1
|
Soda KJ, Chen X, Feinn R, Hill DR. Monitoring and responding to emerging infectious diseases in a university setting: A case study using COVID-19. PLoS One 2023; 18:e0280979. [PMID: 37196023 PMCID: PMC10191342 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0280979] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/19/2023] [Accepted: 04/28/2023] [Indexed: 05/19/2023] Open
Abstract
Emerging infection diseases (EIDs) are an increasing threat to global public health, especially when the disease is newly emerging. Institutions of higher education (IHEs) are particularly vulnerable to EIDs because student populations frequently share high-density residences and strongly mix with local and distant populations. In fall 2020, IHEs responded to a novel EID, COVID-19. Here, we describe Quinnipiac University's response to SARS-CoV-2 and evaluate its effectiveness through empirical data and model results. Using an agent-based model to approximate disease dynamics in the student body, the University established a policy of dedensification, universal masking, surveillance testing via a targeted sampling design, and app-based symptom monitoring. After an extended period of low incidence, the infection rate grew through October, likely due to growing incidence rates in the surrounding community. A super-spreader event at the end of October caused a spike in cases in November. Student violations of the University's policies contributed to this event, but lax adherence to state health laws in the community may have also contributed. The model results further suggest that the infection rate was sensitive to the rate of imported infections and was disproportionately impacted by non-residential students, a result supported by the observed data. Collectively, this suggests that campus-community interactions play a major role in campus disease dynamics. Further model results suggest that app-based symptom monitoring may have been an important regulator of the University's incidence, likely because it quarantined infectious students without necessitating test results. Targeted sampling had no substantial advantages over simple random sampling when the model incorporated contact tracing and app-based symptom monitoring but reduced the upper boundary on 90% prediction intervals for cumulative infections when either was removed. Thus, targeted sampling designs for surveillance testing may mitigate worst-case outcomes when other interventions are less effective. The results' implications for future EIDs are discussed.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- K. James Soda
- Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Quinnipiac University, Hamden, Connecticut, United States of America
| | - Xi Chen
- Department of Sociology and Anthropology, Quinnipiac University, Hamden, Connecticut, United States of America
| | - Richard Feinn
- Department of Medical Sciences, Frank H. Netter MD School of Medicine, Quinnipiac University, Hamden, Connecticut, United States of America
| | - David R. Hill
- Department of Medical Sciences, Frank H. Netter MD School of Medicine, Quinnipiac University, Hamden, Connecticut, United States of America
| |
Collapse
|
2
|
Yang T, Wang Y, Zhao Q, Guo X, Yu S, Zhao Z, Deng B, Huang J, Liu W, Su Y, Chen T. Age-specific transmission dynamic of mumps: A long-term large-scale modeling study in Jilin Province, China. Front Public Health 2022; 10:968702. [PMID: 36420012 PMCID: PMC9678053 DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2022.968702] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/14/2022] [Accepted: 10/13/2022] [Indexed: 11/09/2022] Open
Abstract
Objectives Despite the adoption of a new childhood immunization program in China, the incidence of mumps remains high. This study aimed to describe the epidemiological characteristics of mumps in Jilin Province from 2005 to 2019 and to assess the transmissibility of mumps virus among the whole population and different subgroups by regions and age groups. Methods The Non-age-specific and age-specific Susceptible-Exposed-Pre-symptomatic-Infectious-Asymptomatic-Recovered (SEPIAR) models were fitted to actual mumps incidence data. The time-varying reproduction number (R t ) was used to evaluate and compare the transmissibility. Results From 2005 to 2019, a total of 57,424 cases of mumps were reported in Jilin Province. The incidence of mumps was the highest in people aged 5 to 9 years (77.37 per 100,000). The two SEPIAR models fitted the reported data well (P < 0.01). The median transmissibility (R t ) calculated by the two SEPIAR models were 1.096 (range: 1.911 × 10-5-2.192) and 1.074 (range: 0.033-2.114) respectively. The age-specific SEPIAR model was more representative of the actual epidemic of mumps in Jilin Province from 2005-2019. Conclusions For mumps control, it is recommended that mumps-containing vaccines (MuCV) coverage be increased nationwide in the 5-9 years age group, either by a mumps vaccine alone or by a combination of vaccines such as measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) vaccine. The coverage of vaccines in Jilin Province should be continuously expanded to establish solid immunity in the population. China needs to redefine the optimal time interval for MuCV immunization.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Tianlong Yang
- State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen, China
| | - Yao Wang
- State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen, China
| | - Qinglong Zhao
- Jilin Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Changchun, China
| | - Xiaohao Guo
- State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen, China
| | - Shanshan Yu
- State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen, China
| | - Zeyu Zhao
- State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen, China
| | - Bin Deng
- State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen, China
| | - Jiefeng Huang
- State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen, China
