House-edge information and a volatility warning lead to reduced gambling expenditure: Potential improvements to return-to-player percentages

Never tell me the odds: Typical return-to-player information increases gamblers' perceived chances of winning

Previous research has shown that gamblers consistently misunderstand return-to-player (RTP) information, and participants shown an RTP of 93% reported that they were more likely to win than those who were shown no information. However, this effect might have been inflated by a higher-than-average RTP percentage. We experimentally test the impact of showing an industry-average RTP message of 90% on gamblers' perceived chances of winning, in two studies across two countries (UK and US). Slot players from Prolific (N = 6062) were shown either an RTP message ("This game has an average percentage payout of 90%"), two different House Edge (HE) messages ("This game keeps 10% of all money bet" or "This game is programmed to cost you 10% of your stake on each bet") or No-Information, and asked to rate their perceived chances of winning at a new slot machine. Across both studies and countries, participants rated their perceived chances of winning as significantly higher with a typical 90% RTP message than with No Information, with large effect sizes (ORs > 5). Both HE messages significantly outperformed RTP, but were no better than No-Information. These effects were moderated by PGSI in the No-Information condition, with participants with higher PGSI responding with higher chances of winning, but not in the other conditions. These results show an undesired side-effect of the consistently ineffective RTP information and confirm the superiority of HE over RTP, although none of the messages were superior to No-Information. Gamblers deserve to be better informed.

Skill-Based Electronic Gaming Machines: Features that Mimic Video Gaming, Features that could Contribute to Harm, and Their Potential Attraction to Different Groups

New gambling products have been developed over time as technology permits. For example, early mechanical slot machines were later replaced by electronic gaming machines (EGMs), which enabled a faster speed of play and more immersive experience. EGMs have in the decades since their invention become one of the main drivers of gambling expenditure worldwide and are one of the gambling products most strongly associated with harm. This literature review considers research relevant to a new subcategory of EGM, 'skill-based' EGMs, termed 'SGMs' here. SGMs can be highly varied in content, with some representing a minimal departure from EGMs, where the typical bonus round is replaced by some skill-based activity, such as a simple video game, which could increase the machine's appeal. Other SGMs feature more radical departures from conventional EGMs, such as multiplayer games using intellectual property from popular TV shows or video games. These skill-based elements could tap into common gambling fallacies such as the illusion of control, and therefore facilitate harmful engagement. SGMs could also be less harmful than current EGMs, if skill-based elements break the dissociative states associated with EGM gambling. The intellectual property used in SGMs may increase their appeal among people who generally do not gamble, and the skill-based elements could increase their interest among gamblers who predominately prefer skill-based gambling formats such as sports betting. The novelty and varied content of SGMs present many open questions, which research should aim to address in future.

"Losses disguised as wins" in electronic gambling machines contribute to win overestimation in a large online sample

Introduction

Losses disguised as wins (LDWs) are a salient type of losing outcome common to electronic gambling machines (EGMs). These events occur when a gambling payout is less than the amount wagered (i.e., a net loss) but is nonetheless accompanied by the sounds and animations that accompany genuine wins. Previous lab-based studies have reported that participants tend to overestimate genuine wins when LDWs are present. This study reports an independent replication of these findings in a large online sample that included a substantial number of individuals reporting high-risk gambling and frequent EGM users.

Methods

This online study recruited a sample of 940 participants who were randomly assigned to view one of two brief videos. Each video displayed a short period of simulated online slot machine gambling and included 2 genuine wins and either 3 or 0 LDWs. Participants were asked to estimate the number of times a win occurred that was more than the amount bet. Participants also completed the Problem Gambling Severity Index.

Results

The mean estimated number of genuine wins was significantly larger for the condition displaying LDWs, 3.02 [95% CI = 2.82, 3.21] than the control condition, 2.14 [1.98, 2.30], t(887.66) = 6.78, d = 0.44, p <.001.

Conclusions

We replicated the LDW-triggered win overestimation effect previously reported in lab-based experiments that have recruited smaller samples. This effect was robust in both low-risk and high-risk groups, indicating that even experienced gamblers remain susceptible. Exploratory modelling suggested only a minority of individuals were uninfluenced by LDWs.