The magnitude rather than the rate of decline in fetal growth is a stronger risk factor for perinatal mortality in term infants

Assessment of fetal growth trajectory identifies infants at high risk of perinatal mortality

OBJECTIVE

To analyze perinatal risks associated with three distinct scenarios of fetal growth trajectory in the latter half of pregnancy compared with a reference group.

METHODS

This cohort study included women with a singleton pregnancy that delivered between 32 + 0 and 41 + 6 weeks' gestation and had two or more ultrasound scans, at least 4 weeks apart, from 18 + 0 weeks. We evaluated three different scenarios of fetal growth against a reference group, which comprised appropriate-for-gestational-age fetuses with appropriate forward-growth trajectory. The comparator growth trajectories were categorized as: Group 1, small-for-gestational-age (SGA) fetuses (estimated fetal weight (EFW) or abdominal circumference (AC) persistently < 10th centile) with appropriate forward growth; Group 2, fetuses with decreased growth trajectory (decrease of ≥ 50 centiles) and EFW or AC ≥ 10th centile (i.e. non-SGA) at their final ultrasound scan; and Group 3, fetuses with decreased growth trajectory and EFW or AC < 10th centile (i.e. SGA) at their final scan. The primary outcome was overall perinatal mortality (stillbirth or neonatal death). Secondary outcomes included stillbirth, delivery of a SGA infant, preterm birth, emergency Cesarean section for non-reassuring fetal status and composite severe neonatal morbidity. Associations were analyzed using logistic regression.

RESULTS

The final study cohort comprised 5319 pregnancies. Compared to the reference group, the adjusted odds of perinatal mortality were increased significantly in Group 2 (adjusted odds ratio (aOR), 4.00 (95% CI, 1.36-11.22)) and Group 3 (aOR, 7.71 (95% CI, 2.39-24.91)). Only Group 3 had increased odds of stillbirth (aOR, 5.69 (95% CI, 1.55-20.93)). In contrast, infants in Group 1 did not have significantly increased odds of demise. The odds of a SGA infant at birth were increased in all three groups compared with the reference group, but was highest in Group 1 (aOR, 111.86 (95% CI, 62.58-199.95)) and Group 3 (aOR, 40.63 (95% CI, 29.01-56.92)). In both groups, more than 80% of infants were born SGA and nearly half had a birth weight < 3rd centile. Likewise, the odds of preterm birth were increased in all three groups compared with the reference group, being highest in Group 3, with an aOR of 4.27 (95% CI, 3.23-5.64). Lastly, the odds of composite severe neonatal morbidity were increased in Groups 1 and 3, whereas the odds of emergency Cesarean section for non-reassuring fetal status were increased only in Group 3.

CONCLUSION

Assessing the fetal growth trajectory in the latter half of pregnancy can help identify infants at increased risk of perinatal mortality and birth weight < 3rd centile for gestation. © 2024 International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Routine third-trimester ultrasound assessment for intrauterine growth restriction

Intrauterine growth restriction significantly impacts perinatal outcomes. Undetected IUGR escalates the risk of adverse outcomes. Serial symphysis-fundal height measurement, a recommended strategy, is insufficient in detecting abnormal fetal growth. Routine third-trimester ultrasounds significantly improve detection rates compared with this approach, but direct high-quality evidence supporting enhanced perinatal outcomes from routine scanning is lacking. In assessing fetal growth, abdominal circumference alone performs comparably to estimated fetal weight. Hadlock formulas demonstrate accurate fetal weight estimation across diverse gestational ages and settings. When choosing growth charts, prescriptive standards (encompassing healthy pregnancies) should be prioritized over descriptive ones. Customized fetal standards may enhance antenatal IUGR detection, but conclusive high-quality evidence is elusive. Emerging observational data suggest that longitudinal fetal growth assessment could predict adverse outcomes better. However, direct randomized trial evidence supporting this remains insufficient.

Prenatal prediction of adverse outcome using different charts and definitions of fetal growth restriction

OBJECTIVE

Antenatal growth assessment using ultrasound aims to identify small fetuses that are at higher risk of perinatal morbidity and mortality. This study explored whether the association between suboptimal fetal growth and adverse perinatal outcome varies with different definitions of fetal growth restriction (FGR) and different weight charts/standards.

