Rising incidence and changing demographics of suicide in India: Time to recalibrate prevention policies?

Temporal Fluctuations of Suicide Mortality in Japan from 2009 to 2023 Using Government Databases

In Japan, suicide mortalities consistently decreased before the COVID-19 pandemic (from 2009 to 2019) but, conversely, increased after the pandemic outbreak from 2020 to 2022. To provide up-to-date suicide statistics in Japan, this study determined the temporal fluctuations of standardized suicide mortalities (SMRs), disaggregated by sex and age, by joinpoint regression analysis using the government suicide database, named the "Basic Data on Suicide in Region". From January 2009 to December 2023, three temporal fluctuation patterns of SMRs pertaining to working age and older adults were detected, such as attenuations of decreasing trends before the COVID-19 pandemic (from around the mid-2010s), a sharply increasing trend that coincided with the pandemic outbreak, and gradually decreased during the pandemic, but no changes at the end of the COVID-19 pandemic. In particular, the SMRs of working-age females sharply increased concurrently with the pandemic outbreak, whereas those of males did not change. However, before the pandemic, decreasing trends of the SMRs of working-age males diminished in the mid-2010s, but those of females consistently decreased. The SMRs of working-age males indicated non-significant but sharply increasing trends in early 2022, a trend that was not observed for females. In contrast to working-age adults, the SMRs of adolescents already began to increase in the mid-2010s and also indicated consistently increasing trends between the periods during and after the pandemic. These results suggest, contrary to our expectations, that the impacts of both the outbreak and end of the COVID-19 pandemic were limited regarding the increase in SMRs from 2020. Therefore, when revising suicide prevention programs in the post-COVID-19 era, it should be noted that focusing on pandemic-associated factors alone is not sufficient.

Suicide risk in patients with a current depressive episode during the COVID-19 pandemic

Introduction

The prevalence of major depressive disorder (MDD) increased during the COVID-19 pandemic. Data on suicidality in these patients during the pandemic period remain scarce. The aim of the study was to determine the prevalence and variables associated with serious suicide risk in Russian inpatients with MDD during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Methods

A cross-sectional cohort study with consecutive sampling was conducted from January 1, 2021 to December 31, 2021. All patients completed the Mini International Neuropsychiatric Interview (M.I.N.I.) (including the suicidality module), the Beck Depression Inventory, and the State-Trait Anxiety Inventory, and underwent a semi-structured interview to collect relevant demographic and clinical data. Effect sizes for all independent variables and covariates were calculated using partial eta-squared (ηp2).

Results

Of the 6757 patients with non-psychotic mental disorders assessed, 1605 (23.7%) had MDD confirmed by the M.I.N.I., of whom 17.8% were at serious risk for suicide according to the M.I.N.I. suicidality module. Factors independently associated with serious suicide risk in Russian inpatients with MDD during the pandemic were younger age (ηp2 = 0.021), greater severity of depression (0.038), higher state anxiety (0.003), and nonsuicidal self-injury (NSSI) (0.066). The same variables, except for state anxiety, were independently associated with suicide risk in the subgroup of MDD patients previously infected with SARS-CoV2.

Conclusion

In the COVID-19 pandemic, the proportion of patients with MDD at serious risk of suicide was similar to pre-pandemic data. No associations were found between suicidality in patients with MDD and COVID-related factors. Younger age, greater severity of depression, and especially NSSI were the most significant risk factors for suicide in patients with MDD during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Impacts of Working Hours, Wages, and Regular Employment Opportunity on Suicide Mortalities of Employed and Unemployed Individuals before and during the COVID-19 Pandemic in Japan

