The 4-hour target in the emergency department, in-hospital mortality, and length of hospitalization: A single center-retrospective study

What is the optimal outcome for evaluating the triage Systems? Insights from a prospective observational study

BACKGROUND

Currently, there is no universally accepted gold standard outcome for assessing the effectiveness of the Triage Systems. This study aimed to comprehensively evaluate and compare various outcomes utilized in triage studies.

METHODS

A prospective observational study was conducted at the Emergency Department (ED) of Merano Hospital from June 1 to December 31, 2023. We assessed the predictive capability of the Manchester Triage System (MTS) across multiple outcomes using areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), along with their corresponding 95% confidence intervals (95% CI), and frequency distributions.

RESULTS

The MTS demonstrated strong performance concerning the most objective outcomes, such as mortality (at 72 h: AUROC 0.914; 95 %CI: 0.815-1; at 7 days: 0.845; 95 %CI: 0.729-0.965; at 30 days: 0.794; 95 %CI: 0.706-0.881), admission to the intensive care unit (0.831; 95 %CI: 0.763-0.899), and need for life-saving interventions (0.870; 95 %CI: 0.806-0.934). Additionally, outcomes such as urgency status and clinical priority, as judged by physicians, exhibited excellent performance and optimal frequency distribution.

CONCLUSIONS

The performance of the MTS varied significantly depending on the specific outcome under evaluation. Currently, no single outcome appears superior to others, nor does any seem poised to serve as a potential gold standard for the assessment of triage systems. It is advisable for dedicated working groups to convene and reach a consensus on the most effective outcomes for evaluating the performance of MTS and other triage systems. This should be accomplished through a systematic, standardized, and transparent approach, grounded in the best available evidence.

The Association between Emergency Department Length of Stay and In-Hospital Mortality in Older Patients Using Machine Learning: An Observational Cohort Study

The association between emergency department (ED) length of stay (EDLOS) with in-hospital mortality (IHM) in older patients remains unclear. This retrospective study aims to delineate the relationship between EDLOS and IHM in elderly patients. From the ED patients (n = 383,586) who visited an urban academic tertiary care medical center from January 2010 to December 2016, 78,478 older patients (age ≥60 years) were identified and stratified into three age subgroups: 60-74 (early elderly), 75-89 (late elderly), and ≥90 years (longevous elderly). We applied multiple machine learning approaches to identify the risk correlation trends between EDLOS and IHM, as well as boarding time (BT) and IHM. The incidence of IHM increased with age: 60-74 (2.7%), 75-89 (4.5%), and ≥90 years (6.3%). The best area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was obtained by Light Gradient Boosting Machine model for age groups 60-74, 75-89, and ≥90 years, which were 0.892 (95% CI, 0.870-0.916), 0.886 (95% CI, 0.861-0.911), and 0.838 (95% CI, 0.782-0.887), respectively. Our study showed that EDLOS and BT were statistically correlated with IHM (p < 0.001), and a significantly higher risk of IHM was found in low EDLOS and high BT. The flagged rate of quality assurance issues was higher in lower EDLOS ≤1 h (9.96%) vs. higher EDLOS 7 h <t≤ 8 h (1.84%). Special attention should be given to patients admitted after a short stay in the ED and a long BT, and new concepts of ED care processes including specific areas and teams dedicated to older patients care could be proposed to policymakers.

Length-of-Stay in the Emergency Department and In-Hospital Mortality: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

The effect of emergency department (ED) length of stay (EDLOS) on in-hospital mortality (IHM) remains unclear. The aim of this systematic review and meta-analysis was to determine the association between EDLOS and IHM. We searched the PubMed, Medline, Embase, Web of Science, Cochrane Controlled Register of Trials, CINAHL, PsycInfo, and Scopus databases from their inception until 14−15 January 2022. We included studies reporting the association between EDLOS and IHM. A total of 11,337 references were identified, and 52 studies (total of 1,718,518 ED patients) were included in the systematic review and 33 in the meta-analysis. A statistically significant association between EDLOS and IHM was observed for EDLOS over 24 h in patients admitted to an intensive care unit (ICU) (OR = 1.396, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.147 to 1.701; p < 0.001, I2 = 0%) and for low EDLOS in non-ICU-admitted patients (OR = 0.583, 95% CI: 0.453 to 0.745; p < 0.001, I2 = 0%). No associations were detected for the other cut-offs. Our findings suggest that there is an association between IHM low EDLOS and EDLOS exceeding 24 h and IHM. Long stays in the ED should not be allowed and special attention should be given to patients admitted after a short stay in the ED.