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Muhrbeck M, Osman Z, von Schreeb J, Wladis A, Andersson P. Predicting surgical resource consumption and in-hospital mortality in resource-scarce conflict settings: a retrospective study. BMC Emerg Med 2021; 21:94. [PMID: 34380419 PMCID: PMC8359038 DOI: 10.1186/s12873-021-00488-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/13/2020] [Accepted: 07/30/2021] [Indexed: 11/14/2022] Open
Abstract
Background In armed conflicts, civilian health care struggles to cope. Being able to predict what resources are needed is therefore vital. The International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) implemented in the 1990s the Red Cross Wound Score (RCWS) for assessment of penetrating injuries. It is unknown to what extent RCWS or the established trauma scores Kampala trauma Score (KTS) and revised trauma score (RTS) can be used to predict surgical resource consumption and in-hospital mortality in resource-scarce conflict settings. Methods A retrospective study of routinely collected data on weapon-injured adults admitted to ICRC’s hospitals in Peshawar, 2009–2012 and Goma, 2012–2014. High resource consumption was defined as ≥3 surgical procedures or ≥ 3 blood-transfusions or amputation. The relationship between RCWS, KTS, RTS and resource consumption, in-hospital mortality was evaluated with logistic regression and adjusted area under receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC). The impact of missing data was assessed with imputation. Model fit was compared with Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). Results A total of 1564 patients were included, of these 834 patients had complete data. For high surgical resource consumption AUC was significantly higher for RCWS (0.76, 95% CI 0.74–0.78) than for KTS (0.53, 95% CI 0.50–0.56) and RTS (0.51, 95% CI 0.48–0.54) for all patients. Additionally, RCWS had lower AIC, indicating a better model fit. For in-hospital mortality AUC was significantly higher for RCWS (0.83, 95% CI 0.79–0.88) than for KTS (0.71, 95% CI 0.65–0.76) and RTS (0.70, 95% CI 0.63–0.76) for all patients, but not for patients with complete data. Conclusion RCWS appears to predict surgical resource consumption better than KTS and RTS. RCWS may be a promising tool for planning and monitoring surgical care in resource-scarce conflict settings. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12873-021-00488-2.
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Affiliation(s)
- Måns Muhrbeck
- Department of Surgery in Norrköping, and Department of Biomedical and Clinical Sciences, Linköping University, Linköping, Sweden. .,Center for Disaster Medicine and Traumatology, University Hospital, Linköping, Sweden.
| | - Zaher Osman
- International Committee of the Red Cross, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Johan von Schreeb
- Department of Global Public Health, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Andreas Wladis
- Department of Surgery in Norrköping, and Department of Biomedical and Clinical Sciences, Linköping University, Linköping, Sweden.,Center for Disaster Medicine and Traumatology, University Hospital, Linköping, Sweden
| | - Peter Andersson
- Department of Surgery in Norrköping, and Department of Biomedical and Clinical Sciences, Linköping University, Linköping, Sweden.,International Medical Programme, Center for Disaster Medicine and Traumatology, University Hospital, Linköping, Sweden
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Early detection of intensive care needs and mortality risk by use of five early warning scores in patients with traumatic injuries: An observational study. Intensive Crit Care Nurs 2021; 67:103095. [PMID: 34244029 DOI: 10.1016/j.iccn.2021.103095] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/12/2021] [Revised: 05/17/2021] [Accepted: 05/18/2021] [Indexed: 02/06/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE The purpose of this research was to evaluate the predictive capacity of five Early Warning Scores in relation to the clinical evolution of adult patients with different types of trauma. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY We conducted a longitudinal, prospective, observational study, calculating the Early Warning Scores [Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS), National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS-2), VitalPAC Early Warning Score (ViEWS), Modified Rapid Emergency Medicine Score (MREMS), and Rapid Acute Physiology Score (RAPS)] upon arrival of patients to the emergency department. SETTING In total, 445 cases of traumatic injuries were included in the study. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES The predictive capacity was verified with the data on admission to intensive care units (ICU) and mortality at two, seven and 30 days. RESULTS 201 patients were hospitalized and 244 were discharged after being attended in the emergency department. 91 cases (20.4%) required ICU care and 4.7% of patients died (21 patients) within two days, 6.5% (29 patients) within seven days and 9.7% (43 patients) within 30 days. The highest area under the curve for predicting the need for ICU care was obtained by the National Early Warning Score 2 and the VitalPAC Early Warning Score. For predicting mortality, the Modified Rapid Emergency Medicine Score obtained the best scores for two-day mortality, seven-day mortality and 30-day mortality. CONCLUSIONS Every Early Warning Score analyzed in this study obtained good results in predicting adverse effects in adult patients with traumatic injuries, creating an opportunity for new clinical applications in the emergency department.