Standardized suicide mortality rates per 100,000 population (SMRs) in Japan consistently decreased from 2009-2019, but these decreasing trends were reversed to increase in 2020. To clarify the mechanisms of recent increasing suicide in Japan, temporal fluctuations of SMRs disaggregated by sex and employment status (employed and unemployed individuals) and labor indices such as working hours, wages, and regular employment opportunity index (REO) from January 2012 to June 2023 were analyzed using interrupted time-series analysis. Additionally, temporal causalities from labor indices to SMRs were analyzed using vector autoregressive and non-linear auto-regressive distributed lag analyses. Decreasing trends among employed SMRs of both sexes were attenuated after the enactment of the "Work Style Reform Program" in 2018, but male SMRs were unaffected by the COVID-19 pandemic. However, female employed SMRs sharply increased, synchronized with the "Work Style Reform Act" and the COVID-19 pandemic outbreak (the COVID-19 impact was greater than the "Work Style Reform Act"). Additionally, unemployed SMRs of both sexes sharply increased with the revision and scale-down of countermeasures against economic deterioration caused by COVID-19 ("revision of economic supportive countermeasures against economic deterioration caused by COVID-19"). Unexpectedly, after enacting the "Work Style Reform Act", wages decreased due to possibly decreasing working hours. Increasing REO, which consistently increased, was a protective factor for male suicides, but unemployed SMRs were not affected by any labor indices. It has been established that controlling a heavy workload plays an important role in suppressing the deterioration of physical and mental conditions, including suicide; however, this study suggested that, at least within appropriate ranges of working hours, decreasing working hours due to excessive management probably contributes to increasing suicides of some vulnerable individuals via de-creasing their wages. Although governmental welfare and economic support measures had to be revised according to rapidly changing situations during the COVID-19 pandemic, this study also suggested that temporal gaps among a part of revisions of several welfare and economic support measures were unexpectedly involved in drastically/sharply increasing suicides of unemployed individuals in 2022.

Exploring cause-specific strategies for suicide prevention in India: A multivariate VARMA approach

Efficiently predicting suicide rates aids resource allocation and response preparedness. This study investigates time-series data with multiple variables to model and forecast suicide events in India. Utilizing official suicide statistics (2001-2021), results highlight the superiority of the multivariate VARMA model over VAR and univariate ARIMA models. This approach uncovers overlooked patterns and a concerning upward trend in future Indian suicide incidents. The research provides insights that aid public health professionals in targeting high-need areas and enhancing readiness and suggests cause-specific preventive strategies to counter this trend.

Little Strokes Fell Big Oaks: How Repeated Recommendations for Suicide Reporting Drive the Quality of Suicide News in South Korea

This study investigates how far repeated releases of recommendations for responsible reporting on suicide (RRS) are associated with changes in the quality of suicide reporting. A content analysis was conducted on suicide news articles (N = 606) by the Korean newspapers Hankyoreh Sinmun and Chosun Ilbo in four six-month periods from 2004 to 2019, which covered the periods before and after the releases of three versions of suicide reporting guidelines. Elements for RRS served as a proxy for the reporting quality, which includes both avoiding negative elements and providing positive ones. Not only the number of suicide news stories reduced by half in the last two observation periods, overall RRS scores and most individual RRS elements increased in the third period, compared to the first or second period. The avoidance RRS for headline, however, was not significantly improved. Korean news media also tended to be sensationalistic in using photos.

Effectiveness of a localised and systematically developed gatekeeper training program in preventing suicide among Chinese adolescents

To combat the pressing issue of contemporary suicide rates, an effective Life Gatekeeper training program was developed to educate school teachers in identifying and intervening with at-risk students. Two single-arm sequential studies evaluated the program's effectiveness, spanning implementation science stages from design to refinement. The initial study employed face-to-face training (FTF), followed by a standardized video-based 'Train-the-trainer' (TTT) approach. In Study 1, post-intervention and one-month follow-up results showed improved suicide literacy, reduced stigma, and increased willingness to intervene among gatekeepers. The revised TTT program (study 2) also yielded reduced stigmatization and improved intervention competence. In addition, six out of twenty teachers exhibited gatekeeper behaviors. In conclusion, both delivery methods proved effective, particularly the practical application of the TTT version, although further research is warranted to examine long-term effectiveness of the program.