METHODS

This was a retrospective cohort study of 17 261 singleton non-anomalous pregnancies at ≥ 24 + 0 weeks' gestation that underwent routine ultrasound at a tertiary referral hospital. Estimated fetal weight (EFW) and Doppler indices were converted into percentiles using a reference standard (INTERGROWTH-21st (IG-21)) and various reference charts (Hadlock, Fetal Medicine Foundation (FMF) and Swedish). Test characteristics were assessed using the consensus definition, Society for Maternal-Fetal Medicine (SMFM) definition and Swedish criteria for FGR. Adverse perinatal outcome was defined as perinatal death, admission to the neonatal intensive care unit at term, 5-min Apgar score < 7 and therapeutic cooling for neonatal encephalopathy. The association between FGR according to each definition and adverse perinatal outcome was compared. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to test the strength of association between ultrasound parameters and adverse perinatal outcome. Ultrasound parameters were also tested for correlation.

RESULTS

IG-21, Hadlock and FMF fetal size references classified as growth-restricted 1.5%, 3.6% and 4.6% of fetuses, respectively, using the consensus definition and 2.9%, 8.8% and 10.6% of fetuses, respectively, using the SMFM definition. The sensitivity of the definition/chart combinations for adverse perinatal outcome varied from 4.4% (consensus definition with IG-21 charts) to 13.2% (SMFM definition with FMF charts). Specificity varied from 89.4% (SMFM definition with FMF charts) to 98.6% (consensus definition with IG-21 charts). The consensus definition and Swedish criteria showed the highest specificity, positive predictive value and positive likelihood ratio in detecting adverse outcome, irrespective of the reference chart/standard used. Conversely, the SMFM definition had the highest sensitivity across all investigated growth charts. Low EFW, abnormal mean uterine artery pulsatility index (UtA-PI) and abnormal cerebroplacental ratio were significantly associated with adverse perinatal outcome and there was a positive correlation between the covariates. Multivariate logistic regression showed that UtA-PI > 95th percentile and EFW < 5th percentile were the only parameters consistently associated with adverse outcome, irrespective of the definitions or fetal growth chart/standard used.

CONCLUSIONS

The apparent prevalence of FGR varies according to the definition and fetal size reference chart/standard used. Irrespective of the method of classification, the sensitivity for the identification of adverse perinatal outcome remains low. EFW, UtA-PI and fetal Doppler parameters are significant predictors of adverse perinatal outcome. As these indices are correlated with one other, a prediction algorithm is advocated to overcome the limitations of using these parameters in isolation. © 2023 The Authors. Ultrasound in Obstetrics & Gynecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Fetal size vs growth: comparative analysis of 3 models of growth velocity based on third trimester estimated fetal weights for identifying stillbirth risk

BACKGROUND

Fetal growth velocity is being recognized as an important parameter by which to monitor fetal wellbeing, in addition to assessment of fetal size. However, there are different models and standards in use by which velocity is being assessed.

OBJECTIVE

We wanted to investigate 3 clinically applied methods of assessing growth velocity and their ability to identify stillbirth risk, in addition to that associated with small for gestational age.

STUDY DESIGN

Retrospective analysis of prospectively recorded routine-care data of pregnancies with 2 or more third trimester scans in New Zealand. Results of the last 2 scans were used for the analysis. The models investigated to define slow growth were (1) 50+ centile drop between measurements, (2) 30+ centile drop, and (3) estimated fetal weight below a projected optimal weight range, based on predefined, scan interval specific cut-offs to define normal growth. Each method's ability to identify stillbirth risk was assessed against that associated with small-for-gestational age at last scan.

RESULTS

The study cohort consisted of 71,576 pregnancies. The last 2 scans in each pregnancy were performed at an average of 32+1 and 35+6 weeks of gestation. The 3 models defined "slow growth" at the following differing rates: (1) 50-centile drop 0.9%, (2) 30-centile drop 5.1%, and (3) below projected optimal weight range 10.8%. Neither of the centile-based models identified at-risk cases that were not also small for gestational age at last scan. The projected weight range method identified an additional 79% of non-small-for-gestational-age cases as slow growth, and these were associated with a significantly increased stillbirth risk (relative risk, 2.0; 95% CI, 1.2-3.4).

CONCLUSION

Centile-based methods fail to reflect adequacy of fetal weight gain at the extremes of the distribution. Guidelines endorsing such models might hinder the potential benefits of antenatal assessment of fetal growth velocity. A new, measurement-interval-specific projection model of expected fetal weight gain can identify fetuses that are not small for gestational age, yet at risk of stillbirth because of slow growth. The velocity between scans can be calculated using a freely available growth rate calculator (www.perinatal.org.uk/growthrate).

Mediation analysis quantifying the magnitude of stillbirth risk attributable to small for gestational age infants

BACKGROUND

Many risk factors for stillbirth are linked to placental dysfunction, which leads to suboptimal intrauterine growth and small for gestational age infants. Such infants also have an increased risk for stillbirth.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to investigate the effect of known causal risk factors for stillbirth, and to identify those that have a large proportion of their risk mediated through small for gestational age birth.

