number of traffic deaths will increase by 0.64%. The impacts of air pollution on traffic deaths can last for 2 days. We also find that impact varies from different driver groups.The male, the young (age under 22), the elderly (age over 60), and the two-wheeler drivers are more vulnerable. Worse air pollution may associate with more bad driving behaviors and less good manners. In this article, we reveal a new factor that leads to traffic deaths, i.e., air pollution, and we also put forward some prevention strategies which may provide policy references for traffic safety.

Analysis of pedestrian accident injury-severities at road junctions and crossings using an advanced random parameter modelling framework: The case of Scotland

This paper investigates the determinants of injury severities in pedestrian-motor vehicle accidents at signalised and unsignalised junctions, and at physically-controlled and human-controlled crossings in Scotland. The accident data were drawn from the official police crash report database of the UK spanning a period between 2010 and 2018. Correlated random parameter ordered probit models with heterogeneity in the means were developed in order to account for the multi-layered impact of unobserved heterogeneity on statistical estimation. The model estimation results showed that the severities of accident injuries are affected by roadway, location, weather, vehicle, and driver characteristics as well as temporal attributes (including time and day of the accident). Factors such as the urban context, lighting and weather conditions and road surface conditions were found to result in correlated random parameters, thus capturing the intricate, yet interactive effects of unobserved heterogeneity, and particularly the unobserved behavioural response of road users to different traffic control types at junctions and crossings. Vehicle type, driver's gender and day-of-the-week were observed to influence the random parameters' distributions. Empirically, the results showcase variations in the determinants of injury severities at signalised and unsignalised junctions, and at physically-controlled and human-controlled crossings. Even though most of these variations were related to the magnitude of impact of the determinants, differences in the directional effects on injury severities were also identified, mainly for factors related to weather conditions, hazard presence on the road, and temporal characteristics of the accidents.

Assessing School Travel Safety in Scotland: An Empirical Analysis of Injury Severities for Accidents in the School Commute

School travel has been a significant source of safety concerns for children, parents, and public authorities. It will continue to be a source of concerns as long as severe accidents continue to emerge during pupils’ commute to school. This study provides an empirical analysis of the factors influencing the injury severities of the accidents that occurred on trips to or from school in Scotland. Using 9-year data from the STATS19 public database, random parameter binary logit models with allowances for heterogeneity in the means were estimated in order to investigate injury severities in urban and rural areas. The results suggested that factors such as the road type, lighting conditions, vehicle type, and age of the driver or casualty constitute the common determinants of injury severities in both urban and rural areas. Single carriageways and vehicles running on heavy oil engines were found to induce opposite effects in urban and rural areas, whereas the involvement of a passenger car in the accident decomposed various layers of unobserved heterogeneity for both area types. The findings of this study can inform future policy interventions with a focus on traffic calming in the proximity of schools.

Aggressive driving behavior prediction considering driver's intention based on multivariate-temporal feature data

Aggressive driving behavior is mainly motivated by the intention of the driver; therefore, the underlying intention of behavior should be considered in investigating aggressive driving behavior. However, existing aggressive driving behavior prediction methods are not advanced in a compelling of characterizing the driver's intention among a large set of attributes and describing the random process among time-varying transversion. To address this, this paper proposes a prediction method, which is structured with a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) and attention-based Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) Network. HMM is applied to extract the driver's intention which leads to aggressive driving behavior; attention-based LSTM networks are applied in the multivariate-temporal aggressive driving behavior prediction. The method input uses panel data which contains observations about different cross-sections across time. In the case study, the model was trained based on the Shanghai Naturalistic Driving Study data. After comparing with other deep learning methods and normal LSTM, results show the proposed method provides good performance for aggressive driving behavior prediction (Mean of Accuracy = 80%), especially with the 2-sec time interval applied (Training Accuracy = 82% and Validation Accuracy = 84%). Also, the result shows that the attention mechanism can improve the result's interpretability, and using the driver's intentions as input can enhance the model accuracy. This method for predicting aggressive driving behavior that combines driver's intention, variable contribution sorting, and time-series processing. This method can be used in real-world applications for improving driving safety with the applications in the Advanced Driver Assistance Systems.