Impacts of Complete Unemployment Rates Disaggregated by Reason and Duration on Suicide Mortality from 2009-2022 in Japan

In Japan, suicides had consistently decreased before the COVID-19 pandemic (from 2009-2019), but conversely increased after the pandemic outbreak (from 2020-2022). To identify the features of fluctuations of suicides in Japan, the standardized suicide mortality rates per 100,000 population (SMRP) disaggregated by gender (males/females) and age (10-year cohorts) from 2009-2022 were analyzed using interrupted time-series and joinpoint regression analyses. Temporal causalities from unemployment rate (CUR) disaggregated by unemployment duration and reasons for seeking work to SMRP were analyzed using vector autoregressive modelling with Granger causality analysis. SMRP fluctuations from 2009-2022 were composed of three patterns, such as positive discontinuity (increasing) synchronized with the pandemic outbreak, attenuations of decreasing trends before the pandemic, turning from decreasing before the pandemic to increasing/unchanging after the pandemic outbreak. Dismissal CUR positively related to SMRP of working-age generations, whereas voluntary CUR negatively related to SMRP of younger population (<30 years), which turned to persistently increasing before the pandemic (approximately 2016-2017). CUR shorter than 3 months positively related to SMRP of working-age females, which displayed promptly increasing synchronization with the pandemic outbreak. CUR longer than 12 months positively related to SMRP of working-age males, which contributed to persistently increasing SMRPs during the pandemic. These results suggest that increasing SMRP during 2020-2022 in Japan has been probably at-tributed to interactions among the pandemic-related factors, continuous vulnerabilities from before the pandemic and newly developing risk factors for suicides during the pandemic. Unexpectedly, increasing SMRPs of working-age males in 2022 suggest that either prolongation of the pandemic or the ending of the pandemic might positively affect suicides in Japan.

Increasing trend of deaths due to suicide attributable to mental disorders and substance use (disorders) in India

In this article we aim to assess the change in the deaths due to suicide attributable to mental disorders and substance use (disorders) in India over the past 26 years. We also aim to make projections over the coming years. For the deaths due to suicide attributable to mental disorders there was a biquadratic increasing trend with equations predicting 85.97%, 90.76% and 85.79% variance in the males, females and total deaths, respectively. There was a quadratic increase explaining 94.83% variance in males, 61.79% in females and 95.41% variance in deaths due to suicide attributable to substance use (disorders).

Suicidal Mortality and Motives Among Middle-School, High-School, and University Students

IMPORTANCE

The suicide mortality rate per 100 000 population (SMRP) consistently decreased before the COVID-19 pandemic outbreak in Japan and then unexpectedly increased during the pandemic. However, the underlying mechanisms remain poorly understood.

OBJECTIVE

To identify trends in and factors associated with suicidal mortality and motives among students in Japan from 2007 to 2022.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

In this cross-sectional study, data on SMRPs among Japanese middle-school, high-school, and university students were obtained from the government suicide database Suicide Statistics of the National Police Agency.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Age-dependent and temporal fluctuations in annual SMRPs, disaggregated by suicidal motive (7 categories and 52 subcategories), sex, and school, were analyzed using linear mixed-effect and joinpoint regression models, respectively.

RESULTS

Total suicide numbers from 2007 to 2022 were as follows: 760 male middle-school students, 635 female middle-school students, 2376 male high-school students, 1566 female high-school students, 5179 male university students, and 1880 female university students. The mean (SD) student populations from 2007 to 2022 were as follows: 1 752 737 (81 334) male middle-school students, 1 675 572 (78 824) female middle-school students, 1 648 274 (67 520) male high-school students, 1 614 828 (60 032) female high-school students, 1 652 689 (32 724) male university students, and 1 229 142 (57 484) female university students. Among male students, the leading motives were school-related factors (underachievement and worrying about the future), followed by family-related and health-related motives. Among female students, school-related and family-related motives decreased, but health-related motives showed an age-dependent increase. The SMRPs of middle-school male students and female students were almost equal (mean [SD], 2.7 [1.0] vs 2.4 [1.4]), but the age-dependent increase in SMRPs among male students was pronounced (mean [SD], high-school vs university male students, 9.1 [2.4] vs 19.6 [3.0]; high-school vs university female students, 6.1 [2.4] vs 9.6 [1.8]). However, the incidence of suicide among high-school students associated with health-related motives was greater in female students. The majority of suicides associated with major impactable suicidal motives (school-related, health-related, and family-related motives) began increasing before the pandemic. Changes in SMRP associated with interpersonal relationships, such as conflict with classmates or parents, were not significant, but the rates increased greatly during the pandemic.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

School-related, health-related, and family-related problems were major motives, whereas the impacts of health-related and family-related motives increased and decreased with age, respectively. Notably, most SMRPs associated with major impactable motives (underachievement, conflict with a parent or classmate, and mental illnesses) had already begun increasing in the late 2010s, indicating that recent increasing SMRPs among school-aged individuals were associated with pandemic-related factors and other factors affecting this generation before the pandemic. It may be inappropriate to uniformly apply research findings based on school-aged individuals to school-based suicide prevention programs for students in middle school, high school, and university.