STUDY DESIGN

This retrospective cohort study used data from all births in the state of Queensland, Australia between 2000 and 2018. The total effects of exposures on the odds of stillbirth were determined using multivariable, clustered logistic regression models. Mediation analysis was performed using a counterfactual approach to determine the indirect effect and percentage of effect mediated through small for gestational age. For risk factors significantly mediated through small for gestational age, the relative risks of stillbirth were compared between small for gestational age and appropriate for gestational age infants. We also investigated the proportion of risk mediated via small for gestational age for late stillbirths (≥28 weeks).

RESULTS

The initial data set consisted of 1,105,612 births. After exclusions, the final study cohort constituted 925,053 births. Small for gestational age births occurred in 9.9% (91,859/925,053) of the study cohort. Stillbirths occurred in 0.5% of all births (4234/925,053) and 1.5% of small for gestational age births (1414/91,859). Births at ≥28 weeks occurred in 99.4% (919,650/925,053) of the study cohort and in 98.9% (90,804/91,859) of all small for gestational age births. Of the ≥28-week births, stillbirths occurred in 0.2% (2156/919,650) of all births and 0.8% (677/90,804) of the small for gestational age births. Overall, increased odds of stillbirth were significantly mediated through small for gestational age for age <20 years, low socioeconomic status, Indigenous ethnicity, birth in sub-Saharan and North Africa or the Middle East, smoking, nulliparity, multiple pregnancy, assisted conception, previous stillbirth, preeclampsia, and renal disease. Preeclampsia had the largest proportion mediated through small for gestational age (66.7%), followed by nulliparity (61.6%), smoking (29.4%), North-African or Middle Eastern ethnicity (27.6%), multiple pregnancy (26.3%), low socioeconomic status (25.8%), and Indigenous status (18.7%). Sensitivity analysis showed that for late stillbirths, the portions mediated through small for gestational age remained very similar for many of the risk factors.

CONCLUSION

Although small for gestational age is an important mediator between many pregnancy risk factors and stillbirth, mitigating the risk of small for gestational age is likely to be of value only when it is a major contributor in the pathway to fetal demise.

Risks of stillbirth, neonatal mortality, and severe neonatal morbidity by birthweight centiles associated with expectant management at term

BACKGROUND

Determining the optimal time of birth at term is challenging given the ongoing risks of stillbirth with increasing gestation vs the risks of significant neonatal morbidity at early-term gestations. These risks are more pronounced in small infants.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to evaluate the risks of stillbirth, neonatal mortality, and severe neonatal morbidity by comparing expectant management with delivery from 37+0 weeks of gestation.

STUDY DESIGN

This was a retrospective cohort study evaluating women with singleton, nonanomalous pregnancies at 37+0 to 40+6 weeks' gestation in Queensland, Australia, delivered from 2000 to 2018. Rates of stillbirth, neonatal death, and severe neonatal morbidity were calculated for <3rd, 3rd to <10th, 10th to <25th, 25th to <90th, and ≥90th birthweight centiles. The composite risk of mortality with expectant management for an additional week in utero was compared with rates of neonatal mortality and severe neonatal morbidity.

RESULTS

Of 948,895 singleton, term nonanomalous births, 813,077 occurred at 37+0 to 40+6 weeks' gestation. Rates of stillbirth increased with gestational age, with the highest rate observed in infants with birthweight below the third centile: 10.0 per 10,000 (95% confidence interval, 6.2-15.3) at 37+0 to 37+6 weeks, rising to 106.4 per 10,000 (95% confidence interval, 74.6-146.9) at 40+0 to 40+6 weeks' gestation. The rate of neonatal mortality was highest at 37+0 to 37+6 weeks for all birthweight centiles. The composite risk of expectant management rose sharply after 39+0 to 39+6 weeks, and was highest in infants with birthweight below the third centile (125.2/10,000; 95% confidence interval, 118.4-132.3) at 40+0 to 40+6 weeks' gestation. Balancing the risk of expectant management and delivery (neonatal mortality), the optimal timing of delivery for each birthweight centile was evaluated on the basis of relative risk differences. The rate of severe neonatal morbidity sharply decreased in the period between 37+0 to 37+6 and 38+0 to 38+6 weeks, particularly for infants with birthweight below the third centile.

CONCLUSION

Our data suggest that the optimal time of birth is 37+0 to 37+6 weeks for infants with birthweight <3rd centile and 38+0 to 38+6 weeks' gestation for those with birthweight between the 3rd and 10th centile and >90th centile. For all other birthweight centiles, birth from 39+0 weeks is associated with the best outcomes. However, large numbers of planned births are required to prevent a single excess death. The healthcare costs and acceptability to women of potential universal policies of planned birth need to be carefully considered.