Mortality prediction model for patients with bladder urothelial tumor after radical cystectomy

Development of a Pocket Nomogram to Predict Cancer and Disease Specific Survival After Radical Cystectomy For Bladder Cancer: The CRAB Nomogram

OBJECTIVES

To develop an easy tool to predict cancer specific (CSS) and disease-free survival (DFS) in patients with bladder cancer treated with radical cystectomy.

METHODS

Data from a consecutive series of 2395 patients with primitive or progression to muscle invasive bladder cancer (MIBC) undergone to radical cystectomy and lymph nodes dissection in 5 centers were evaluated. Using Cox proportional hazards analyses, the Cancer of the bladder risk assessment (CRAB) nomogram was generated. Accuracy of the nomogram was evaluated by Harrell's C test. Internal validation of the model was performed using 200 bootstraps.

RESULTS

Median age was 66 (IQR 58/73) years; 612/2395 (26%) patients presented an advanced pathological stage (≥pT3a); 478/2395 (20%) presented positive lymph nodes. Overall, 729/2395 (30%) presented local or distant recurrence with a median DFS of 42 (IQR 14/89) months. Overall, 642/2395 (27%) died of bladder cancer with a median follow up of 48 (IQR 22/92) months. On univariate Cox proportional hazards analyses, age, stage, and lymph nodes density were a significant predictor of 3 and5 years CSS and DFS. Accuracy of the CRAB nomogram was 0.73 and 0.71 respectively.

CONCLUSION

CRAB nomogram can be a practical and easily applicable tool that may help urologists to classify the long-term CSS and DFS of patients treated with radical cystectomy and to predict the oncological outcome.

Mortality Trends Related to Bladder Cancer in Spain, 1999-2018

Bladder cancer (BC) is an important cause of premature mortality (PM, <75 years). Spain has one of the highest BC mortality rates in Europe. The objective of this study was to analyse BC mortality trends between 1999 and 2018 in Spain. The study was based on data from the National Institute of Statistics (Instituto Nacional de Estadística-INE). Age-adjusted mortality rates (AAMRs) were calculated by sex and age group. A trend analysis was performed using Joinpoint regression models and years of potential life lost (YPLL). Mortality in men resulting from BC decreased in all age groups studied. This was not observed in women, for whom mortality only decreased in the ≥75 age group. Deaths due to BC occurred prematurely in 38.6% of men and in 23.8% of women, which indicated a greater impact on YPLL in men compared to women. Over the last 20 years, there has been a significant decrease in BC mortality rate, except in women under 75 years of age. Despite this temporal trend of decreasing mortality, BC continues to have a significant impact on YPLL, mainly in men. Given this context, it is important to direct more resources towards prevention and early diagnosis strategies to correct this situation.