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on suicide mortality in Spain: Differences by sex and age

BACKGROUND

Variations in suicide following the initial COVID-19 pandemic outbreak were heterogeneous across space, over time, and across population subgroup. Whether suicide has increased during the pandemic in Spain, a major initial COVID-19 hotspot, remains unclear, and no study has examined differences by sociodemographic group.

METHODS

We used 2016-2020 data on monthly suicide deaths from Spain's National Institute of Statistics. We implemented Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) models to control seasonality, non-stationarity, and autocorrelation. Using January 2016-March 2020 data, we predicted monthly suicide counts (95 % prediction intervals) between April and December 2020, and then compared observed and predicted monthly suicide counts. All calculations were conducted for the overall study population and by sex and age group.

RESULTS

Between April and December 2020, the number of suicides in Spain was 11 % higher-than-predicted. Monthly suicide counts were lower-than-expected in April 2020 and peaked in August 2020 with 396 observed suicides. Excess suicide counts were particularly salient during the summer of 2020 - largely driven by over 50 % higher-than-expected suicide counts among males aged 65 years and older in June, July, and August 2020.

DISCUSSION

The number of suicides increased in Spain during the months following the initial COVID-19 pandemic outbreak in Spain, largely driven by increases in suicides among older adults. Potential explanations underlying this phenomenon remain elusive. Important factors to understand these findings may include fear of contagion, isolation, and loss and bereavement - in the context of the particularly high mortality rates of older adults during the initial phases of the pandemic in Spain.

The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic and Lockdowns on Self-Poisoning and Suicide in Sri Lanka: An Interrupted Time Series Analysis

Evidence from high-income countries suggests that the impact of COVID-19 on suicide and self-harm has been limited, but evidence from low- and middle-income countries is lacking. Using data from a hospital-based self-poisoning register (January 2019-December 2021) and data from national records (2016-2021) of suicide in Sri Lanka, we aimed to assess the impact of the pandemic on both self-poisoning and suicide. We examined changes in admissions for self-poisoning and suicide using interrupted time series (ITS) analysis. For the self-poisoning hospital admission ITS models, we defined the lockdown periods as follows: (i) pre-lockdown: 01/01/2019-19/03/2020; (ii) first lockdown: 20/03/2020-27/06/2020; (iii) post-first lockdown: 28/06/2020-11/05/2021; (iv) second lockdown: 12/05/2021-21/06/2021; and (v) post-second lockdown: 22/06/2021-31/12/2021. For suicide, we defined the intervention according to the pandemic period. We found that during lockdown periods, there was a reduction in hospital admissions for self-poisoning, with evidence that admission following self-poisoning remained lower during the pandemic than would be expected based on pre-pandemic trends. In contrast, there was no evidence that the rate of suicide in the pandemic period differed from that which would be expected. As the long-term socioeconomic impacts of the pandemic are realised, it will be important to track rates of self-harm and suicide in LMICs to inform prevention.

Analyzing the changing relationship between personal consumption and suicide mortality during COVID-19 pandemic in Japan, using governmental and personal consumption transaction databases

During the early stages of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, suicides did not increase in most countries/regions. Japan, however, was an exception to this, reporting increased numbers of female suicides with no changes in male suicide. To explore the trends of increasing suicides, the fluctuations of personal consumption (as an indicator of lifestyle) and standardized suicide death rate (SDR) disaggregated by age, sex, and prefecture, were determined using a linear mixed-effect model. Additionally, fixed effects of personal consumption on SDR during the pandemic were also analyzed using hierarchical linear regression models with robust standard errors. During the first wave of the pandemic, SDR for both sexes decreased slightly but increased during the second half of 2020. SDR of females younger than 70 years old and males younger than 40 years old continued to increase throughout 2021, whereas SDR for other ages of both sexes did not increase. Personal consumption expenditures on out-of-home recreations (travel agencies, pubs, and hotels) and internet/mobile communication expenses decreased, but expenditures on home-based recreations (contents distribution) increased during the pandemic. Increased expenditures on internet/mobile communication were related to increasing SDR of both sexes. Increasing expenditures on content distributions were related to increasing females' SDR without affecting that of males. Decreasing expenditures on pubs were related to increasing SDR of both sexes in the non-metropolitan region. These findings suggest that transformed individual lifestyles, extended time at home with a decreased outing for contact with others, contributed to the progression of isolation as a risk of suicide. Unexpectedly, increasing compensatory contact with others using internet/mobile communication enhanced isolation resulting in increased suicide risk.