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Tang OY, Marqués CG, Ndebwanimana V, Uwamahoro C, Uwamahoro D, Lipsman ZW, Naganathan S, Karim N, Nkeshimana M, Levine AC, Stephen A, Aluisio AR. Performance of Prognostication Scores for Mortality in Injured Patients in Rwanda. West J Emerg Med 2021; 22:435-444. [PMID: 33856336 PMCID: PMC7972380 DOI: 10.5811/westjem.2020.10.48434] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/02/2020] [Accepted: 10/12/2020] [Indexed: 11/11/2022] Open
Abstract
INTRODUCTION While trauma prognostication and triage scores have been designed for use in lower-resourced healthcare settings specifically, the comparative clinical performance between trauma-specific and general triage scores for risk-stratifying injured patients in such settings is not well understood. This study evaluated the Kampala Trauma Score (KTS), Revised Trauma Score (RTS), and Triage Early Warning Score (TEWS) for accuracy in predicting mortality among injured patients seeking emergency department (ED) care at the Centre Hospitalier Universitaire de Kigali (CHUK) in Rwanda. METHODS A retrospective, randomly sampled cohort of ED patients presenting with injury was accrued from August 2015-July 2016. Primary outcome was 14-day mortality and secondary outcome was overall facility-based mortality. We evaluated summary statistics of the cohort. Bootstrap regression models were used to compare areas under receiver operating curves (AUC) with associated 95% confidence intervals (CI). RESULTS Among 617 cases, the median age was 32 years and 73.5% were male. The most frequent mechanism of injury was road traffic incident (56.2%). Predominant anatomical regions of injury were craniofacial (39.3%) and lower extremities (38.7%), and the most common injury types were fracture (46.0%) and contusion (12.0%). Fourteen-day mortality was 2.6% and overall facility-based mortality was 3.4%. For 14-day mortality, TEWS had the highest accuracy (AUC = 0.88, 95% CI, 0.76-1.00), followed by RTS (AUC = 0.73, 95% CI, 0.55-0.92), and then KTS (AUC = 0.65, 95% CI, 0.47-0.84). Similarly, for facility-based mortality, TEWS (AUC = 0.89, 95% CI, 0.79-0.98) had greater accuracy than RTS (AUC = 0.76, 95% CI, 0.61-0.91) and KTS (AUC = 0.68, 95% CI, 0.53-0.83). On pairwise comparisons, RTS had greater prognostic accuracy than KTS for 14-day mortality (P = 0.011) and TEWS had greater accuracy than KTS for overall (P = 0.007) mortality. However, TEWS and RTS accuracy were not significantly different for 14-day mortality (P = 0.864) or facility-based mortality (P = 0.101). CONCLUSION In this cohort of emergently injured patients in Rwanda, the TEWS demonstrated the greatest accuracy for predicting mortality outcomes, with no significant discriminatory benefit found in the use of the trauma-specific RTS or KTS instruments, suggesting that the TEWS is the most clinically useful approach in the setting studied and likely in other similar ED environments.
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Affiliation(s)
- Oliver Y Tang
- Brown University Warren Alpert Medical School, Department, Providence, Rhode Island
| | - Catalina González Marqués
- Brown University Warren Alpert Medical School, Department of Emergency Medicine, Providence, Rhode Island
| | - Vincent Ndebwanimana
- University of Rwanda, Department of Anesthesia, Emergency Medicine, and Critical Care, Kigali, Rwanda.,Centre Hospitalier Universitaire de Kigali, Department of Accident & Emergency, Kigali, Rwanda
| | - Chantal Uwamahoro
- University of Rwanda, Department of Anesthesia, Emergency Medicine, and Critical Care, Kigali, Rwanda.,Centre Hospitalier Universitaire de Kigali, Department of Accident & Emergency, Kigali, Rwanda
| | - Doris Uwamahoro
- University of Rwanda, Department of Anesthesia, Emergency Medicine, and Critical Care, Kigali, Rwanda.,Centre Hospitalier Universitaire de Kigali, Department of Accident & Emergency, Kigali, Rwanda
| | - Zachary W Lipsman
- Kaiser Permanente, GSAA, San Leandro & Fremont Medical Centers, San Leandro, California
| | - Sonya Naganathan
- Brown University Warren Alpert Medical School, Department of Emergency Medicine, Providence, Rhode Island
| | - Naz Karim
- Brown University Warren Alpert Medical School, Department of Emergency Medicine, Providence, Rhode Island
| | - Menelas Nkeshimana
- University of Rwanda, Department of Anesthesia, Emergency Medicine, and Critical Care, Kigali, Rwanda.,Centre Hospitalier Universitaire de Kigali, Department of Accident & Emergency, Kigali, Rwanda
| | - Adam C Levine
- Brown University Warren Alpert Medical School, Department of Emergency Medicine, Providence, Rhode Island
| | - Andrew Stephen
- Brown University Warren Alpert Medical School, Department of Surgery, Providence, Rhode Island
| | - Adam R Aluisio
- Brown University Warren Alpert Medical School, Department of Emergency Medicine, Providence, Rhode Island
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