| | - Weikang Liu
- State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen, China
| | - Yanhua Su
- State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen, China,*Correspondence: Tianmu Chen
| | - Tianmu Chen
- State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen, China,Yanhua Su
| |
Collapse
|
6
|
Chang T, Draper JM, Van den Bout A, Kephart E, Maul-Newby H, Vasquez Y, Woodbury J, Randi S, Pedersen M, Nave M, La S, Gallagher N, McCabe MM, Dhillon N, Bjork I, Luttrell M, Dang F, MacMillan JB, Green R, Miller E, Kilpatrick AM, Vaske O, Stone MD, Sanford JR. A method for campus-wide SARS-CoV-2 surveillance at a large public university. PLoS One 2021; 16:e0261230. [PMID: 34919584 PMCID: PMC8682906 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0261230] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/19/2021] [Accepted: 11/24/2021] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
The systematic screening of asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic individuals is a powerful tool for controlling community transmission of infectious disease on college campuses. Faced with a paucity of testing in the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, many universities developed molecular diagnostic laboratories focused on SARS-CoV-2 diagnostic testing on campus and in their broader communities. We established the UC Santa Cruz Molecular Diagnostic Lab in early April 2020 and began testing clinical samples just five weeks later. Using a clinically-validated laboratory developed test (LDT) that avoided supply chain constraints, an automated sample pooling and processing workflow, and a custom laboratory information management system (LIMS), we expanded testing from a handful of clinical samples per day to thousands per day with the testing capacity to screen our entire campus population twice per week. In this report we describe the technical, logistical, and regulatory processes that enabled our pop-up lab to scale testing and reporting capacity to thousands of tests per day.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Terren Chang
- Colligan Clinical Diagnostic Laboratory, University of California Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, California, United States of America
- Department of Chemistry and Biochemistry, University of California Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, California, United States of America
- UC Santa Cruz Center for Molecular Biology of RNA, University of California Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, California, United States of America
| | - Jolene M. Draper
- Colligan Clinical Diagnostic Laboratory, University of California Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, California, United States of America
- UC Santa Cruz Center for Molecular Biology of RNA, University of California Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, California, United States of America
- Department of Molecular, Cellular and Developmental Biology, University of California Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, California, United States of America
- UC Santa Cruz Genomics Institute, University of California Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, California, United States of America
| | - Anouk Van den Bout
- Colligan Clinical Diagnostic Laboratory, University of California Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, California, United States of America
- UC Santa Cruz Center for Molecular Biology of RNA, University of California Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, California, United States of America
- Department of Molecular, Cellular and Developmental Biology, University of California Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, California, United States of America
- UC Santa Cruz Genomics Institute, University of California Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, California, United States of America
| | - Ellen Kephart
- Colligan Clinical Diagnostic Laboratory, University of California Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, California, United States of America
- UC Santa Cruz Center for Molecular Biology of RNA, University of California Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, California, United States of America
- Department of Molecular, Cellular and Developmental Biology, University of California Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, California, United States of America
- UC Santa Cruz Genomics Institute, University of California Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, California, United States of America
| | - Hannah Maul-Newby
- Colligan Clinical Diagnostic Laboratory, University of California Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, California, United States of America
- UC Santa Cruz Center for Molecular Biology of RNA, University of California Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, California, United States of America
- Department of Molecular, Cellular and Developmental Biology, University of California Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, California, United States of America
| | - Yvonne Vasquez
- Colligan Clinical Diagnostic Laboratory, University of California Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, California, United States of America
- UC Santa Cruz Center for Molecular Biology of RNA, University of California Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, California, United States of America
- Department of Molecular, Cellular and Developmental Biology, University of California Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, California, United States of America
- UC Santa Cruz Genomics Institute, University of California Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, California, United States of America
| | - Jason Woodbury
- Thirdwave Analytics, San Francisco, California, United States of America
| | - Savanna Randi