Suicide numbers during the first 9-15 months of the COVID-19 pandemic compared with pre-existing trends: An interrupted time series analysis in 33 countries

BACKGROUND

Predicted increases in suicide were not generally observed in the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the picture may be changing and patterns might vary across demographic groups. We aimed to provide a timely, granular picture of the pandemic's impact on suicides globally.

METHODS

We identified suicide data from official public-sector sources for countries/areas-within-countries, searching websites and academic literature and contacting data custodians and authors as necessary. We sent our first data request on 22nd June 2021 and stopped collecting data on 31st October 2021. We used interrupted time series (ITS) analyses to model the association between the pandemic's emergence and total suicides and suicides by sex-, age- and sex-by-age in each country/area-within-country. We compared the observed and expected numbers of suicides in the pandemic's first nine and first 10-15 months and used meta-regression to explore sources of variation.

FINDINGS

We sourced data from 33 countries (24 high-income, six upper-middle-income, three lower-middle-income; 25 with whole-country data, 12 with data for area(s)-within-the-country, four with both). There was no evidence of greater-than-expected numbers of suicides in the majority of countries/areas-within-countries in any analysis; more commonly, there was evidence of lower-than-expected numbers. Certain sex, age and sex-by-age groups stood out as potentially concerning, but these were not consistent across countries/areas-within-countries. In the meta-regression, different patterns were not explained by countries' COVID-19 mortality rate, stringency of public health response, economic support level, or presence of a national suicide prevention strategy. Nor were they explained by countries' income level, although the meta-regression only included data from high-income and upper-middle-income countries, and there were suggestions from the ITS analyses that lower-middle-income countries fared less well.

INTERPRETATION

Although there are some countries/areas-within-countries where overall suicide numbers and numbers for certain sex- and age-based groups are greater-than-expected, these countries/areas-within-countries are in the minority. Any upward movement in suicide numbers in any place or group is concerning, and we need to remain alert to and respond to changes as the pandemic and its mental health and economic consequences continue.

FUNDING

None.

Suicide and self-harm in low- and middle- income countries during the COVID-19 pandemic: A systematic review

There is widespread concern over the potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on suicide and self-harm globally, particularly in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC) where the burden of these behaviours is greatest. We synthesised the evidence from the published literature on the impact of the pandemic on suicide and self-harm in LMIC. This review is nested within a living systematic review (PROSPERO ID CRD42020183326) that continuously identifies published evidence (all languages) through a comprehensive automated search of multiple databases (PubMed; Scopus; medRxiv, PsyArXiv; SocArXiv; bioRxiv; the WHO COVID-19 database; and the COVID-19 Open Research Dataset by Semantic Scholar (up to 11/2020), including data from Microsoft Academic, Elsevier, arXiv and PubMed Central.) All articles identified by the 4th August 2021 were screened. Papers reporting on data from a LMIC and presenting evidence on the impact of the pandemic on suicide or self-harm were included. Methodological quality was assessed using an appropriate tool, and a narrative synthesis presented. A total of 22 studies from LMIC were identified representing data from 12 countries. There was an absence of data from Africa, the Pacific, and the Caribbean. The reviewed studies mostly report on the early months of COVID-19 and were generally methodologically poor. Few studies directly assessed the impact of the pandemic. The most robust evidence, from time-series studies, indicate either a reduction or no change in suicide and self-harm behaviour. As LMIC continue to experience repeated waves of the virus and increased associated mortality, against a backdrop of vaccine inaccessibility and limited welfare support, continued efforts are needed to track the indirect impact of the pandemic on suicide and self-harm in these countries.