Dependence assessment in human reliability analysis using an evidential network approach extended by belief rules and uncertainty measures

An improved OWA-Fuzzy AHP decision model for multi-attribute decision making problem

Multi-attribute decision-making (MADM) is an important part of modern decision-making science. Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (Fuzzy AHP) is a popular model to deal with the issue of MADM for its flexible and effective advantages. However, The traditional Fuzzy AHP with some limitations does not consider the preference (attitude) of decision makers (DMs). In addition, some ideas of combining Ordered Weighted Average (OWA) and Fuzzy AHP don’t investigated the MADM well. Some programs are only applicable to a few examples, and more general cases do not result in effective decision making. Considering these shortcomings, an OWA-Fuzzy AHP decision model using OWA weights and Fuzzy AHP is proposed in this paper. Our contribution is that the proposed method can handle situations where the degree of fuzzy synthesis is not intersected. Moreover, the loss of information can be reduced in the process of applying the proposed method, so that the decision result is more reasonable than the previous methods. Several examples and comparative experimental simulation are given to illustrate the effectiveness and superiority of the proposed model.

An Improved Multi-Source Data Fusion Method Based on the Belief Entropy and Divergence Measure

Dempster–Shafer (DS) evidence theory is widely applied in multi-source data fusion technology. However, classical DS combination rule fails to deal with the situation when evidence is highly in conflict. To address this problem, a novel multi-source data fusion method is proposed in this paper. The main steps of the proposed method are presented as follows. Firstly, the credibility weight of each piece of evidence is obtained after transforming the belief Jenson–Shannon divergence into belief similarities. Next, the belief entropy of each piece of evidence is calculated and the information volume weights of evidence are generated. Then, both credibility weights and information volume weights of evidence are unified to generate the final weight of each piece of evidence before the weighted average evidence is calculated. Then, the classical DS combination rule is used multiple times on the modified evidence to generate the fusing results. A numerical example compares the fusing result of the proposed method with that of other existing combination rules. Further, a practical application of fault diagnosis is presented to illustrate the plausibility and efficiency of the proposed method. The experimental result shows that the targeted type of fault is recognized most accurately by the proposed method in comparing with other combination rules.

Time Series Data Fusion Based on Evidence Theory and OWA Operator

Time series data fusion is important in real applications such as target recognition based on sensors' information. The existing credibility decay model (CDM) is not efficient in the situation when the time interval between data from sensors is too long. To address this issue, a new method based on the ordered weighted aggregation operator (OWA) is presented in this paper. With the improvement to use the Q function in the OWA, the effect of time interval on the final fusion result is decreased. The application in target recognition based on time series data fusion illustrates the efficiency of the new method. The proposed method has promising aspects in time series data fusion.

Multi-Attribute Decision Making Method Based on Aggregated Neutrosophic Set

Multi-attribute decision-making refers to the decision-making problem of selecting the optimal alternative or sorting the scheme when considering multiple attributes, which is widely used in engineering design, economy, management and military, etc. But in real application, the attribute information of many objects is often inaccurate or uncertain, so it is very important for us to find a useful and efficient method to solve the problem. Neutrosophic set is proposed from philosophical point of view to handle inaccurate information efficiently, and a single-valued neutrosophic set (SVNS) is a special case of neutrosophic set, which is widely used in actual application fields. In this paper, a new method based on single-valued neutrosophic sets aggregation to solve multi-attribute decision making problem is proposed. Firstly, the neutrosophic decision matrix is obtained by expert assessment, a score function of single-valued neutrosophic sets (SVNSs) is defined to obtain the positive ideal solution (PIS) and the negative ideal solution (NIS). Then all alternatives are aggregated based on TOPSIS method to make decision. Finally numerical examples are given to verify the feasibility and rationality of the method.

Negation of Belief Function Based on the Total Uncertainty Measure

The negation of probability provides a new way of looking at information representation. However, the negation of basic probability assignment (BPA) is still an open issue. To address this issue, a novel negation method of basic probability assignment based on total uncertainty measure is proposed in this paper. The uncertainty of non-singleton elements in the power set is taken into account. Compared with the negation method of a probability distribution, the proposed negation method of BPA differs becausethe BPA of a certain element is reassigned to the other elements in the power set where the weight of reassignment is proportional to the cardinality of intersection of the element and each remaining element in the power set. Notably, the proposed negation method of BPA reduces to the negation of probability distribution as BPA reduces to classical probability. Furthermore, it is proved mathematically that our proposed negation method of BPA is indeed based on the maximum uncertainty.

Bayesian Update with Information Quality under the Framework of Evidence Theory

Bayesian update is widely used in data fusion. However, the information quality is not taken into consideration in classical Bayesian update method. In this paper, a new Bayesian update with information quality under the framework of evidence theory is proposed. First, the discounting coefficient is determined by information quality. Second, the prior probability distribution is discounted as basic probability assignment. Third, the basic probability assignments from different sources can be combined with Dempster's combination rule to obtain the fusion result. Finally, with the aid of pignistic probability transformation, the combination result is converted to posterior probability distribution. A numerical example and a real application in target recognition show the efficiency of the proposed method. The proposed method can be seen as the generalized Bayesian update. If the information quality is not considered, the proposed method degenerates to the classical Bayesian update.

A Neutrosophic Set Based Fault Diagnosis Method Based on Multi-Stage Fault Template Data

Fault diagnosis is an important issue in various fields and aims to detect and identify the faults of systems, products, and processes. The cause of a fault is complicated due to the uncertainty of the actual environment. Nevertheless, it is difficult to consider uncertain factors adequately with many traditional methods. In addition, the same fault may show multiple features and the same feature might be caused by different faults. In this paper, a neutrosophic set based fault diagnosis method based on multi-stage fault template data is proposed to solve this problem. For an unknown fault sample whose fault type is unknown and needs to be diagnosed, the neutrosophic set based on multi-stage fault template data is generated, and then the generated neutrosophic set is fused via the simplified neutrosophic weighted averaging (SNWA) operator. Afterwards, the fault diagnosis results can be determined by the application of defuzzification method for a defuzzying neutrosophic set. Most kinds of uncertain problems in the process of fault diagnosis, including uncertain information and inconsistent information, could be handled well with the integration of multi-stage fault template data and the neutrosophic set. Finally, the practicality and effectiveness of the proposed method are demonstrated via an illustrative example.