- Colligan Clinical Diagnostic Laboratory, University of California Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, California, United States of America
- UC Santa Cruz Genomics Institute, University of California Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, California, United States of America
| | - Martina Pedersen
- Colligan Clinical Diagnostic Laboratory, University of California Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, California, United States of America
- UC Santa Cruz Genomics Institute, University of California Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, California, United States of America
| | - Maeve Nave
- Colligan Clinical Diagnostic Laboratory, University of California Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, California, United States of America
- UC Santa Cruz Genomics Institute, University of California Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, California, United States of America
| | - Scott La
- Colligan Clinical Diagnostic Laboratory, University of California Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, California, United States of America
- UC Santa Cruz Genomics Institute, University of California Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, California, United States of America
| | - Natalie Gallagher
- Colligan Clinical Diagnostic Laboratory, University of California Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, California, United States of America
- UC Santa Cruz Genomics Institute, University of California Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, California, United States of America
| | - Molly M. McCabe
- Colligan Clinical Diagnostic Laboratory, University of California Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, California, United States of America
- Department of Molecular, Cellular and Developmental Biology, University of California Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, California, United States of America
- UC Santa Cruz Genomics Institute, University of California Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, California, United States of America
| | - Namrita Dhillon
- Colligan Clinical Diagnostic Laboratory, University of California Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, California, United States of America
- Department of Molecular, Cellular and Developmental Biology, University of California Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, California, United States of America
- UC Santa Cruz Genomics Institute, University of California Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, California, United States of America
| | - Isabel Bjork
- Colligan Clinical Diagnostic Laboratory, University of California Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, California, United States of America
- UC Santa Cruz Genomics Institute, University of California Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, California, United States of America
| | - Michael Luttrell
- Business and Accounting Services, University of California Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, California, United States of America
| | - Frank Dang
- University of California Davis, Davis, California, United States of America
| | - John B. MacMillan
- Colligan Clinical Diagnostic Laboratory, University of California Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, California, United States of America
- Department of Chemistry and Biochemistry, University of California Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, California, United States of America
| | - Ralph Green
- University of California Davis, Davis, California, United States of America
| | - Elizabeth Miller
- Student Health Services, University of California Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, California, United States of America
| | - Auston M. Kilpatrick
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, California, United States of America
| | - Olena Vaske
- Colligan Clinical Diagnostic Laboratory, University of California Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, California, United States of America
- Department of Chemistry and Biochemistry, University of California Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, California, United States of America
- UC Santa Cruz Center for Molecular Biology of RNA, University of California Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, California, United States of America
- Department of Molecular, Cellular and Developmental Biology, University of California Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, California, United States of America
- UC Santa Cruz Genomics Institute, University of California Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, California, United States of America
| | - Michael D. Stone
- Colligan Clinical Diagnostic Laboratory, University of California Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, California, United States of America
- Department of Chemistry and Biochemistry, University of California Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, California, United States of America
- UC Santa Cruz Center for Molecular Biology of RNA, University of California Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, California, United States of America
| | - Jeremy R. Sanford
- Colligan Clinical Diagnostic Laboratory, University of California Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, California, United States of America
- UC Santa Cruz Center for Molecular Biology of RNA, University of California Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, California, United States of America
- Department of Molecular, Cellular and Developmental Biology, University of California Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, California, United States of America
- UC Santa Cruz Genomics Institute, University of California Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, California, United States of America
| |
Collapse
|