Solar-Powered Active Road Studs and Highway Infrastructure: Effect on Vehicle Speeds

Vehicle speeds have a direct relationship with the severity of road crashes and may influence their probability of occurrence. Solar-powered active road studs have been shown to have a positive effect on driver confidence, but their impact on vehicle speed in conjunction with other road features is little understood. This study aims to address this gap in knowledge through a case study of a 20 km section of a strategic major road featuring a variety of highway infrastructure features. Before-and-after surveys were undertaken at 21 locations along the route using manual radar speed measurement. Analysis of nearly 10,000 speed measurements showed no statistically significant change in mean speeds following the implementation of the road studs. Linear regression models are proposed for two different posted speed limits, associating road features with expected vehicle speed. The models suggest that vehicle speeds are chiefly influenced by merges, curves, gradients, and ambient light conditions. The findings of this study should provide confidence that active road studs may be implemented without a negative impact on speed-related safety. The work also provides further expansion of the evidence base describing the effect of highway infrastructure features on vehicle speeds.

Correlated mixed logit modeling with heterogeneity in means for crash severity and surrogate measure with temporal instability

This study employs the correlated mixed logit models with heterogeneity in means by accounting for temporal instability to estimate both injury severity and vehicle damage. Two years of intersection crash data from Connecticut were analyzed based on driver characteristics, highway and traffic attributes, environmental variables, vehicle and crash types. These elements were used as independent variables to explore the contributing factors to crash outcome. The likelihood ratio test highlights that the temporal instability exists in both injury severity and vehicle damage models. The model estimation results illustrate that the means of some random parameters are different among crashes. The correlation coefficients of random parameters verify that these random parameters are not always independent, and their correlations should be considered and accounted for in crash severity estimation models. The investigation and comparison between injury severity models and vehicle damage models verify that the injury severity and vehicle damage are highly correlated, and the effects of contributing factors on vehicle damage are consistent with the results of injury severity models. This finding demonstrates that vehicle damage can be used as a potential surrogate measure to injury severity when suffering from a low sample of severe injury crashes in crash severity prediction models. It is anticipated that this study can shed light on selecting appropriate statistical models in crash severity estimation, identifying intersection crash contributing factors, and help develop effective countermeasures to improve intersection safety.

Built environment, driving errors and violations, and crashes in naturalistic driving environment

Driving errors and violations are highly relevant to the safe systems approach as human errors tend to be a predominant cause of crash occurrence. In this study, we harness highly detailed pre-crash Naturalistic Driving Study (NDS) data 1) to understand errors and violations in crash, near-crash, and baseline (no event) driving situations, and 2) to explore pathways that lead to crashes in diverse built environments by applying rigorous modeling techniques. The "locality" factor in the NDS data provides information on various types of roadway and environmental surroundings that could influence traffic flow when a precipitating event is observed. Coded by the data reductionists, this variable is used to quantify the associations of diverse environments with crash outcomes both directly and indirectly through mediating driving errors and violations. While the most prevalent errors in crashes were recognition errors such as failing to recognize a situation (39 %) and decision errors such as not braking to avoid a hazard (34 %), performance errors such as poor lateral or longitudinal control or weak judgement (8 %) were most strongly correlated with crash occurrence. Path analysis uncovered direct and indirect relationships between key built-environment factors, errors and violations, and crash propensity. Possibly due to their complexity for drivers, urban environments are associated with higher chances of crashes (by 6.44 %). They can also induce more recognition errors which correlate with an even higher chances of crashes (by 2.16 % with the "total effect" amounting to 8.60 %). Similar statistically significant mediating contributions of recognition errors and decision errors near school zones, business or industrial areas, and moderate residential areas were also observed. From practical applications standpoint, multiple vehicle technologies (e.g., collision warning systems, cruise control, and lane tracking system) and built-environment (roadway) changes have the potential to reduce driving errors and violations which are discussed in the paper.

Operational factor analysis of the aggressive taxi speeders using random parameters Bayesian LASSO modeling approach

Partial taxi speeders are observed with both high speeding frequency and severity (range). They thereby can be viewed as aggressive speeders whose behaviors may result in more hazards than others. Among the factors contributing to taxi speeding, the operational factors are proven to be deterministic. However, previous studies mainly investigate the operational factors of taxi speeding frequency, which fail to comprehensively unveil the impact of factors on speeders, especially for aggressive speeders. This study intends to disclose the operational factors affecting the aggressive taxi speeders with the random parameters Bayesian least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) modeling approach. Taxi speeding behaviors and several operational factors are extracted from taxi GPS trajectory data in Chengdu, China. Based on the hourly speeding frequency and average speeding severity of each speeder, the fuzzy C-means clustering algorithm is employed to categorize taxi speeders into three cohorts: restrained speeder (RS), moderate speeder (MS), and belligerent speeder (BS). Compared to RS, MS and BS are treated as the aggressive taxi speeders. Several binary logistic models are developed with RS as the reference category. The random parameters Bayesian binary logistic LASSO model that captures the unobserved heterogeneity and tackles the multicollinearity is found to be the best fit model to identify the significant operational factors. The results indicate that aggressive taxi speeders are linked to longer daily driving distance and cruise distance, shorter delivery time, higher hourly income, driving at night, and driving on low-speed limit roads. However, intensive lane-changes and sufficient daily naps do not contribute to aggressive taxi speeders. Moreover, BS is more sensitive to the operational factors than MS. This study stresses the necessity of implementing speeder classification in taxi driver management and conceiving countermeasures considering the operational factors which are significantly associated with the aggressive taxi speeders.

Analyzing driver behavior under naturalistic driving conditions: A review

For a decade, researchers working in the area of road safety have started exploring the use of driving behavior data for a better understanding of the causes related to road accidents. A review of the literature reveals the excellent potential of naturalistic driving studies carried out by collecting vehicle performance data and driver behavior data during normal, impaired, and safety-critical situations. An in-depth understanding of driver behavior helps analyze and implement pre-crash safety measures - the development of enforcement policies, infrastructure design, and intelligent vehicle safety systems. The present paper attempts to review the naturalistic driving studies that have been undertaken so far. The paper begins with an overview of different methods for collecting unobtrusive driver behavior data during their day to day trip, followed by a discussion of various factors affecting driving behavior and their influence on vehicle performance parameters. The paper also discusses the strategies mentioned in the literature for improving driving behavior using naturalistic driving studies to enhance road safety. Some of the major findings of this review suggest that i) driver behavior is a major cause in the majority of the road accidents ii) drivers generally reduce their speed and increases headway as a compensatory measure to reduce the workload imposed during distracting activity and adverse weather conditions iii) mobile phone has emerged as a potential device for collecting naturalistic driving data and, iv) improvement in driving behavior can be achieved by providing feedback to the drivers about their driving behavior. This can be done by implementing usage-based insurance schemes such as pay as you drive (PAYD), pay how you drive (PHYD), and manage how you drive (MHYD). While a considerable amount of research has been done to analyze driving behavior under naturalistic conditions, some areas which are yet to be explored are highlighted in the present paper.

Mid-term prediction of at-fault crash driver frequency using fusion deep learning with city-level traffic violation data

Traffic violations and improper driving are behaviors that primarily contribute to traffic crashes. This study aimed to develop effective approaches for predicting at-fault crash driver frequency using only city-level traffic enforcement predictors. A fusion deep learning approach combining a convolution neural network (CNN) and gated recurrent units (GRU) was developed to compare predictive performance with one econometric approach, two machine learning approaches, and another deep learning approach. The performance comparison was conducted for (1) at-fault crash driver frequency prediction tasks and (2) city-level crash risk prediction tasks. The proposed CNN-GRU achieved remarkable prediction accuracy and outperformed other approaches, while the other approaches also exhibited excellent performances. The results suggest that effective prediction approaches and appropriate traffic safety measures can be developed by considering both crash frequency and crash risk prediction tasks. In addition, the accumulated local effects (ALE) plot was utilized to investigate the contribution of each traffic enforcement activity on traffic safety in a scenario of multicollinearity among predictors. The ALE plot illustrated a complex nonlinear relationship between traffic enforcement predictors and the response variable. These findings can facilitate the development of traffic safety measures and serve as a good foundation for further investigations and utilization of traffic violation data.